Forum Blue and Gold

Fast Break

2005-09-10T23:04:00.000-07:00

This site has moved to forumblueandgold.com. Just follow that link and come discuss the Lakers and the NBA with some smart and fun fans.

Things are slow in Lakerland, add to that I’ve been busy working on some site upgrades (that should go live before the start of training camp, ideally) and some other surprises and that has meant new posts have been getting the short end of the stick. For example, I started to put together a “what is the triangle” post but decided to save that for closer to the start of camp (or just after the start) when talk of Xs and Os will be a little more fresh and relevant. That’s not to mention Laker and other previews and comments. I’ve got a couple of ideas for the next couple of weeks, but if you have any thoughts or suggestions on good topics for discussion, put them in the comments or send me an email. Or if you just have site suggestions in general, send them along, That said, a couple of notes and thoughts: • Remember Sunday night at 11 p.m. on TNT is the NBA fundraiser game for victims of hurricane Katrina, so tune in for an offensive show (and All-Star game quality defense). Kobe had some good thoughts on the game and the tragedy. Also, if you have not donated yet and can do so, the victims do need your money and anything else you can spare. • Hoopsanalyst has a nice look back on the career of Hall of Fame inductee Hubie Brown. • A little fun with stats. Kobe averaged 27.1 points per 40 minutes last season. But what if you broke that down and did a per-40 average when another specific player was on the floor — or, more simply, what returning player led Kobe to score more per 40 with him on the floor? Surprisingly, it’s Sasha. Kobe averaged 31.8 per 40 when he was on the floor. Second was Jumaine Jones with 31.5. What if you did the same thing with Lamar Odom? Lamar averaged 16.9 per 40 last season, but that jumped to 17.8 when Luke Walton was on the floor. Again Jumaine Jones was second with 17.6. One thing Sasha and Luke have in common is they are good passers, so that may account for some of the increase. They also are both questionable shooters, leading the guys who can shoot to take more on themselves, that may be a reason for the jumps as well. Don’t read too much into this data (unless you are Phil Jackson, in which case go over to this data on 82games and think about who should be playing more together — and why Jumaine Jones seemed to make people better). • The Damon Jones signing was a great pick up for Cleveland, he’ll be a good fit with LeBron and Hughes, and he will likely lead the league in three pointers. • How about my Notre Dame Fighting Irish now?

Need A Hoops Fix?

2005-09-07T11:00:00.000-07:00

It’s less than a month until training camp opens, but time is dragging now and there is little NBA news anywhere. The good news is it looks like this Sunday, when not watching the first week of my NFL office pool go down in flames, I can get a basketball fix — including some Kobe:

All-Stars LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire and Dwyane Wade will play in an NBA Players Hurricane Relief Game organized by TNT analyst Kenny Smith. The game is Sunday at 6 p.m. EDT at the Toyota Center and will be televised by TNT at 11 p.m. Participating players will donate funds and supplies valued at more than $1 million for victims of Hurricane Katrina.

For those of you who want a little fix before Sunday, Eric Pincus has rounded up all the latest rumors — including dreams of what to do with that 2007 cap space — and if you want to daydream like it was still the warm days of summer (not that its really cooled down any), it’s a good read. But be careful not to get to sucked into the what-ifs and think they will become reality. One rumor that has picked up steam and is mentioned not only by Pincus but also other publications and their “league sources” is a sign-and-trade for former UCLA Bruin Jason Kapono. Jason is not a great defender (an unimpressive defensive rating of 111 last year, 5 points above the league average, and he guarded mostly threes and they shot 52.9% when he was on the floor) and doesn’t create his own shot well. But, he was still a +5.3 per 48 minutes last year (meaning the Bobcats were that much better with him on the floor than off it) and the boy can shoot the three — 42.4% since he entered the league. I guess my only question is what are you giving up to get a three-point specialist to back up Kobe? An early rumor was Devean George, which is way to steep a price, you can get more for George (who is solid and a last year contract). If it were someone less, this would fit in with the “I don’t love it but what the heck” bench the Lakers have assembled. One other note, Kareem met with the media yesterday after his first workout with Andrew Bynum, and the reports are good.

"He's not a raw kind of talent. He's got some sophistication to his basketball game, and I think he will progress quickly."

Don’t expect Bynum to play much this season, but if he can progress next year maybe he starts to see some time off the bench. Also, keep reading down in that LA Times piece to see Tex Winter will be back as a consultant to teach the triangle. Good to hear. Finally, the Lakers signed rookie Devin Green, who played well in the Summer Pro League, to a training camp contract. This is a guy who will not make the team, but more bodies are needed in camp.

A Time Of Innocence

2005-09-05T23:43:00.000-07:00

They call him “Dr. J.” The ABA’s leading scorer in 1972-73, Julius creates the flow of the game. He has a great imagination of the court and is an artist with the basketball.

Those words are on the back of Julius Erving’s 73-74 basketball card, and that was my introduction to one of the games greats. I was too young to really know anything about rival leagues and fights for players, I just remember it was over at a friends house where his dad was watching basketball that I first saw that league with the funny-colored ball. That memory and more came back to me the other day when, in unpacking from my recent move, I came across my binder of my best sports cards. There are baseball, football, a few hockey and, of course, basketball. The Dr. J in his third season ABA card — complete with a photo inset of him that can’t contain his ‘fro — is just one of them. And they bring back a flood of memories. That’s because my cards were not purchased with future value in mind. My first cards came when I would go with my dad to the local liquor store/food mart to pick up milk or eggs or whatever it was we needed — my dad would throw a pack of cards I picked out in with it. I’d open the cards in the car and show him what I got, and even try to chew the cardboard-quality gum inside. Later I’d get together with my two friends on the street, Chuck and Jeff, and we’d trade. (I hesitate to think about how many Walter Payton rookie cards I traded away, I still have two but remember thinking I seemed to get one in every pack and who was this new guy anyway?) Later, when we were old enough, the three friends would ride our bikes to the clown liquor store in North Hollywood (I wonder if it is still there, the one with the huge clown as the sign) and buy our own cards. I’ve got a few Dr, J cards from his ABA days with the Nets. There’s also cards such as John Havlicek (“John was drafted by the Cleveland Browns” is the tidbit on him), Bill Walton, Adrian Dantley, Pete Maravich and more great players that I saw little of but got to learn about, and see the stats of, thanks to those cards. Then there were the players I did get to see. I have the 73-74 and 74-75 Jerry West cards (West also has a photo inset headshot, but his hair fits within the circle). There’s the card celebrating the 71-72 championship Lakers, compete with Wilt pulling down a rebound. There are some cards that mean more to me now than they did then — Pat Riley, wearing the number 17 that now belongs to Andrew Bynum. There’s Phil Jackson with the Knicks circa 74-75, where you can learn he was the dominant player at North Dakota University when he played there. I also have Phil in the oversized Tops cards from 76-77, where he looks almost graceful shooting a hook shot over Wes Unseld (I think). Other cards just have players that I rarely think of any more but smile when I do — Artis Gilmore, Alvan Adams, David Thompson, Dave DeBusschere, Connie Hawkins, Jo Jo White and Cazzie Russell. Just to name a few. It all transports me back to a time when basketball was more innocent and pure to me because I was those things. It’s good for me, before training camp starts and when I’m fretting over the Lakers lack of a bench, to remember that as much as I love the team I also love the game. The purity of it. And that sometimes I should just sit back and enjoy how much fun it is to watch Phoenix run the break or LeBron James make his teammates better. That’s what’s really important. I’m glad I pulled out that binder.

Why Are You Reading This?

2005-09-04T23:17:00.000-07:00

Shouldn’t you be out at a barbeque right now? Enjoying the last days of summer rather than being in front of a computer? Well, for those who stopped by, thanks for coming, but there is little Laker news to report. Here are a couple things: • The Lakers have hired Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as a “special assistant coach,” which is a fancy way of saying a mentor and tutor for Andrew Bynum. It’s a good choice — Kareem’s fundamentals were always solid, a sign of good coaching. Hopefully he can pass that along. • Interesting comment over at Hoopsanalyst about the Aaron McKie pick up:

On the one hand, McKie’s career is basically at that same point that Ron Harper’s was when Jackson embraced playing him in place of an actual point guard back in 1995-96. But McKie has always been a bit more lumbering as a guard than Harper was and it’s possible that he won’t have the same cache with Jackson (remember Jackson buried Mitch Richmond on the bench in 2001-02). I don’t know how this will turn out, but I’m suggesting it’s more possible than you might initially think that McKie could find himself buried on the bench.

• TNT analyst and former Rocket Kenny Smith is trying to organize an NBA all-star game with the proceeds benefiting victims of hurricane Katrina. He said big NBA names are interested, I hope he can pull it off. • Though next Thursday I’ll be subbing in for Henry over at True Hoops, posting some NBA news and opinions.

Fast Break

2005-09-02T10:13:00.000-07:00

Basketball has seemed very trivial these last few days. One of the things little discussed on this site is that I’m a big believer in volunteering — that living in a well-off nation as I do and in the manner I do is of great fortune, and I should give back. For the past few years I have done that by giving what free time I can (and money I can) to the Red Cross. I already know several people sent from Southern California to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, and many more will follow them. If I could, I would. But what we can all do is try to help people in need on this end. You can donate to the Red Cross, or you can donate through a host of other reputable organizations that will ensure your money will go to the right place. Help with what you can — to me helping out those in need is a basic quality of humanity. A few Laker/NBA notes: • The latest Carnival of the NBA is up at the new and good Sacramento Kings blog. Not only is the Carnival worth reading, check back to this site during the season because Tom's blog may be new but he is doing good work. • In case you didn’t see it, the Laker assistant coaches this season will be Brian Shaw, Kurt Rambis and Frank Hamblin. Why do I think Shaw is the coach in waiting when Phil steps down? • Yao signed a max deal to stay in Houston. This should not be a surprise. Don’t expect Amare or LeBron to leave their situations either (not impossible but not likely). Having cap space available in a few years is a good thing, but in today’s NBA climate it seems better suited for filling in pieces than getting a core player. • I don’t really get the rumor of Earl Watson going to Denver. Oh, I get why he'd do it — they are offering him the most money. I’m curious how he will fit in Denver, however. Would Andre Miller start at the point but spend time at the two when Boykins and Watson come off the bench? • Tomorrow night at 5 p.m. (Pacific) you can find me with a beer in my hand, sitting with friends in an Irish pub watching Notre Dame football kick off the season. Hoops is still my favorite sport, but there are few things I look forward to as much as watching football with friends.

Good Steps For Team USA

2005-08-31T11:05:00.000-07:00

It’ll be next summer at the World Championships before we really know (or maybe the 2008 Olympics), but the early indications are that USA Basketball may have learned some valuable lessons from the 2004 debacle in Athens. Case in point: The rape trial kept Kobe out of the last Olympics, but it appears the new efforts to build a team better designed to play international ball for 2008 will include Kobe, according to team architect Jerry Colangelo.

"I've gotten word that (Bryant) is waiting for a call," Colangelo said. "I think this would be a great opportunity for him." The olive branch extended to Bryant means there is no chance of Shaquille O'Neal playing for Team USA, although he's not the type of player Colangelo is looking for, anyway.

There are good signs out of this quote, and it has nothing to do with whether or not Kobe dons a USA jersey in 2006 or 2008 (although I think he should). Rather, that quote starts to show that Colangelo and USA Basketball gets what it needs to do. Bringing in Kobe means the team is looking players who can shoot from the perimeter — particularly the three. If there was one clear deficiency in Athens it was that Team USA, to use a Chickism, couldn’t throw a pea in the ocean. It sounds as if Colangelo is looking to build a team suited to play the international style of basketball — and he’s right, Shaq doesn’t fit that. He really never did, although a younger (fitter) Shaq still would have caused so many problems and was such a physical force he would have been unstoppable on any court or in any style. This needs to be a more perimeter based and versatile team, with bigs who can play inside and out and not just a plethora of slasher guards. Kobe can fit right in that on the perimeter. That Colangelo is thinking along those lines is a good sign. By the way, I don’t buy into the “the USA team lacked fundamentals” argument. Yes, jump shooting is a fundamental, but the core of that argument is that USA players couldn’t or wouldn’t pass (Team USA led the Olympics in assists, and it wasn’t close), had no idea how to play team ball (despite only being thrown together for that tournament) or that they didn’t care. I think it was pretty clear they did if you watched the games, but the deck was stacked against them. In putting together a team that could sell jerseys but was not built for the international game (where the three-point line is more like college and the base of the lane is wider) Team USA was expected to win on pure talent. They needed shooters but Michael Redd never got an invite. To add to the problems they brought in a great coach (Larry Brown) but again whose teams do not play a style that fits well internationally. Plus, Brown didn’t want to play his kids so LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Amare Stoudemire were glorified spectators, despite their game being better suited to the Olympics than some that played a lot. What you were left with is a team that scored 105 points per 100 possessions and gave up 103 (the tournament average was 103). For comparison, the original dream team averaged 116 and gave up 105 (tournament average 108). Dean Oliver has these and other numbers in a great piece he did on problems with the Olympic team last year. Team USA needs to get its act together because it is clear the rest of the world is catching up on pure talent. Check out this work by Dan Rosenbaum, showing just how much of the young talent in the NBA is imported. I think bringing in Colangelo was a good first step, although more needs to be done. USA Basketball needs to tell the NBA what players it wants, not the other way around. Shooters, versatile big men, a couple of shut down defenders. Basically, a team, not a collection of stars. Also, they need a full time coach. It was pretty clear Larry Brown and staff did little or no scouting — when opponents big men wandered away from the basket out to the three-point line USA players watched them go, a bad move in international ball where bigs can shoot the three. That happened way too often and in key situations. A full time USA coach could scout these things. Plus, it would bring a consistent system and style to Team USA, as opposed to an All-Star game every four years. We’ll see what happens — remember one of the big problems last time was so many NBA stars turning the team down. The days the USA can just roll the ball out and win on talent alone are gone, this needs to be a team now. It sounds like they are moving in the right direction.

Fast Break:

2005-08-29T10:23:00.000-07:00

I swear, if the equipment doesn’t show up today to hook up my cable modem in the new house, I may kill someone. Dial-up is making me Jack Nicholson in “The Shining” crazy and angry. Sorry for those of you out there using dial-up, but high speed, once you have it you just can’t go back — sort of like cell phones. There may be other popular analogies, but I have no first-hand experience with those. Anyway, a few Laker thoughts for a Monday: • Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld talked to Mitch Kupchak this week and, basically, the Laker roster you see now appears to be what you’ll see on opening night in Denver.

"I think as far as the nucleus of the team, I think we’re done. I don’t anticipate that we look to sign another free agent.

Pincus is suggesting there may be a trade for a backup center, but don’t expect big changes (despite the pining for Eddie Curry or Earl Watson). • What that leaves the Lakers is a starting five that is pretty strong and the kind of flexible lineup that should work well in the triangle — McKie, Kobe, Odom, Kwame, Mihm. But if the Lakers are really going to do much those guys are going to have to play starting minutes like last season’s Phoenix Suns — the drop off to the bench talent is steep. Luke Walton can play some minutes at the two or three, as can Jumaine Jones and Devean George. But right now your backup points guards are Sasha and Smush, and the backups at the 4/5 are Cook, Slava and maybe Vlade. Possibly there can be a rotation that has Mihm sit first and Kwame go to the five, with Cook playing some 4, but that is a potential defensive disaster inside. (In that scenario, Mihm would come in for Kwame, then Kwame eventually re-enters for Cook, but I really don’t like the combos outside of Kwame/Mihm.) • Who watched the MTV Video Music Awards last night? Neither did I. But I may try to catch the “red carpet” portion of the show during the unending reruns just to see Snoop Dogg roll up in a low-rider decked out in Laker colors, and wearing a hat signed by Laker greats. • One quick note on the Aaron McKie signing — his entire career McKie has worn the number 8, but that’s not happening in Los Angeles. McKie will wear 2 instead.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

2005-08-26T12:32:00.000-07:00

No, I’m not changing the focus of this blog, but as a football fan (particularly college, especially one university that already has a great blog following it) I’m happy to see the season ready to get rolling again. Along those lines, if you like the statistical bent of this site then there are a couple of football sites you might want to check out. One is Football Outsiders, a site that uses a lot of “value over average” style statistics to help break down football games (for those familiar with baseball sabermetrics, think of it like value over replacement player stats). Among the writers for this site is Kevin Pelton, a guy whose very insightful work on advanced basketball statistics I've quoted here and who has been a good friend of the site (even if he is a Sonics fan). Roland Beech, the man who brought us one of my favorite hoops sites, 82games.com, has a football site as well called Two Minute Warning. It has things like stats for team drives and for individual players things such as points per play used (a nice stat for those pulling together fantasy teams). Finally, ESPN.com has added a guy they are calling the football scientist, who does intensive game charting then breaks down statistics out of that. He’s on the pay-to-view Insider pages but if you’re already forking over cash for the mostly overrated “insider” stuff check him out (John Hollinger and Rob Neyer are two key exceptions to the overrated tag, by the way). All the football sites focus more on predictions (often against the spread) than do similar basketball or baseball sites, largely because there is such a demand from people who may bet on football (I have no idea who these people are, cough, cough). Still, if you’re into the stats or football these are worth checking out.

Thoughts Through A Hangover

2005-08-25T10:01:00.000-07:00

I really don’t go out much on “school nights” anymore, but as last night was our anniversary my wife and I lined up a babysitter and we were off to splurge on a wine dinner at a fine restaurant. It was well worth it, great food (amazing seared ahi and steak courses)and plenty of great wine (love the St. Francis old vine Zin), but today is a tad hazy — this post is brought to you by a Peter King-level caffeine intake. • There’s an interesting discussion in the comments thread for my last “Fast Break” post about learning to play the triangle that is worth the read. Regular commenter Renato Afanso (who has explained why I regularly get hits from Portugal) said he has been playing the system in club and college teams overseas:

The system is incredibly easy. If you have the fundamentals and you understand some easy concepts of the game, the system allows you to get easy shots out of picks 9 feet from the basket. It also allows you to play with the center at mid-post (a good passing center like Divac would thrive with the system... Problem is that most kids just want to do some flashy moves and dunk over someone, and forget to learn the rest... maybe that's the problem in US college basketball right now. But that's a subject for another post, isn't it?

SI.com’s Kelly Dwyer (who also knows the offesne well) points out in a subsequent post that the problem in teaching it is not the offense itself but rather getting the players to grasp the concepts behind it, to understand Tex Winter’s seven Principals of a sound offense. I have read some of Tex Winters writings, but not the entire book on the offense. It didn’t seem exceptionally challenging to me, however I assumed that often things are different in execution than on paper. I think the comments made by those more knowledgeable than I about this pertaining to basketball IQ and the need to subjugate yourself (and your stats) for team goals — and that not always meshing with NBA players (or college, for that matter) — may be a big part of the challenge coaches face with the triangle. (That adds to why Phil needs a real buy-in from Kobe to make this work this season.) As for Vlade (another part of that comment thread). I would love to have him back, providing his back is up to it. I think I’ve said this before — if he can play 15-20 minutes a night for 70 or so games, then bring him back because his passing skills will be a great fit with the triangle (they were in just seven games last year) and he should be a good influence on Andrew Bynum. Well, not the smoking but in pretty much everything else. However, if Vlade can only play as much as he did last year, then that’s a wasted roster spot. • As for Laker news, there isn’t much. Hoopsworld’s Eric Pincus said don’t expect to see Jalen Rose or Marcus Banks in a Laker uniform, or for that matter Eddy Curry. He suggests the Laker will make another move in the coming weeks, but it won’t be a blockbuster. • And Eric, congrats on Maya! Glad to hear everyone is doing well. • In case you didn’t read it, check out the interview with Laker owner-in-waiting Jim Buss from the LA Times yesterday (all the other area dailies also had the interview). • Finally, if you wondered what Brian Cook has been up to this off-season, well, golfing. But for a good cause. • By the way, late last week this blog hit the minor milestone of getting its 50,000th visitor. While the site has been around basically since the start of last season, the first few months it was little more than just me and my parents coming here. Since the hiring of Phil and through the summer readership had really exploded (I expect to pass 100,000 during the second half of next season). I just want to say welcome to everyone, please join in the comments and know that there will be some improvements to this site and some other exciting (for me) changes come in the coming months. It's great to be forming a community of passionate and intelligent Laker fans and I look forward to that making this next season even more enjoyable.

Fast Break

2005-08-22T10:57:00.000-07:00

A few things worth talking about (besides the end of Six Feet Under, which has crushed my wife) on a Monday morning. • Aaron McKie is now a Laker. I’ve written about him before. I’m concerned about how well he can cover the quick point guards of the league, but he does fit what Phil Jackson generally likes in his points and he’s still solid on the offensive end. The other question is just how much have McKie’s skills declined as he's aged and how much can be resurrected. Add McKie to the long list of “ifs” the Lakers have coming into the season (if they can play team defense, if Kwame can play to his potential night in and night out, if…). This may be a decent stopgap answer or he may spend more time on the bench than we’d like, but at least it’s just a two-year deal. • Apparently the Lakers made the same offer, $2.5 million per year for two years, to both McKie and Derek Anderson, and McKie was the first to respond so he gets the job. If that’s true, it’s an interesting way to choose your starting point guard. • The good news is the Lakers have half of their mid-level exception left — $2.5 million. There are two options on spending that money as I see it: 1) Go get a backup center and have Sasha and Smush as your back up point guards; 2) Go get a defensive stopper at the point (and that does not mean Tyrone Lue) and have Vlade come back as the backup center. • Make sure to read the bottom of Saturday's Laker report in the LA Times to get a status update on Ronny Turiaf, who is already walking on a court and dribbling a basketball. If there’s one guy I want to see make it back…. • In case you missed it in the LA Times Magazine over the weekend, interesting story about former Sparks power forward Latasha Byears. She was let go by the Sparks after a sexual assault charge. The comparison to Kobe Bryant’s case is a bit of a reach (and we’re not going to have a discussion about the merits of that case on this site), but I will say this — as long as sports is a business, players who can add to the bottom line, and Kobe is certainly one who does, will get all the breaks they can. Steve Howe comes to mind. Byears realizes that she was a bench player on a team and in a league that loses money and is very image conscious, making her vulnerable. But her biggest questions are good ones — was she treated differently because this case made widely known she was gay? Is the WNBA so concerned about it’s image, trying so hard to reach out to the “average American,” that it would let her go to protect its image? • The Sporting News has a story up about statistics in sports that gives a little love to poeple I admire such as Dean Oliver, John Hollinger and Roland Beech, among others. Nothing groundbreaking, but worth the read if you enjoy this kind of thing. • A good laugh for the day: Shooting guard turned boxer Kendall Gill wants another shot at the NBA and said he’d like it with the Lakers (thanks to Ben Maller for finding the link). I’d love to have Gill if we can invent a time machine and bring the 1995 version into camp. However, I'm not going to say anything too bad about Gill because I'm pretty sure I lose a fight with him.

Wilt, 1962, Reviewed

2005-08-19T14:54:00.000-07:00

There may be no more mythically intimidating player in the history of basketball than Wilt Chamberlain. And 1962 was the year of his most famed achievement, the 100 point game. That's at the heart of a new book by Gary Pomerantz, who looks at Wilt in that year and in the context of those times. Scott Thompson — who posters here know as Gatinho, one of the most insightful and regular commenters on this site — read the book while on vacation and has written a review. (Why he was reading a book while in Brazil is another question for another day.) I'm proud to post it here, and I think it's safe to say he recommends it. "The Hershey Sports Arena had aged like Dorian Gray: not at all..." When reading a sports book, an avid reader of many genres' (or an English teacher's) first thoughts as they begin are, "Is this going to be a sports novel that takes a stab at the literary or a piece of literature that happens to be about sports." Pomerantz strikes a balance melding story-telling with poignant historical and social insights, sweetened with a load of head scratching Wilt stats some of which you just can't get your head around (55 rebounds in a game against Bill Russell, allegedly a better rebounder). In the legendary 100-point game, Wilt handled the ball 125 times, had 63 shots, 32 free throws, 25 rebounds, and played all 48 minutes. The previous record was 73 points (also Wilt´s) in triple overtime. No player has gone over 75 since that night and the last player who came close in recent history was David Robinson with 71 and he had the help of the Clippers. Only four players have broken 70: David Thompson, Wilt, Robinson, and the original Laker gunner, Elgin Baylor. Wilt,1962, by Gary Pomerantz, was reflective of the format that Jane Leavy used in her 2003 book "Sandy Koufax: A Lefty's Legacy" chronicling Koufax´s perfect game set against the backdrop of the Watts riots. Alternating chapters, she moved from a pitch by pitch recount of the Game to chapters about Koufax and his social relevance as an icon of the Jewish Community. Alternating between insights into the characters involved in this John Henry style achievement and a minute by minute recap of the contest, Pomerantz mimics this style in his painstakingly researched novel analyzing "The Night of 100 points and the Dawn of a New Era." In arguing about the ability of a Shaq against a Wilt or Bill Russell, I always griped that, "Wilt was playing against a league that was on average 5 to 6 inches shorter than it is today." Thus diminishing the efforts of Wilt with visions of an adult playing against a child on an 8 foot rim. But Pomerantz's account lifted away those misconceptions and showed what a workman-like, lunch pail and hard hat effort this really was. Had he not missed the lay up, he would have scored the 99th and 100th points on a steal of the inbounds pass. Elgin Baylor, who predicted that Wilt would score a hundred in an interview with Chick Hearn just a month before he did, and Jerry West, whose 63 that year (24 in the third quarter, a Laker record) against the same pathetic Knick team that Wilt got historic on, are mentioned prominently in the book as the only two players of the time who could be mentioned in the same conversations about scoring as Wilt. Laker fans will also recognize Dipperisms (Pomerantz calls him the Dipper throughout the book being as that was what Wilt preferred — he hated "The Stilt") like "my boom-boom move" and "no one roots for Goliath" as having been "bitten" by one 340 pound South Beach resident. Finally, Pomerantz unveils the NBA´s unwritten racial code of the time concerning African-American players and their implicit playing restrictions: "One at home, two on the road, and three if you are losing." He places that into the context of the present NBA and its continuing difficulty of appealing to middle America. Interestingly, the criticism of the NBA then was that they were scoring too many points and that the average American Joe couldn't relate to the "glandular goons" who were taking over the game. Sadly, to this day the same types of criticisms exist, dripping with their thinly veiled racial undertones,(lack of fundamentals, a one on one game, the playground/Spostscenter highlight reel influence) as echoes of the NBA´s past and the shift caused by The Dipper's seminal performance penetrate the modern game. If you want to check out the box score from Wilt's big game, here it is.

Aaron McKie: A Quick Look

2005-08-18T10:17:00.000-07:00

Which past-his-prime, tall guard being converted to the play point sounds better to you, Derek Anderson or Aaron McKie? According to the Los Angeles Times, the Lakers are looking at McKie, who just got set free in the formerly-Alan-Houston-rule-now-the-Jerome-Williams-rule cuts. Since he’s on the radar, let’s take a quick look at McKie. McKie played in 21 more games than Anderson last season but still played 121 fewer minutes than Anderson, averaging just 16.4 minutes per game (the Times mistakenly said McKie played 48 games last year, but he played in 68, starting 3). McKie is a couple of years older and has played three more seasons in the league than Anderson (11 total for McKie). A few things concern me about McKie, and let’s start with what the Lakers need most from their point guard — defense. The good news is that McKie’s defensive numbers are pretty good — the last two seasons his defensive ratings were 104 and 103 (points per 100 possessions used by who he was guarding), both numbers at or below the league average and much better than Chuck Atkins 115 last season. Last year guards shot 50% against him, the season before 47%, the later being a pretty good number. The bad news is that McKie was not asked to cover point guards (Iverson took that duty), 82games has McKie matched almost exclusively against twos and three the last two years. What can he do against smaller, quicker point guards? What should concern everyone about McKie is he combines some age with a drop off in production last season. From the 98-99 season through the 03-04 season, McKie averaged double digits in points scored per 40 minutes played, last season that number dropped to 5.4. He shot 32.3% from three-point range last year, below his career average of 35% and well below two seasons ago when he shot 43.6%. Or just look at his PER starting in the 01-02 season through last year: 15.8, 13.7, 13.9, 8.4. Now all that said, McKie is not an offensive black hole, he still had an eFG% of 50% and had 1.02 points per shot attempt last season, numbers that were down from the previous season but not horrible, especialy coming to a team where he will not be asked to score a lot. Was last year an aberration or is McKie sliding very fast on the down slope of his career (ala Brian Grant)? Does the decline in numbers relate to how he was used last year (I didn't see many Philly games)? Despite all my concerns, the Sixers were 1.6 points better per 48 minutes with McKie on the court rather than off last season. And if the Lakers are getting him for a two-year deal (one plus a team option would be nice) for just part of the MLE, while they find a better long-term solution at the point, then McKie could work out. Anderson could be the more gifted player when healthy, but McKie may be a somewhat safer bet.

Light Reading

2005-08-17T09:49:00.000-07:00

Longer post coming hopefully this afternoon, another trip down memory lane (but not to the good years), but in the short term, may I suggest some reading. The latest Carnival of the NBA is up at True Hoop (a site I try to check daily already). There's a lot of good stories linked in the carnival, even one for you gamblers out there, but my personal favorites are: 1) Knickerblogger taking apart Charlie Rosen for calling Patrick Ewing a loser; 2) The sportsbusiness blog breakdown of the Addidas/Reebok deal. Hoopsanalyst's Bob Chaikin has a good look at the Joe Johnson deal, joining the growingly crowded "what are the Hawks thinking?" train. By the way, I'm not sure Phoenix will miss him too much, but they would have been better with him (but I wouldn't pay that price either). Update: One quick added must read. Dallas owner Mark Cuban, on his blog, talks about the decisions he made that led up to the release of Finley this week. it's an insider's look at how contracts are done and teams are built in the NBA. Also, for those of you who think the Lakers should just "buy a championship" this will be a sobering reality. (As if the attempt to do that with Payton and Malone wasn't proof enough.)

The template for success in the NBA changed from the Portland model of 1999-2000 when I got to the league, to the Detroit, San Antonio, Miami model. The finances and rules of the league evolved. The winning teams were ahead of the curve or evolved as the business of the NBA changed. Today, success seems to come from being a smart organization that can identify and develop young talent and have the financial and or cap flexability to be opportunistic and improve your team in season or during the offseason.

Dan Rosenbaum has a great analysis of this. (As a side note, a computer crash has cost me much of the entry I was working on, so it will be tomorrow before it gets done.)

Fast Break:

2005-08-15T10:22:00.000-07:00

Things are moving slowly, and not just because I’m back on dial-up until the DSL gets hooked up at my new place later this week. Things are slow in Laker land with little action — even Eric Pincus has resorted to playing fantasy basketball with the Lakers. Commenter DC is frustrated and I think there are a lot of Laker fans with him. I agree in one sense — this team, as of right now, is not very good. Even trying to keep cap space open in two years, there are some big holes to fill for next year. Where I give Mitch credit are two areas: 1) he shouldn’t be giving the big, long contracts to the current free agents out there because they just don’t deserve them, right now the market is tight and people are overpaying; 2) he’s taken a couple of two-year flyers (Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum) and if one of them pans out the Lakers will be in better shape in 2007. The question is, when the Lakers finally get under the cap, who can they really go get? As of right now, I’d say the much discussed Amare Stoudemire or Yao Ming are big long shots to leave their current cities. But it’s impossible who will be available in two years, that’s several lifetimes at the speed fortunes turn in the NBA. Some other notes while we wait for other shoes to drop. • That Sam Cassell trade is a smart one by the Clippers. Shawn Livingston shows flashes of brilliance and is the point guard of the future, but last season showed just how frail he still is (talk about a guy who needs to eat steaks and hit the weights every day). At age 36 Cassell is not the Cassell he used to be, but like Robert Horry if you limit his minutes he can still be big when you need him. Plus, Livingston picks up pointers for a couple of years. The Clips, if they can stay healthy, are a serious contender for one of those last couple playoff spots in the West (that may not sound like much, but first this is the Clips so that’s a step up, and second the Lakers are in the same boat right now, in fact the Laker boat has more holes). • Took an afternoon off from unpacking Sunday to head out to Dodger Stadium to take in a game — and it was a great game to choose. Pedro Martinez flirts with a no hitter, the Dodgers win and the game takes just 2:09. Every day at the ballpark should be that much fun. • Shareef Abdur-Rahim going to Sacramento makes them better — he’ll take over the role Chris Webber could no longer fill. However, the Kings are still a team that gets, 50+ wins, makes the playoffs but will not contend for a title — unless Bibby and Peja become better defenders on the perimeter (and they won’t). • Doesn’t moving feel like an adult version of Tetris?

Worthwhile Reading

2005-08-12T00:44:00.000-07:00

While I’m throwing my back out today moving furniture (and without internet access the rest of the weekend) here are some things worth reading: Eric Pincus has a story up at Hoopsworld about where the Lakers stand, the off-season moves made and looking at who’s left on the market — and it isn’t pretty:

As constructed, the Lakers are not a very good team. They have some good components and a lot of upside, but ultimately little on the bench, inconsistent power players and a gaping hole at the point.

If you have a raw big man you are looking to polish — and the Lakers do — is there a better person to bring in than maybe the best center ever to play the game? If you want to get a better understanding of the stats I use on this site — the ones you find at places like 82games.com or the Knickerblogger stats page — then check out this piece I wrote for Father Knickerbocker. Trust me, I’m not that bright — if I can understand this stuff, you can too. Thanks to Larry for giving me the space.

Fast Break:

2005-08-10T10:25:00.000-07:00

Not much news, but: • Brian Grant is out the door. Not a surprise and I don’t have much to add that hasn’t been said before. With this Jerry Buss will save at least $25 million over the next two years in luxury tax money, and if I were in his Italian loafers I’d do the same (the Lakers are expected to pay about $75 million in salary, the luxury tax level is $61 million, so this keeps the Lakers at or below that threshold). However, right now there is no backup center (unless you count Vlade) and the backup four is a combination of Slava and Brian Cook, two guys who are power forwards in name only. While priority one for Mitch is a point guard, if he is trying to get Derek Anderson to take less than the full MLE he needs to use any money saved for depth in the bigs. • I find the situation in Atlanta fascinating — owners fighting it out in court about a trade. My two cents — Joe Johnson is not worth that inflated contract alone, forget the two first-round draft picks thrown in. Johnson is good but his numbers from last season — particularly his per-game numbers — are inflated because of the team he played on and pace he played at. He fits well in Phoenix, but in Atlanta? If I’m the Hawks, I try to go more of the route of Chicago, building smart through the draft and develop a core. Eventually you are going to have to overpay to get a free agent to come there (it’s the only way a player will go to the Clippers of the East) but now is not the time and Johnson is not the guy. • For what it’s worth, Eric Pincus is reporting Shareef Abdur-Rahim to Sacramento is a strong possibility. • There’s no way around it — moving sucks. I feel like boxes are invading my subconscious and appearing in my dreams.

Fast Break

2005-08-08T10:32:00.000-07:00

Not a lot of new news to talk about. Add in the fact that I’m moving this week and my world seems to be in boxes so don’t be surprised if I can’t get new stuff up every day this week. At least I’m not going to go Keith Hernandez on any of you and ask you to help me to move. Some quick thoughts: • The Lakers’ schedule for next season is out. They open the season on the road Wednesday, Nov. 2, in Denver. The home opener is the next night at home against Phoenix — just the way you want to open the season, a back-to-back with the second game against a team trying to run you into the ground. Here’s the good news — 10 of the last 13 are at home, with some of those games very winnable (two against New Orleans, for example). If the Lakers are in a tight race for a playoff spot, it’ll be good to have those games at home. • There has been some talk in the comments about Odom playing some four next season, which is likely, the question is how much. We know Odom can score from either position, but what about his defense? Let’s look at the stats (via 82games.com) for him at each position the past three seasons, with his three different teams. While playing the three, Odom had one good defensive season in Miami sandwiched between poor ones in Los Angeles. Last season, Odom played just 6% of the team’s minutes at the three and allowed opponents to shoot a high 54.1%. Those opponents averaged 5.1 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 22.3 points per 48 minutes. His opponents PER was 17.5 (very close to what he did at the four last season, by the way). In Miami, Odom played 23% of the team’s minutes at the three and held opponents to 39.6% shooting, giving up 7.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 15.7 points (and an opponents PER of just 11.3). With the Clippers in 02-03, he played 35% of the team’s minutes at the three and allows opponents to shoot 52.5%, with 8.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 22.1 points per 48. Now let’s talk about the four, where Odom had a decent year with the Clippers but struggled the last two years. Last season, Odom played 50% of the Lakers' minutes at the four, opponents shot 48.6% but pulled down 11.6 rebounds, had 3.5 assists and 19.1 points per 48. His opponents PER was 17.6. While in Miami the numbers were similar — opponents shot 49.1%, grabbed 11.3 rebounds, had 3.2 assists and scored 20.1 points per game. The one good year with the Clippers he played just 6% of the team’s minutes at the position. That season opponent fours shot jut 39.4%, had 8.3 rebounds, 3 assists and 18.1 points per 48. Some general observations. First, for the most part, Odom’s defense has been below average regardless of position. Second, at the four he seems to give up a lot of rebounds but keeps the shooting percentage against in the high 40s, as opposed to better shooting by threes against him. (It should be added that for the most part, teams in the league have pretty high opponent PER at the four because of the depth of the position league wide, in that context Odom’s numbers were pretty average last season.) At the three, I’m not sure exactly what to make of the good year in Miami but the two off seasons in the West — was it a matter of matchups? The East (at that time) being weaker than the West? Or can he play good defense at the three but the only times he got the chance last season were in bad matchups? I will say this, wherever he plays, if the Lakers are going to make the playoffs Odom is going to have to play good defense. That will be a key. • By the way, the idea of Odom playing some center was thrown out as well. He has played a few minutes each year (1% of team totals, basically) at center and has been crushed each time (for example, his opponent PER last season at center was 23.8 — basically the equivalent a center having a Yao Ming like game against you every night). He’s not strong enough to play in the middle. • Hoopsanalyst talks about the Lakers picking up Kwame in the latest transactions wrap (by the way, he has a smart take on the Clippers signing Cuttino Mobley, too):

I frankly wonder how well he'll do with Kobe and Phil Jackson, neither of whom have much use for pouters (albeit for different reasons). On the bright side, Kwame's trend line was going straight up before 2004-05 smacked him down. Watching Brown, I don't see him as a great athlete (his block and steal numbers are not very impressive) and I believe that his upside is more of a bruising forward a la Otis Thorpe.

Fast Break:

2005-08-05T11:26:00.000-07:00

Roster talk, and not just the Laker roster: • Smush Parker and Von Wafer have been signed to non-guaranteed contracts. They will get their chance at training camp, which is all they really could ask for. Before you ask, Smush signed a two-year deal but it is not guaranteed until he makes the team and sticks on the roster past January 15 (I’m not positive about the date, but it’s the middle of January). • So, assuming the Lakers sign Derek Anderson, what does the 15-man roster look like right now: PG Anderson/Sasha/Parker SG Kobe/Walton/ Proffit SF Odom/J.Jones/George PF Brown/Slava/Cook C Mihm/??/Bynum NDBL Von Wafer A few notes here, starting with this is obviously early and trades or signings could change things. Also, I balanced this out (three per position) more than it will be in practice, I think. For example, Sasha may play back up two, Walton more three than two, but in the triangle the positions are a little more flexible than a traditional offense. The rotation will shake out during camp. The question mark at back up center can be filled one of three ways: 1) Vlade stays with the team for one year; 2) The Lakers keep Brian Grant; 3) They sign someone for the LLE. A fourth option would be a trade. Decent bigs are hard to get, even backup ones. While there are 15 on the roster, only 12 sit on the bench and the new CBA goes away from the fake “injured reserve” and into a system more like the NHL — three guys will not dress each game. If I had to guess, and everyone was healthy, I’d bet Parker, Proffit and maybe Cook or Bynum don’t suit up. The reason I have Proffit on the roster and Wafer in the NDBL is only because Proffit’s contract is guaranteed this year, Wafer’s is not. Wafer can be sent down, Proffit has been in the league too long. • I’m excited about Jeremy Roenick joining the LA Kings. However, I wish the real Roenick had the skills of the NHLPA Hockey 93 video game Roenick. • From the APBR message boards: Chris Mihm was tied for 19th in the league committing goaltending 7 times last year. The top three: Pryzbilla 38, Dalembert 34 and Garnett 20. For comparison, Duncan had zero. • If I could have any job in the world, I would want Phil Keoghan’s.

Derek Anderson, a Closer Look

2005-08-04T11:35:00.000-07:00

Eric Pincus has been mentioning Derek Anderson as a Laker target for point guard since long before it became fashionable. And now it’s fashionable. The Los Angeles Times and just about everyone else has the Lakers ready to offer the $5 million mid level exception to him, and he’s likely to take it. So, what would the Lakers get for their $5 million? Frankly, it depends on how healthy Anderson is. Do the Lakers get the 2003 version of Anderson, who played in 76 games that year, had a PER of 16.9 and shot 49.6% (eFG%). Or, do they get the 2005 Anderson who played in 47 games, had a PER of 11.7 and shot 46.3%. Let’s take a little closer look at the two versions of Anderson. When he’s healthy, Anderson is the kind of guard who would fit the triangle well. Back in 2003, Anderson was a +4.7 per 48 minutes (the Blazers scored that many more points with him on the floor versus off), a good number. He can shoot — overall he shot 49.7% that year, 35% from three point range and scored 1.11 points per shot attempt (all good numbers), 81% of his shots were jump shots and he shot 45.9% on those (of course, that’s eFG%). He drew fouls on 8.5% of his shots, not a high number but not bad for someone who hangs on the perimeter — and when he got to the free throw line he hit 85.9% of the time. His offensive rating was a solid 115 (points per 100 possessions, the league average was 104). He split time between the one and the two that year (which is fine the way the triangle works). Defensively (because, let’s face it, that’s the Lakers biggest need) he was basically average — he gave up 105 points per 100 possessions (for comparison, last year Chuck Atkins gave up 115). Focusing on when he had to cover point guards, he held them to 45.2% shooting and forced about 4.2 turnovers per 48 minutes (something the Lakers need). While he’s no stopper, the 2003 version of Anderson would be a big improvement for the Lakers. But what if they get the 2005 version? The version with the bad back that keeps him out of games. That Anderson was basically a neutral force for the Blazers in 04-05 (-0.4 for the season). He could still shoot the three (38.4%) but overall his shooting slumped — 83% of his shots were jump shots and he hit 43.3% of them. He got 1.01 points per shot attempt and had an offensive rating of 103 (per 100 possessions, the league average last year was 106). By the way, he spent little time at the point in Portland last year (which is understandable with Stoudemire and Telfair on the roster), mostly playing the two. Defensively he fell off to a rating of 111 (per 100) and he created 2.6 turnovers per 48. When your back is sore it’s hard to guard anyone. Anderson would be a good fit for the Lakers — if he’s healthy. (Another “if” for the Lakers next season.) The person who should make the final decision on this contract is the doctor the Lakers hire to do Anderson’s physical. Are the back spasms and problems a thing of the past? Will the Lakers get the Anderson of the past? If so, he’ll be a great fit at the point.

Fast Break:

2005-08-02T10:16:00.000-07:00

If any big Laker news comes down I’ll get to it as quickly as I can (busy work week), but here is some interesting reading to keep your mind occupied: • The Los Angeles Times suggests that Derek Fisher could be waived under the new amnesty rules and would draw the interest of the Lakers if that happens. I like this idea better than the White Chocolate idea presented yesterday. I don’t have time to get into all the numbers today — and I don’t want to start getting into the numbers for all the potential Laker signings out there, nobody has that kind of time — but Fisher is a pretty average defender, although he has had a more difficult time with point guards than when asked to cover two guards. However, his offensive skills fit well with the triangle: He can hit the three, doesn’t use up a lot of shots and plays his role. Plus, I just have always liked the guy, and being a fan favorite should count for something. • Hoopsanalyst has a piece up talking about the greatest trades in Laker history (and the rest of the Pacific division). What do you think was better — the trade that cleared the way for the Magic Johnson pick or the highway robbery that allowed the Lakers to draft James Worthy and add him to Kareem and Magic? This is good work and well worth the read. • For college basketball fans, really interesting trial starting this week between the NCAA and the NIT that could, down the line, force huge changes on March Madness. The bottom line is this — if UCLA wins the Pac-10 or Cal State Northridge wins the Big West (an alum can dream, can’t he?) then they MUST go to the NCAA tournament. If you get an invite, NCAA rules for all sports require you to participate in the NCAA tourney. But what if a team wants to go somewhere else? Mark McGuire pulled his Marquette team out of the NCAA Tourney in the 1970s because he was pissed at the seeding. Should teams still be able to do that? Now all that’s a bit of a simplification, but that’s the core of what the argument is, the NCAA says you should have to go to their party and the NIT says you should be able to do what you want. If the NIT wins, it may force the NCAA to make changes or allow for promoters and teams to organize their own events (like college football). It’s worth following.

Point Guards and Other Thoughts

2005-08-01T10:56:00.000-07:00

Tuesday the ban is lifted and NBA trades and free agent signings can become official — including the Kwame deal (Kwame and Laron Profit for Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins). The salary cap will go up to $49.5 million, the luxury tax threshold will be just over $61 million (and will become lower next year according to Dan Rosenbaum) and the mid level exception will be $5 million. What’s troublesome is the day has come and the Lakers still do not have a point guard in the fold. There are countless rumors out there, all discussed in Eric Pincus’ latest piece at Hoopsworld. The big one: Jason Williams coming to the Lakers. This one might surprise you — I don’t hate the idea of “white chocolate” in a Laker uniform. I can see why Pat Riley and others also may want him. Yes, he is seriously overpaid (nearly $8 million next season) and his contract runs for three years (the Lakers wouldn’t offer Antonio Daniels three years but would take on Williams for three?). He’s not a long-term answer but not a horrible short-term fix if — and here’s the big part — if you can get him to play a smaller role in his team's offense. For the record, his +/- per 48 minutes last year was -0.9, or almost neutral. He’s a decent shooter — his eFG% was 49.6% last year (the same as Lamar Odom’s) and he shot 32.4% from three-point range (not far off his career average). He averaged 14.7 points, 8.2 assists and 2.7 turnovers per 40 minutes played last season. His defense is slightly worse than average — opponents shot 47.7% against him, scored 107 points per 100 shot attempts (the league average was 106), and the opponents PER was 16.2. (For comparison, last season Chucky Atkins allowed opponents to shoot 49.6%, gave up 115 per 100 attempts and gave up a PER of 19.1). Last season, Williams took 20% of his team’s shots when he was on the floor (which is the average, five players each taking 20%). The Lakers are not going to want him to shoot that much (maybe 16-17%), and with most players when the amount they shoot goes down, their efficiency goes up (they take better shots). If — I think there may be a lot of “ifs” for the Lakers next season — Williams would not chafe against the point guard role in the triangle (read: Gary Payton) then he could be a decent solution in the short term. He’s not the defensive stopper the Lakers need at the point, but he’s better than the person currently in that position. (And while four inches shorter, about equal on offense and maybe a better defender than Derek Anderson, if Portland cuts him, although Anderson would be cheaper.) Whoever starts at the one, Pincus said it appears Tyrone Lue will be the back up point. I’ve discussed him before, don’t love him but as a cheep back up then I’d live with him. But if you bring in a new starting point and a back-up in Lue, then what about Sasha? After watching how he was used in the Summer Pro League, I still think he will get a chance to be Kobe’s backup. If he fails in that role then maybe Luke Walton gets his minutes, but I think that Sasha is becoming a two in the Lakers’ eyes. Some other notes and thoughts: • Pincus also said it appears the Lakers will waive Brian Grant as part of the Amnesty/Allan Houston rule. My only concern is this — if Grant is gone and Vlade retires, who backs up Kwame and Chris Mihm in the frontcourt? (I assume the Lakers move Odom to the three and both Kwame and Mihm start, maybe Phil has something else in mind.) • One more note, directed to Eric Pincus — good luck to you and your wife. In a couple of months you’ll have mostly forgotten about how hard the process of giving birth can be and just be happy you have a healthy, happy child. (And if you don’t have TiVo, get it — I taped a lot of Laker games and other stuff to watch when I was up at 3 a.m. with my crying daughter.) • The Laker pre-season schedule is out. Now, all I have to do is find a way to get to Hawaii in October. • Is Larry Brown still the Knicks coach or has he moved on to a new job yet? • If you are not reading Dan Rosenbaum’s new NBA blog you are missing some of the best NBA writing anywhere.

Looking Back at Kurt Rambis

2005-07-29T23:46:00.000-07:00

One of the things I wanted to do during the slow off-season was reflect on some of the Lakers from the past, to take a stroll down memory lane with both statistics and a my rose-colored rear-view mirror. Of course, this off-season has been anything but slow so far, so I haven’t gotten around to it. But Kurt Rambis has been on my mind lately. He was the coach of the Lakers Summer Pro League team. More prominently, when watching Ronny Turiaf play in that league I thought he could be the Kurt Rambis for a new generation (and hopefully still can be). Then there was a discussion in the comments this week that had me pulling up Rambis’ career numbers and taking a look — and that alone brought back good memories. If Rambis came out of Santa Clara University today he would be undrafted — he was a third-round pick of the Knicks back in 1980. (Rambis is probably the second best player to come out of the school, behind Steve Nash, but I bet Nash never looked this good in college.) Before the start of the 1980-81 season Rambis was cut by the Knicks (who decided to keep second round pick Dewayne Scales of LSU at the four). The next year the Lakers picked up Rambis and gave him a chance — that first year he averaged just 17.4 minutes per game but was already showing the hustle that made him a crowd favorite. His offense was nothing to speak of but he was grabbing an impressive 16.8% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor and his defense was very good —opponents were scoring seven points less per 100 possessions than the league average, a better defensive rating than any other Laker that season. And he had those glasses. And that 1981-82 Laker team went on the win the title. By the 1983-84 season, Rambis was an entrenched part of the Laker dynasty years. From that season through the 88-89 season, Rambis would be in the top 10 in the league in rebound percentage grabbed (that last season with Charlotte). While his defense, rebounding and effort are what we all think of first (rightfully), what he did offensively can be underrated — he didn’t take many shots but he became an efficient scorer. During his time with the Lakers he never took more than 14.5% of the team’s shots when he was on the floor (for comparison, Magic, Kareem and Worthy would be in the 23-28% range), but he shot between 52% and 59.5%, and from 1983-88 he averaged a quality 1.20 points per shot attempt. It helps that the shots I remember him taking were either offensive rebound putbacks or lay-ups created by a no-look pass from Magic, but Rambis was able to find his offensive niche on a team that didn’t need him to score. But let’s not waste time talking offense — the Rambis we most remember came in the playoffs, mixing it up with the Celtics. Forget Celtics — mixing it up with Kevin McHale. Specifically, McHale clotheslining Rambis during game two of the 1984 NBA finals. If a tackle could turn the tide in an NBA final, that would be the instance. Personally, I respect McHale and what he did on the court and in the front office, but I’ve never really forgiven him for that one. I still remember how angry I was at the time and how I wanted to jump through the television screen and take a run at him (of course, as a skinny high schooler, that would not have gone well for me). I don’t hold a grudge against McHale today the way I do, say, the ever-biased Tommy Heinsohn, but there’s still a part of that day’s anger floating around in me. Sometimes we Laker fans forget Rambis’ lost years — in Charlotte and Phoenix— before coming back to the Lakers for his two last NBA seasons (including the season that had been the last time the Lakers didn’t make the playoffs). When he retired his career numbers were those of a quality NBA player — 53.4 field goal percentage, 16.8% of available rebounds grabbed (14.6 per 48 minutes), 1.15 points per shot attempt and a defensive rating that was better than the league average — but they fall far short of the impression he left on Laker fans. He became a cult figure and as popular as any of the team's superstars. He’s been with the organization ever since retiring, including an underrated stint as head coach. He’s a company man, in the best sense of the phrase. He’ll be back on the bench next season, sitting near Phil Jackson and spending his practices teaching Andrew Bynum the fine points of boxing out. And every time I see him, I’ll think of the man in glasses and smile just a little.

Fast Break

2005-07-27T10:56:00.000-07:00

Just a few general thoughts and notes in the inbox: • The latest Carnival of the NBA is up at The City and shows you just how many new NBA blogs are out there — and how much action there is in the off-season. •Gonzaga University has set up an email account where you can send get well wishes to Ronny Turaif. It is ronny@gonzaga.edu. The reports are that his heart surgery went as well as could be hoped. • Apparently, his high school coach isn’t sure Andrew Bynum is ready for the NBA right now. I’m not sure anybody really does (nor should we fans expect it). The real questions that need to be asked are these: Will he ever really be ready for the NBA? What would be better for his development toward the NBA — two years of college or two years of limited playing time but plenty of practice time and more focused coaching on the NBA level? We’ll know the answer to the first one in three to five years, the second one we may never know. (By the way, that is some good reporting by Bresnahan in the Times today, providing some background and fleshing out the overall picture of Bynum. I wish, however, that he and others would stop with the Shaq comparisons — Bynum is not that style of player and will not be asked to play a Shaq-like role in the offense.) • Great read about Kobe's return to Nike advertising — you can always count on Eric Neel to be smart and well written. • Computer programmer or serial killer? Think you can tell them apart? (Thanks to Rob at 6-4-2 for posting that link first.) • I liked HBO’s Entourage last season, but this season it has really hit its stride. It’s now must watch at our house. No show gets better cameos (Ralph Machio and Pauly Shore had the best ones so far this season). • Great off-season topic over at Hoops Analyst — the best trades in NBA history. They are breaking it down by division, so far having covered the Atlantic, Central and Midwest. • That is one athletic team the Washington Wizards will have on the court next season — Antonio Daniels at the point, Gilbert Arenas at the two, Caron Butler at the three and Antawn Jamison at the four. We’ll see what kind of defense that group will play (Daniels is good, however everyone else mentioned is below average), but on offense they should be a real entertaining group. • If the Lakers waive Brian Grant as part of the one-time luxury tax cuts, expect him to end up in Miami (thanks to Ben Maller for posting that story). • For the record, I didn’t read Basketball on Paper while on vacation. The new Sarah Vowell book, Assassination Vacation, is an entertaining and clever read that also shows why history should be fun and not feared. (Plus, you have to love a writer that in her last book said she loves Pop-a-Shot.)

Summer League Stats

2005-07-26T10:35:00.000-07:00

I compiled some statistics from the Lakers Summer Pro League games for players Laker fans may actually see in a Laker uniform in the future and I’m presenting them with almost no comment. However, I will start with two cautions about reading too much into these. First, this is the Summer League, so the level of competition is not near the NBA regular season and the whole process is more about development, not winning. Second, the Lakers played just eight SPL games, that’s a very small sample size. (I tried to put this in an Excel-like table, but as I have the HTML skills of a 10-year-old, I couldn’t get it to look right. So, here it is in paragraphs.) Sasha Vujacic had an eFG% of 47.1% (35.5% during the regular season) and shot 33.3% from three-point range (27%), which led to 9.4 points per game (2.9) and 17 points per 40 minutes (10). Sasha averaged 2.5 assists per 40 minutes (5.1) and 4.3 turnovers in that same time (1.5). He scored 1.02 points per shot attempt (0.81). William “Smush” Parker had an eFG% of 55.6% and shot 28.6% from three-point range, which led to 12.1 points per game and 17.9 points per 40 minutes. Smush averaged 5 assists per 40 minutes and 2.8 turnovers in that same time. He scored 1.33 points per shot attempt. Von Waver had an eFG% of 60% and shot 48.1% from three-point range, which led to 12.8 points per game and 23.2 points per 40 minutes. Wafer averaged 3 assists per 40 minutes and 3.9 turnovers in that same time. He scored 1.27 points per shot attempt. Andrew Bynum shot 45.6% from the field, leading to 10.4 points per game, 14.2 points per 40 minutes and 0.97 points per shot attempt. He grabbed 13.1% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor and averaged 3.8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes (36.7% of his total rebounds were on the offensive end). He also averaged 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes, 1.7 assists and 3.6 turnovers. Marcus Douthit shot 49% from the field, leading to 8.3 points per game, 13.5 points per 40 minutes and 1.08 points per shot attempt. He grabbed 10.77% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor and averaged 1 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. He also averaged 1 block per 40 minutes, 2.1 assists and 4.7 turnovers. Ronny Turiaf (in the four games he played) shot 47.1% from the field, leading to 14 points per game, 21.3 points per 40 minutes and 1.14 points per shot attempt. He grabbed 8.69% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor and averaged 2.6 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes. He also averaged 0.4 blocks per 40 minutes, 3.4 assists and 1.9 turnovers.

And The Point Is…

2005-07-25T00:25:00.000-07:00

After a week of breathing crisp, pine-scented air, relaxing with my family and looking at stunning vistas, I couldn’t wait to get back in front of a computer. I didn’t think you’d buy that. But upon returning there were a couple of unsettling pieces of Laker news and one other thing I wanted to catch up on. The first is the sad irony that Ronny Turiaf’s heart is too big. I hope he gets himself healthy — I get the feeling that whether or not he ever sets foot on an NBA court he is going to be a success. The passion he showed just in Summer Pro League not only won over the fans (including me and my wife) but also will serve him well in any endeavor. I sincerely hope that endeavor is as the Lakers future power forward, but that is out of everyone’s hands but the doctor’s. The loss of Turiaf — who would have played limited minutes at the four — is not as damaging as the run on point guards in free agency. Antonio Daniels wisely did what was best for Antonio Daniels, taking the five-year contract in Washington over the reported two offered by LA. That short-term offer implies the Laker front office strategy is to have Kobe, Odom and Bynum (if he blossoms) as the core and the only bigger contracts on the books after the end of the 2006-07 season (Bynum will still be in his rookie deal but can be resigned for the max when it ends), then use free agency to plug in whatever pieces will need to go around them. That will hurt the Lakers in the short term, but building for three years from now appears to be the goal. With Daniels signed other points have started to pick their new homes. The problem remains that last season the Lakers were weakest (using PER) at the point guard — the position provided the least on offense and gave up the most on defense. And who is left on the board this year for the Lakers to pick from does not thrill me. The rumor is the Lakers are looking at are Tyron Lue. While Laker fans may remember Lue fondly from the 2000 title run, the fact of the matter is that is the only season in his career where his defensive numbers were better than the league average (for his career, he has give up 111 points per 100 possessions to the players he covered, when the league average has been 104; last season his he gave up 113 pts. per 100, not significantly different than Chucky Atkins 115; last season his opponents PER was 17.6, with the league average at 15). Lue is not a great defensive answer for the Lakers. The better answer may be Marco Jaric, but the Clippers want a sign and trade and I’m not sure who the Lakers have the Clippers want. (Well, Kobe, but that ship has sailed.) Maybe somebody else will come available via trade or the one-time luxury tax cuts. I hope so. One final note: Friend of this site Kevin Pelton has put up a good piece at 82games.com talking about the growth of new statistical analysis in basketball. I’m not just suggesting it because he mentioned Forum Blue and Gold (although, let's face it, it helps, but I'm not sure it belongs in the company mentioned) but because if you find the kind of things going on here interesting, you’ll find that you are not alone.

Summer League Notes, And More

2005-07-15T11:29:00.000-07:00

For the next week, posting will be very light from me as I go on vacation with my family. Where we’re headed is not completely unplugged from the world (although I will be somewhat), so if there is a big Laker story I’ll try to get a post up. In the short term, here are notes and thoughts from the Lakers SPL game against the Miami Heat Wednesday night, plus some other stuff. If anything big happens put a comment in, that will be the first place I’ll look. • Wednesday night against the Heat, Andrew Bynum had his best game by far. He seemed more comfortable in the offense and was “thinking” less about what to do, and that led to a much more aggressive Bynum on the court. He pushed back hard trying to get post position (he still needs strength, but he’s using leverage better). He fought harder on the boards, he had 10 total but five on the offensive glass. He had two blocked shots — one of a Qyntel Woods who was trying to dunk (one of the best plays of the SPL so far) and another all the way out near the three-point line on a rotation. He was more aggressive looking for his shot and was 6 of 10 from the field. It’s still too early to say what we’ve got in Bynum, but his growth through the first four games gives me hope that he does have a high basketball IQ, is a good study and a hard worker. After the improvement I’ve seen, I’ve become more optimistic about his future. • Now to the Lakers’ past at center — Vlade is retiring due to his back problems. Henry over at True Hoop has a good piece up about him, talking about what a good person Vlade was. I, for one, will miss him. Update: Laker management is saying that no decision has been made. Believe what you want. • Here’s my concern about Ronny Turaif — his hands. He seems to fumble half the entry passes he gets in the post, good ones or not. The quicker guys he’s facing come this fall will exploit that more. He and Mihm in the game together would be an all bad-hands team inside. It’s something correctible, but certainly an area he needs to work. • A lot of people who have been to the SPL are higher on Smush Parker than I am. Don’t get me wrong, I like him, but he’s only 2 of 9 so far from three-point range (although his overall eFG% is a very healthy 56.3%). Other parts of his game are good — he’s made good passes and mainly good decisions, and his defense has been solid. But, folks, this is the summer league, so we’re judging him against flawed competition. Give him an invite to camp and see if he can earn a spot as a backup point, if not send him to the NDBL as insurance. He’s been a nice find, but this is a league of end-of-the-bench guys and wanna be end of the bench guys — let’s not go overboard and say Parker should be a starter or even have a guaranteed NBA contract. • By the way, Sasha Vujacic is 5 of 11 from three point range so far in the SPL, with an eFG% of 51.6%. • After watching him in person, a lot of teams are going to regret not taking Wayne Simien earlier in the draft — the Heat got a steal. He is very polished on offense and a solid defender who can step in and play now. Those concerns about whether he was 6-7 or 6-9 were very overrated. • Devin Green has been an interesting case on the Laker SPL team. He’s a very smart player, always seemingly in the open space, making a good cut to the hoop or in the right place for the rebound. At the end of the night his numbers are good, but he does it quietly. He doesn’t stand out athletically, which makes me think that at the NBA level (where good players are both smart and athletic) he will struggle, but he’s going to be a good fit for a minor league or European team. He may get a Laker camp invite, and I have to say I’m impressed. He strikes me as the guy who some day might make the best coach of any of his teammates. • With Chucky gone, the Lakers really need to land Antonio Daniels, or what else is there at the point? He visited the Lakers practice facility and with team officials on Tuesday, however on Thursday his agent said Daniels is fond of Portland coach Nate McMillan (I can’t see Portland happening, by the way, they don’t need a starting point guard). If the Lakers get just one free agent deal this summer, let this be the one. Please. • It took me a while to find the good beer at the Summer Pro League. You can’t go up to the food stand, you need to go to the “beer tent” area, where you can get bottled beer like Corona or Heineken, as opposed to the draft domestic swill in the rest of the place. • By all reports, Kwame Brown didn’t like playing with the ultra-competitive, yelling at teammates Michael Jordan. Kobe is the same way. Has Kwame matured, or his skin thickened? • Another Kwame note from one of the DC-based guys I talked to: One prevailing theory is he plays harder when he gets more offensive touches. If that’s so he may not like it in LA any more than Washington because Kobe and Lamar are still options 1 and 2. I’ll be curious to see what Kwame’s number of shots/percentage of team’s shots are. (By the way, the other theory is he gets more touches when he plays harder.) • In a surprise to no one, Stu Lantz will be back as a color commentator, but now along side Joel Meyers.

Kwame Comes To Town

2005-07-14T10:22:00.000-07:00

During the Civil War, Confederate general Robert E. Lee consistently defied military convention and took big risks, many of which paid off. Historian Shelby Foote said that Lee was not, by nature, a big risk taker, but circumstance forced him to be — his army was smaller and not as well equipped, if he’d done the expected he would have been crushed (well, at least a lot more quickly). I don’t think that, by nature, Mitch Kupchak is a risk taker. But after a 34-win season, I don’t think he or the rest of the Laker brass thinks they have a choice. Hence the pick of Andrew Bynum and now the trade of Caron Butler for Kwame Brown. Last night at the Summer League Laker game, I had the chance to meet and talk with Hoopsworld's Eric Pincus (a great guy, by the way). I don’t want to steal any of his proprietary information, but look at the trade this way: Would you be willing to trade Caron for Kwame if the alternative was Lamar Odom starting at the four again? Mitch was, and those were his choices. As I said before, Kwame has a long way to go and the question is can Phil Jackson get him there. There are doubts about his work ethic, but will a change of scenery and a new coach change that? Last season Brown shot 64% inside but just 32.8% from outside jumpers, but according to those that have watched him, many of those were fade aways that started on the block (this is not from Pincus, but from a couple of people who know the Wizards well). He has a nice jump hook, but because his first step is great but his jumper iffy, defenders play off him. If the jumper becomes consistent is scoring threat goes up. His rebounding has never been good for a power forward (a career 13.8% rebound rate [percent of available rebounds grabbed]), can Phil get him to focus on that? The scouting report on him is that when he wants to be, he is a good rebounder. That scouting report I got also said he is a good man defender but not a great help defender. For his career, he averages just 1.4 blocks per 48 minutes (for comparison, Chris Mihm is 2.5), can Phil get him to improve this part of his game? One thing you’re going to keep hearing is, “he can be like Jermaine O’Neal.” Let me say, statistically, I’m not sold on that. In the four lost years in Portland, O’Neal never played more than 13.7 minutes per game on average, Kwame played more than that his rookie year and averaged more than 30 a game two seasons ago. What’s more, O'Neal's rebound rate was close to his career average of 16% and his FG% was close to or better than his career average of 46.4% in those Portland years (the same is true of points per shot attempt and other factors). What changed in Indiana is that he got the chance to play 30 minutes a game in a system that fit him and so he took a much larger percentage of his team’s shots (his last year in Portland he took 15.3% of the chances when he was on the floor, that jumped to 19% his first year in Indiana and was at a career high 32.3% last year). The bottom line is the skills were there for O’Neal, he just needed the right setting and the chance to display them. Kwame has yet to show those skills are buried in him, but he’s going to get his chance now. It’s a big risk, but the one the Lakers felt they had to take. The scouting report I got said the issues were effort and focus, often problems of young players. If Phil can get all that potential out of him, the trade (and the money going to Phil) will be well worth it. As a side note, I don't really care who the throw in is on the Lakers end. Personally I'd rather get rid of Chucky Atkins so I hope that's who the Wizards take, but it really doesn't matter much. (Because of this trade news, I’m delaying a post on last night’s Summer League action until Friday morning. Check back — the good news is Andrew Bynum had his best game by far and gave reason for optimism.)

Bad Idea Jeans

2005-07-12T17:42:00.000-07:00

Anyone else remember what may have been my favorite Saturday Night Live skit in the 1990s, the Bad Idea Jeans commercial? It was a knock off of a Dockers commercial, with just quick shots of guys pants while you overhear their conversation, but for Bad Idea jeans they said things like, "Normally I wear protection, but then I thought, "When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?" That brings us to the ongoing NBA rumor mill, where ESPN's Chad Ford and numerous other national media have the Lakers trading Caron Butler and another part (Slava?) to Washington for a sign-and-trade with Kwame Brown. Count me in the group saying that if this goes down, it will be as if Mitch was wearing Bad Idea Jeans. Kwame is all potential but has shown none of that so far. Last season the Wizards were 8.2 points better per 48 minutes with him OFF the court, mostly because he was weak offensively. The problem is the 6-11 power forward took 58% of his shots outside of 15 feet and shot just 32.8% on those. When he was closer to the basket, he shot 64%, and he drew fouls on 18% of his shots, making you wonder why he strayed so far from the lane so often. Defensively he is average against power forwards, his opponents PER was 14.4 and opponents shot 45.4% against him, all of which would be a step up for the Lakers. His rebounding, however, is unimpressive, a rebound rate of 12.8% (of available rebounds while he was on the floor) and 13.8% for his career, not great numbers for a power forward. I'm not opposed to giving Kwame a shot with the Lakers, it's just that Caron Butler would be too high a price. Butler had a PER of 16.10 (compared to 10.6 for Brown), and averaged 17.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per 40 minutes played. Those are solid numbers, proven numbers at the NBA level that likely will only get better considering Caron's age. While Brown is all potential, Butler is a proven commodity. Butler may be the Lakers most tradable asset, but because of that and his perceived trade value (which may be higher than his actual worth), the Lakers need to get more than just potential for him. They need to get something proven. Brown is not that. The Lakers front office is denying this trade is in the works, let's hope that is the case, because it's a bad idea.

SPL Game 3 and Other Notes

2005-07-11T15:07:00.000-07:00

Update: Up at Hoopsworld is another view of the Lakers at the Summer Pro League, plus the latest trade and free agent rumors, all courtesy Eric Pincus. Also, if you wanted to know why some teams were high on high schooler Gerald Green, check out this video from the Vegas Summer League (the link comes via Celtics Blog). ------------- I caught the first half of the Lakers game three in Long Beach Monday afternoon, and am here to pass along notes from that and a couple other things in my notebook. • The crowd was a little smaller today but still pretty big — Long Beach State’s team couldn’t draw that big a crowd if they were playing UCLA. In the house were Phil Jackson, Mitch Kupchak, Jerry Buss and even Jack Haley. • When the season starts, teams are going to lay off Ronny Turaif and dare him to hit any shot more than 10 feet away from the basket. He was even badly missing 15-18 foot jumpers in warm-ups. Until he can develop some kind of outside shot his effectiveness will be limited. He can rebound and his defense looks solid, but he can’t be an offensive black hole. • The triangle continues to look ugly. • When I’ve talked about Bynum being raw, I thought I should provide a little detail. I’m not a scout, so use whatever amount of salt you see as necessary with these. He really doesn’t have great positioning skills or box out skills — likely because he never had to develop them being guarded in high school by guys 6-5. He seems like he used to be just so much stronger that he could get where he wanted to go on the court no problem, now he’s got to get a body on somebody rather than just expect his length to do the job and he's not quite sure how to do it. His footwork is bad; he took one hook shot Wednesday off the wrong foot. When he gets the ball in traffic, he gets flustered (he’s clearly not used to the speed of the game). On defense he made errors, for example: covering a pick-and-pop Wednesday he did something we almost never saw out of Shaq when he stepped out on the guard, but then he stayed with him almost out the sideline, where the guard passed it to the “popper” and Bynum, realizing he wasn’t supposed to switch, was futilely chasing after his guy who scored easily. All can be taught, but means don’t expect much from him for at least a year — he’s going to play Darko minutes this season. It may be three before he can really contribute. • This weekend we (my wife and I) TiVo’d and watched the Live 8 concerts. London kicked our ass. Badly. USA Basketball vs. Mongolia badly. Their first three acts in London — U2, Coldplay, the aging but still entertaining Elton John. In Philadelphia the first act was Bon Jovi, followed by the mild rap stylings of Robert Horry, er, Will Smith. Even if it did close with Paul McCartney playing his best work of nearly 40 years ago, I’d rather have been in Hyde Park. • Sasha’s defense does not look a lot better. He was slow on a couple rotations and got beat twice on ball fakes in the first half Wednesday. I’m curious how much Phil will use him, my guess is not much if he can’t play defense. By the way, after pumping up his catch-and-shoot skills from the weekend, Sasha went back to being a streaky outside shooter Wednesday. • The emergence of Ronny Turiaf had Marcus Douthit playing harder and with more desperation on Wednesday (at least that's my guess of the motivation), and at half he led the team in scoring (I think he had 10, maybe 12, stats weren’t available when I left). I don’t think it will be nearly enough. • If I were Mitch K., I’d give Will Conroy and Smush Parker invites to training camp — I’m not sure they’d make the team but they’d at least be solid in practice. Smush is quick and can score, Conroy just runs a team well and can play defense. They’ve been solid in the SPL. • Dean Oliver figures that a players scoring hits its peak at age 27. Kobe will be 27 this season.

Summer League Games 1 & 2

2005-07-10T01:16:00.000-07:00

Two games. Two sellouts. I’ve plenty of notes on players but that above stat is the thing that most jumped out at me after two days — the combination of Phil and Andrew Bynum has created a buzz around this team that was missing the second half of last season. There’s not going to be a Laker championship in the next couple of years, but there’s unbelievable interest in Dr. Buss’ team again and that itself is a good sign. I’ve been to plenty of Summer League games and it was never a problem to get tickets before. People have had to be turned away at the gates the last two days. The Laker brain trust has been to the Pyramid already to watch their players — Phil, Mitch, Dr. Buss, Jim Buss, Tex Winter, Rambis (coaching), Shaw (assistant coach). (By the way, funniest thing of the two days was Saturday, when the Summer Pro League inducted James Worthy into their mythical Hall of Fame. Mitch K. was out at mid court to give him the plaque and when Mitch was introduced there was an even mix of boos and cheers, but Mitch was a pro and had no reaction. On the other hand, Dr. Buss was cracking up.) I’ve tried to bullet point this by players, but there are some general thoughts that need to be brought up as well. • First, it needs to be noted that this team is struggling in the triangle. The flow is lacking and it is breaking down all the time (with some players doing more playing outside the system than others — yes, I’m looking at you Von Wafer). This is especially hurting the big men, who are not always getting the ball in a good scoring position. • The first night, fans were there to cheer Andrew Bynum, he got applause for a dunk during pre-game lay-up drills. But, by the end of the second game, it was Ronny Turiaf who has become the big crowd favorite. His energy and obvious love of the game is infectious. • Bynum is raw. Intellectually we all knew that, but in person it is much more in-your-face — he shows flashes but, at least to me, it’s tough to see how much potential is under there. But there is potential there — he has 26 points and 11 rebounds through the two games. There are flashes of power and good decision making. The first game he seemed to struggle with the tempo of the NBA game (even at the Summer League level), that was slightly better in the second game. He seems to be thinking more than just playing (“Where do I need to be?” “Am I supposed to rotate out to cover that guy?”). Also, his conditioning needs work, he tired in both games considerably. He also needs to bulk up — he could not hold position on the offensive low block or push players out of the block on defense, in fact smaller players pushed him around. Against Dallas (second game) he ended up guarding former Kansas standout Eric Chenowith (who has been in the NDBL recently) and the experience factor showed — Chenowith easily handled Bynum, scoring inside and out. Bynum did have two blocks in the first game. I should say Bynum looks slimmer than clips I’ve seen of him in the past, my guess is he’s been working on conditioning and now he has to work on putting on muscle. Combine his lack of strength and bad passing from the guards and he had the problem of getting the ball well outside his comfort range — when he did get it in close he got off some good shots. He is long, very long, but at times still seems awkward in his body. He is already strong and when he grows into it he could be a beast. But it’s too early to know much. • Turiaf hustles as advertised and that with his personality have made him a crowd favorite. He’s showing the reason’s I’m glad the Lakers picked him — but his game has big holes. He shows that four years of college polish that Bynum does not, Turiaf sets good picks and does a good job in getting in rebounding position, plus boxing out. He has one style with the ball — power moves to the basket from the low block. That leads to a lot of fouls (he shot 18 free throws in the two games), at least in the summer league, let’s see about the bigger NBA bodies. He has no outside shot and needs desperately to develop a jumper out to 15 feet to compliment his inside game. His defense is average and he has just one block in more than 50 minutes of play — this needs to improve. While he is big, he still needs to add 10 to 15 pounds to his frame to deal with the stronger NBA players. I think the upside for Turiaf could be a Rambis-like role. • Everything I knew about Von Wafer I got from the Internet, and it didn’t do him justice — he is much more athletic, smooth and tenacious in person than I had expected. He is very quick and his shot is fluid, the problem is it doesn’t go in enough. He was just 4 of 12 in the first game and through two games is shooting 44.4% (eFG%), which says NDBL not NBA for the Lakers right now. I will give him this, he may have had the two best dunks for the Lakers so far, going right at guys five to seven inches taller. He plays fearlessly. He also seems to still be adjusting to the speed of the players and the game at this level, for every two smart moves he makes there is mistake. In both games he started drives that had no hole and left him stuck behind the basket or some other spot (this improved some in the second game). • Sasha Vujacic may be a better back up two than point, and they may be grooming him for that role. The times he looked best was when he was used in a Ray Allen style — he would pop out off a screen, get the ball, turn and shoot. When he did that he was 3 of 4 by my count on Saturday, but when he tried to create he was 1 of 4. Much of the time he was in the game Saturday other people played the one and he played the two. The good news is his passing skills are still there, he made some sharp passes. The bad news is his defense is still questionable — he picked up a lot of fouls rather than stops and he was late on several rotations. • Marcus Douthit, the Lakers second round pick last year, still is not ready. He looks bigger than last year, but he still got pushed around some inside. It’s only been two games, but he is averaging just 8 rebounds per 40 minutes, not great numbers for the SPL (if you’re looking to make an NBA roster as a rebounder). Defensively he had trouble stopping much of anyone in the lane either night. • Will Conrony, a free agent out of Washington, knows how to run a team and plays pretty good man-to-man defense. The downside is he is limited offensively — not great at creating his own shot on the drive at this level and his outside shot is inconsistent (1 of 6 in the two games, 0 of 2 from three point range). He does have good passing skills. • Smush Parker might be an NDBL guy, if not for the Lakers than someone. He has skills and can shoot the ball (he is 12 of 17, 2 of 5 from three point range). He also seems uncomfortable playing within the triangle, although he did make some good passes. He might be a great insurance policy to be called up in case of emergency. • Devon Green gets his points quietly — he has 23 points and 14 rebounds in the two games, but never did anything that stood out athletically. He just seems to keep being in the right place and converting. I’ll be watching him more closely in upcoming games to get a better idea of what he is doing right. • Tony Bobbitt went 0 for 8 in the first game and was generally unimpressive — in the second game he only played the last 3:36. It looks like he is on his way out the door. • I have some notes on players from other teams (Charlie Villenueva among them) but I’ll save them for another post.

Fast Break

2005-07-08T10:15:00.000-07:00

Just a couple of notes to pass along, I’ll be out at the Summer Pro League today, with my first post going up very late Saturday night/Sunday morning. * Andrew Bynum has officially signed with the Lakers, as have most of the first round picks in the NBA. One of the good things about the NBA’s CBA is that you avoid ugly holdouts of first round picks. Sure the top picks are underpaid for their first four years in the league, but no matter where you are picked if you prove yourself you’ll get the big money after that time. * Now this is a new NBA blog worth reading — Dan Rosenbaum, the best writer on the CBA, salary cap and NBA finances has started his own blog. By the way, he’s really good at game/trend statistical analysis as well. Already he has come up with this interesting calculation:

2005-06 Salary Cap - $51.0 million (range of $50.0 to $52.0 million) Luxury Tax Threshold - $61.9 million (range of $60.8 to $63.0 million) Mid-Level Exception - $5.18 million (range of $5.10 to $5.25 million) 2006-07 Salary Cap - $49.4 million (range of $47.0 to $52.0 million) Luxury Tax Threshold - $59.9 million (range of $57.0 to $63.0 million) Mid-Level Exception - $5.66 million (range of $5.35 to $5.80 million)

Yes, you read that right. Check out the site. * I'm afraid to even attend a Los Angeles Dodger game for fear of becoming injured. * Interesting story in the LA Times about how more and more NBA teams are moving their summer league teams to the new Las Vegas league (a place it’s easy to convince players and front office people to spend time). I get that, I love Long Beach but it lacks some of the attractions and distractions found in Vegas. I’m curious what the long-term implications of this are for keeping a good summer league in Southern California. If all the teams are going to Vegas, if that location is going to become a virtual convention for players and general managers, then the Lakers are going to have to move there eventually. * By the way, in the Clippers first summer league game in Vegas (with Shaun Livingston, Chris Kaman and Q. Ross playing) the Clips fell behind 23-4 to the Celtics and lost 76-59. Yes, summer leagues are about development not wins and losses, but that must have been ugly. * Some team is going to pick up Eric Musselman as a coach, and some team is going to be glad they did. * Apparently Larry Hughes is going to Cleveland to play along side LeBron. My gut reaction is, if they wanted an outside shooter and couldn't get Allen or Redd, they would have been better off with Bobby Simmons of the Clippers. Last year, Hughes took 74% of his shots from outside 15 feet, 48% of those were assisted and he shot just 37.4% (eFG%). Simmons took 81% of his shots from outside 15 feet, 85% were assisted and he shot 46% on those. And Simmons is a better defender.

Fast Break

2005-07-06T10:43:00.000-07:00

Here’s the one place you can read some news and notes that don’t talk about Tom Cruise or who to nominate to the Supreme Court (what about David Stern, he is a lawyer). • Teams are talking free agents and blogs like this around the Web are trying to keep up — the best place to get a look at what everyone is saying is at the latest Carnival of the NBA, up at Motoring, the Detroit Pistons blog. • Update: A number of people seem to be coming here looking for what happened to the Lakers Ground message boards — they moved. Just follow that link and you will be there. I'm not really a message board guy (clearly), but this is the one I check the most often, and the new server is faster than the old server like James Worthy was faster than Kevin McHale. • Frank Hamblin will be back this year as an assistant coach under Phil Jackson, along with Kurt Rambis. The other coaching spots are less firm (Brian Shaw is in the mix), but expect those first two to handle the duties at the Summer Pro League. • Knickerblogger will be happy to know Scott Layden still has a job. • Update:: Here is the full Lakers Summer Pro League roster: Andrew Bynum, Ronny Turiaf, Von Wafer, Sasha Vujacic, Marcus Douthit (last year's second round draft pick), Smush Parker (a tall guard with decent defense but prone to turnovers and questionable shooting), Will Conroy (thanks to Kevin Pelton, the man-of-many-places, for that last link), Devin Green, Tony Bobbitt, Trevor Harvey, Carlos Powell and Eric Sandrin (the only non African-American on the Harlem Globetrotters earlier this year). • By the way, check back here on Sunday for my first post from the Summer Pro League, looking at the Lakers first two games plus notes on any other players that look interesting and random stuff that I pick up (ie., the brands of beer served at the Pyramid, the quality of hot dogs, how many autographs Mitch Kupchak gets asked for in an average 10-minutes span, etc.). • The Lakers have hired 26-year-old Spero Dedes to do their radio broadcasts. Has anybody out there heard his work? I’m curious to hear a report. • Years of being the Clippers is coming back to haunt that team. They couldn’t get Kobe last year, Ray Allen never seem to seriously look their way this season. Years of stingy and poor management make it hard to attract free agents, even to a big market team with the potential to be good.

Waiving Hello

2005-07-05T18:30:00.000-07:00

The latest “what ifs” on possible off-season Laker moves are rounded up in a new piece by Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld. (And as a side note, credit to Eric for stepping up and taking responsibility for rumors he reported that never came to fruition, and saying he learned some lessons. Most jounalists in that position blame their sources or say things just changed at the last minute.) The article talks about Bynum’s workouts and how he wowed Lakers’ staff, but the most interesting news was about the Lakers looking at picking up other players who might get waived as part of the one-time CBA get-out-of-jail-free cards teams may get.

Rumors are that Jalen Rose, should he be waived, would sign with the Lakers for the lower level exception as the triangle point guard. That could enable the Lakers to sign Theo Ratliff with some or all of the mid level exception if he is available.

Pincus (and, I’m sure others) sees these two as “significant upgrades,” but I’m not as sold on them. Rose, maybe, but I have concerns about Ratliff. Let me explain. We’ll start with Rose. He is entering his 12th year in the league and last season had a bit of a bounce-back year in Toronto, improving his numbers from the previous years. He had a PER of 16.95 and an eFG% of 50.1%, both big bounces from the previous several years (his PERs were 12.4 and 14.9 the two previous years). He also had a career best 1.12 points per shot attempts. Of his shots, 82% were jumpers from beyond 15 feet, and he shot 47% on those. But for those that picture him as a tall (6-8) point guard in the Laker triangle, I have a question: What about defense? I don’t know how Rose will perform against point guards because last season he spent 54% of his minutes guarding the opposing three and virtually none against point guards. Two years ago he covered some points and had a solid opponents PER of 14.5, but the year before that he guarded twos and threes, never a point. How is he going to do against Steve Nash or Barron Davis? Is he at his age really a step up over Chucky Atkins in this regard? I also have concerns about how much Rose’s numbers will regress next year, but for the lower level exception (about $1.6 million) he could provide some scoring punch. I’m not opposed to getting him, but I wouldn’t expect much. I’d expect even less from Theo Ratliff. At age 32 this past season his numbers entered their second year of decline and it’s a trend I’d expect to continue (just like Brian Grant’s numbers). Ratliff’s FG% fell from 48.5% to 44.7%, he grabbed just 11% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor, down from the above 13% he had the previous three years, and his PER dropped to a career low of 10.1. But we’re getting him for defense and blocked shots, you say. Last year he did average a very good 3.7 blocks per 40 minutes, much better than the best Laker last year (Mihm at 2.3 per 40). However, that was the lowest number for Ratliff in seven years. His opponents PER last year was a worse-than-average of 16 against centers and 17.2 against power forwards. The year before, Ratliff was at 15.2, sticking with the theme of his skills declining. Or look at it this way: Last year Ratliff’s defensive rating (the points scored by the person he was guarding per 100 possessions) was 106, right at the league average. The season before it was 101. Last season was Ratliff’s career worst defensively. Ratliff is another Brian Grant, albeit a much less expensive one. I would love to have the Ratliff of a few years back, but the one playing now is on the downside of his career. The Lakers need a younger, longer-term answer.

Looking At Antonio Daniels

2005-07-04T12:23:00.000-07:00

As names of free angents (or in trades) come up that the Lakers may be interested in I’ll try to give some detailed info on those players. (There may be a bigger post with some of the more discussed names coming up, when I have more time, but I didn’t want to wait on the hottest name on the board.) Mitch Kupchak’s first call apparently was to Antonio Daniels — and that was a good choice. No free agent may be better suited to Phil’s system and fit a Laker need more than the Seattle back up point guard. He would be a great pick up and make the Lakers better almost instantly. Daniels was fourth on the Sonics this past season in +/-, a solid +5.3, and he had a PER of 18.45 (which would have been second on the Lakers to Kobe). He averaged 16.6 points and 6.1 assists per 40 minutes, with just 1.5 turnovers during that same time. He also had a good 1.11 points per shot attempt, which would have ranked him third on the Lakers last year. When on the floor he took about 19% of his teams shots and had an eFG% of 47.8% (solid but not spectacular). To break that down further, about 75% of his shots were jump shots outside of 15 feet, where he shot 42.5%. He shot just 29.7% from three-point range last year, but that may have been on account of how he was used because he shot 36.2% the year before and is at 32% for his career. On the 23% of his shots Daniels took inside of 15 feet he shot 60.7% and he drew a foul on 13.7% of his total shots. More important to filling the Lakers needs is defense, and his opponents PER was just 13.5 (against opposing point guards, he does even better against shooting guards). Opponents shoot just 45.1% (eFG%) against him, for comparison Chuck Atkins number was 49.6%. Daniels would not be a risk-free get for the Lakers — last year he played just 51% of the Sonics minutes, he would likely play more this year and traditionally when minutes and workload go up, efficiency goes down. That said, what Daniels would be asked to do inside of the triangle would be very structured and plays to his strengths — he is not going to be asked to be Steve Nash, but he will get some key opportunities. The biggest problem may be getting him — Cleveland has more money under the cap to offer him and it would take him back to play close to where he grew up (he was born in Columbus), as the linked article above points out. Oh, and they have that LeBron guy. Seattle wants him back as well, but the rumor is he wants to start, something he could do in LA. The Lakers have just the mid-level exception to offer (expected to be about $5.3 million), which would be a big step up from the $2.2 he made the last two years but maybe less than other offers. But the Lakers do have the draws of Phil, Kobe and the legacy, not to mention the chance to meet Jack Nicholson. I've got my fingers crossed for this one.

Should He Stay Or Should He Go Now?

2005-07-01T13:32:00.000-07:00

It was one of the most common refrains of Laker fans and management last year — “Just wait until 2007 when we clear out some cap space.” Allow me to translate that: “Just wait until 2007 when we don’t have to pay Brian Grant $15 million a year to be a washed up power forward forced to play center.” Then came a ray of light from the new CBA — the Lakers may be able to dump Grant now. The new CBA is allowing a one-time only chance to waive players with bloated contracts — you still have to pay them and they still count against the salary cap, but they don’t take up any space on the roster and, most importantly, they don’t count against the luxury tax (which next season likely will be at a threshold of about $60 million, a figure the Lakers are over). Waiving Grant could save Jerry Buss as much as $30 million in the next two years, which from his perspective may make it seem like a no-brainer. But if he does it he will set the franchise’s rebuilding back. The reason the Lakers have and will struggle to get top players in trades (ala Baron Davis) is that most teams want expiring contracts back. What the trading team is trying to do is send off a valuable asset and his big price tag for players that will be gone come the end of the next season so they have money go after players they think better fit whatever rebuilding plan they have. In recent years, the Lakers have had few expiring deals to dangle, but this year they finally have a few — Chucky Atkins, Devean George, Vlade and more. But next year, Brian Grant is the big chit. Here is $15 million in salary a team can trade for and then kiss goodbye at the end of the season — teams will give up a fair amount of talent to get something like that. Waiving Brian Grant and watching him walk out the door (likely to pay for pennies somewhere else in the limited minutes backup role he should be in anyway) will save Dr. Buss a lot of money, and it’s easy for me to say not to because it’s not my money being risked. And I know keeping Grant is a risk, it ties up a roster spot this season and there is no guarantee you will be able to make a trade next year. But, just like drafting Andrew Bynum was a risk now for a potential big payoff down the line, keeping Grant is the same type of move. Send him off and save money, but keep him and next summer, or maybe right before the trading deadline in the 06-07 season, you may very well get a big payoff. A payoff that will make the Lakers contenders again a lot sooner. ------------------------ One final quick thought on Andrew Bynum. I wrote this about Gerald Green in a pre-draft preview:

Here’s my thing with high schoolers — it’s more about their mental makeup. They’ve got to have the physical skills or they wouldn’t be considered, but does the kid have maturity about him and a good work ethic? Kobe did. Garnett did. LeBron did. You get the idea. I don’t know about Green, but the Lakers need a good answer to this question first.

I don’t know about Bynum either, but I like what I’ve heard from him so far.

Draft Notes

2005-06-29T13:49:00.000-07:00

Just a collection of thoughts: • We’ve all got questions about Andrew Bynum — is he the next Shaq or (as Dan R. put it) the next Stanley Roberts? The first look at him will be at the Summer Pro League in Long Beach, which I will be attending as much of as I can. The league starts July 8 so check back here, I’ll post notes and thoughts on players from the Lakers and other teams (or, at least I’ll post the stuff I remember before I have the sixth beer of the night). • Some great stuff in the live draft chat during the David Stern Show last night, thanks to those that came (and put up with technical difficulties at peak times). Best line of the night goes to the very clever Matt from Bulls Blog (talking about the ubiquitous commercials with the Duke coach):

Coach K! Did you help Jay Williams learn motorcycle safety? (yes, I'm bitter)

• Think of it this way, we traded Kareem Rush for Ronny Turiaf (he was taken with one of the picks we got from the Bobcats for Rush). I’d make that deal again. • Because he’s a high school product there aren’t good numbers on Bynum, but I was able to get them on Ronny Turriaf (thanks Hoopsanalyst): He shot 50.8% on the season and averaged 17.8 points and 10.7 rebounds per 35 minutes (with the pros we tend to break that down to average per 40 minutes, but with college that would be the entire game). He also averaged 1.6 points per shot attempt, a good number, made better by the fact he gets to the free throw line often. Finally, he had 2.1 blocks per 35 minutes, but he’s not expected to be anywhere near that in the pros. • I searched the Web and found some video clips of Bynum, but I’m not sure they show much since every other player on the court comes up to his shoulders. • I think now we can all agree that the best part of the NBA draft was Deron William’s girlfriend. • Bill Simmons (aka The Sports Guy) has his Draft Diary up at ESPN site, this is traditionally his best column of the year. • How far was Von Wafer off the radar? He was not even invited to the Chicago pre-draft camp. • Finding info on Wafer has not been easy, but what I do find makes me question the pick even more. He was twice suspended early and often benched late in the season at Florida State. Everyone says he’s gifted offensively. This guy — a skinny guard who can shoot but not defend — is a classic Mitch K. pick up, ala Kareem Rush (except this guy is no Rush). • What’s frustrating about Wafer is not taking the gamble on him, that’s what the second round is for, but other gambles that fit Laker needs like Chris Taft and Roko-Leni Ukic were still on the board. • I am very saddened by the passing of Shelby Foote. Count me as one of the few people who, after seeing him in the Ken Burns documentary, purchased his epic Civil War trilogy and read it. I then met him briefly when he got an honorary doctorate from Notre Dame (at the same time my brother was getting his MBA). He brought history to life in a way I wish more books and educators could.

Laker Draft: First Impression

2005-06-28T21:53:00.000-07:00

Since the Shaq trade, Laker fans have had to be patient and point to the 07-08 and 08-09 seasons, when (with the right moves) the Lakers could be back. Andrew Bynum fits right in with that. If he grows into his potential, in 08 he is going to be a force to be reckoned with inside. He will anchor the team inside (with Mihm at the four or as a backup) to go with Kobe outside. If this works, Mitch Kupchak will have the steal of the draft and be hailed as Westian. But, it could flop as Bynum never develops (or has weight issues), at which point, Mitch will be thrown into a shark tank at the Long Beach Aquarium. As Tenlay said in the comments during the draft, Mitch may well be remembered for how this pick pans out. What this pick does not do is help the Lakers much next year — Bynum is raw. The Lakers are going to have to make trades or get free agents to fill the obvious needs for a point guard who can defend and a shot blocking/rebounding presence inside. Next year’s Lakers are no better than last year’s Lakers after draft night. Phil Jackson does not like playing rookies much, so maybe going the free agent/trade route is what he wants in the short term. But bringing in the needed players is a set of moves only the most optimistic (or drunk and deluded) Laker fans have complete confidence in Mitch pulling off. Bynum is the long term. He overpowered kids in high school (he's 7-0, 300), using his size and not needing to develop polished post moves. Now, every night, he’s going to see players close to his size and just as strong. There are questions about his footwork, and because of that his ability to defend active NBA big men. But there is time to improve all that. If he can polish and add to his game, he can become a great force. — I like what he said to AP after being drafted:

"I want to bring back the skyhook, which Kareem left behind there. That's one of my favorite shots.”

I also love the first of the Lakers two second round picks, Ronny Turiaf. The Gonzaga star is not going to be an NBA star, but he works hard and plays with a nasty streak in the paint. A guy like that, coming off the bench, is something every team can use, particularly the Lakers who kept bringing in Brian Cook as a power forward to hang out at the three-point line. He’s not going to get a lot of playing time in the triangle, but like Luke Walton a couple of years ago he fits a need and his effort may get him more time as the year goes on. My guess is Von Wafer will be the first Laker sent to whatever NDBL team they hook up with. The Florida State product is a Phil-style guard in that he’s 6-5, and he was his team’s three-point specialist. The down side is that he is considered a defensive liability. If he wants it, if he goes down to the NDBL and busts his butt, there is room on every team for a guy who can drain the three consistently. You just can’t be a black hole at the other end.

Draft Party: Going Big and Young

2005-06-28T14:13:00.000-07:00

With the 10th pick the Lakers passed over the heralded Gerald Green for Andrew Bynum, a 7-0, 300 pound high school kid who, if he had gone to UConn may have been the number one pick next year. That said, he's a project, raw but with a big potential payoff. Read an interview with him here. Come into the comments and talk about it. -------------- We've got a sweet little party set up here — there's beer in the fridge, wings are set out and I even went to the cheese shop to get a nice assortment. Make yourself at home. The draft is about to get underway and there will be a running comentary in the comment thread below, just click on it and join in. Everyone is welcome, even Clipper fans. I will post any news updates on this part of the site as well. • The first big trade of the day was Portland sending the third pick overall to Utah for the sixth and 27th picks, plus a conditional first round pick next year. I think Portland may win out in that deal.

Rumors Gone Wild

2005-06-27T11:03:00.000-07:00

Update: The latest Laker draft rumor wrap up is at Hoopsworld, and the theme seems to be “what can you get at 10?” Not to be too Zen about it, but the Lakers are going to make a trade or they are not, and on Tuesday morning I’m not even sure Mitch knows which that will be. For fun, here’s who the Lakers take at 10 in a few last mock drafts: Hoopsanalyst: Charlie Villanueva Draft Express: Martell Webster Hoopshype: Raymond Felton NBADraft.net: Charlie Villanueva Basketball draft central:Andrew Bynum Inside Hoops: Martell Webster Yahoo: Raymond Felton ESPN: Charlie Villanueva ----------------- While I may take a more levelheaded, analytical approach to fandom, I like the NBA draft rumor games more than just about any other Rumors. Along those lines, here are some thoughts and draft rumors heading into the Tuesday event, plus any other thoughts that pop into my head. If any new rumors get hot in the next 24 hours or so, I’ll post updates here. • Rumors that are out there (read while eating something salty): Dan, the Indiana/Lakers deal (Devean George, Slava and a second round pick for Jonathan Bender and the 17) is still out there but it's not done yet, and now the New York Daily News has it (which may not be a good sign); The Lakers and Portland have talked about trading so Los Angeles can move up to the three, but apparently the Blazers want to move Ruben Patterson as part of any deal (maybe something like the 10th pick, Caron Butler and Vlade for Ruben and the three); The Lakers also have talked with New Orleans (the fourth pick) and Charlotte (the fifth pick). • My hunch is that the Lakers are more likely to make a trade than not, but you’re not going to a see a trade until draft day or during the event itself. For example, Charlotte may be willing to move their pick but only if a player they want (Chris Paul?) doesn’t fall to them. We shall see what happens. As a side note, I think trades not involving draft picks may be pushed back a little just because of the new CBA (there’s no pressure to get things done before it expires and GMs want to see what their new cap figure is). • Some of the best player breakdowns are at Hoopsanalyst, where all five positions are now up. They love the potential of Charlie Villanueva and they think Andrew Bogut compares well to what the NBA’s current top centers did in college. Worth the reads. • One interesting mock draft is up at the Lakersground.net message board, posted by one of the moderators and better posters on the site, who goes by Dancing Barry. I don’t know that his is more (or less) accurate than anyone else posting mocks, paid sites or not, and nobody can predict the trades that will happen. What this does have is good player breakdowns. Also, this site has a new look that is a huge step up. • Would your vote for MVP change if it was taken after the playoffs rather than before? Roland Beech, the man behind 82games.com, asked that question on the APBR Board, and it’s an interesting query. Over the course of the playoffs, Tim Duncan was actually in the negative, meaning the Spurs outplayed their opponents with him off the court but not on. My vote, which would have been Dirk Nowitzki before, very likely would have changed. • I had said the biggest advantage to bringing Phil Jackson on board in LA is that at least there would be a plan in place to get better and it would start with defense. Right about now, Knickerblogger is wishing Isaiah Thomas had one of those “plans” for New York.

The Others

2005-06-25T11:28:00.000-07:00

Sure, right now the Laker roster has more small forwards on it than Lindsay Lohan has pictures on the Internet. Well, at least it seems that way. But I would not be shocked if come draft day the Lakers add another one, even in the first round. And it may not be a bad thing. The Lakers may have a ton of threes, but if they end up trading Butler and another couple guys (despite Mitch Kupchak’s denials) adding a versatile athlete who can fit in the triangle with Kobe and Lamar is not a bad idea. There are a couple of options out there. While we’ve looked at players that fill a need (point guards and power forwards), here is a quick look at other potential draftees for the Lakers. Gerald Green. Remember when Jerry Buss sent Kupchak into the lions’ den late last season, telling him to preside over a meeting with season ticket holders? Among the most interesting things Mitch said that night was he was very interested in a particular high school player — I thought it was a smoke screen at first, but it appears not. If the Lakers end up trading up to the 3/4/5 spot, Green may be the Lakers choice (if not a point guard). This is a 19-year old high schooler (the new draft rules would not have affected him) who is considered maybe the best athlete in the draft but very raw. Last year he averaged 33 points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists per game. Here’s my thing with high schoolers — it’s more about their mental makeup. They’ve got to have the physical skills or they wouldn’t be considered, but does the kid have maturity about him and a good work ethic? Kobe did. Garnett did. LeBron did. You get the idea. I don’t know about Green, but the Lakers need a good answer to this question first. Danny Granger. He would fit the triangle well because his game is versatile — he can distribute the ball and hits the boards hard. Also a good shot blocker and defender. Oh, and he can score, too. Everybody likes him, the only knock may be he’s had some back issues in college. I’m not opposed to this, but if you take him you’ve got to clear out room on the roster for him. Martell Webster. Another high schooler who may go in the lottery, and whose stock is rumored to be rising. Webster is considered less athletic but a better pure shooter than Green. However, his defense is questionable. Good NBA body. Hmmm, a good shooter who doesn’t care about defense in the triangle? Maybe he is the second coming of Glenn Rice. While not a bad pick if the Lakers take him I’d be surprised. ----------------------- In my look at point guards I mentioned a couple of potential second round picks for the Lakers. Here are a few more names just for fun. Salim Stoudemire, PG. He may not be on the board when the Lakers draft in the second round, but if he falls that far how can you pass up a guy at that point you know can score? Scouts say he’s the best shooter in the draft, and after watching him torch UCLA for a couple of years I know he can hit the NBA three consistently. He may be a three-point specialist, but that’s not a bad thing. He may well not be around, though. Randolph Morris, PF/C. He’s just a freshman out of Kentucky, but at 6-10, 260 the Lakers can wait a year or two for him to develop. He shows flashes but then takes games off, is that youth or his personality? With the new NDBL rules this might be a great second round pick, take him and let him develop in another league and bring him up if and when he’s ready. Dwayne Jones, PF/C. Played for St. Joe’s in Philly so we out West don’t see him much if at all. Thin but tall, 6-10, 240. He plays defense and rebounds, but is offensive game is weak. However, a big guy who could play good D and grab some boards for 10-15 minutes a game (in a year or so) isn’t a bad second round grab. Mile Ilic, C. The last Yugoslavian center the Lakers drafted turned out pretty good. He’s 7-1, 240, so some bulk would be nice, especially since the book is he’s soft. This would be another draft of potential, someone who needs a few years to see if he can play in the NBA. Ronny Turiaf, PF. I loved his energy and attitude at Gonzaga — he’s got a mean streak. Scouts say he’s raw and inconsistent, but this is a guy who is going to work hard (you can teach skills). He’s what you want in an 11th or 12th guy on the bench because he’ll bust his butt in practice. I like the guy, but in the NBA his best case scenario is still energy guy on the bench, if you’re drafting on potential there is more out there.

Weekend Reading

2005-06-24T10:03:00.000-07:00

Want to pass on a couple of fascinating links worth checking out, both for Laker fans and just hoops fans. It may seem a little odd to talk about basketball on Only Baseball Matters, but Broken Cowboy has done an interesting interview with Charlie Rosen talking about his new book — The Pivotal Season: How the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers Changed the NBA — as well as other topics from how that team was the first to do shootarounds the mornings of games drug use in the NBA. And of course, there’s a little talk of the current Lakers. It’s a lengthy, wide-ranging and well-done Q&A, I’m going to pass on a couple of highlights to whet your appetite:

(The 71-72 Lakers) were like a mystery team. Because they played out in California, and the media center was still in New York, still on the East Coast, so nobody knew what was happening out there. You rarely saw them on television. I mentioned in the book, even a playoff game was on delayed tape. They played some auto, NASCAR race, that was also on delayed tape. Nobody really knew who they were or what were they all about. What’s so great about them? They were a rumor on the East Coast. Kobe is selfish, and he’s an egomaniac, and he’s impulsive, and he’s arrogant, and he’s this, this, this... but there’s something about him that is appealing. He is a nice kid. And deep down in there there is, at least there used to be, this kind of effervescent quality about him that’s very appealing. And it’s there. It’s kind of hidden and locked away, but it’s still there. Plus, Phil respects his talent. Is he the best player in the NBA? Phil thinks so. He’s a clutch player, too, not afraid to make the clutch shots. And when he’s into it, he’s just as good a defensive player as he is an offensive player. He is a Jordanesque type player, which you can’t say about anyone else in the game today. So I think Phil thinks there’s enough there for them to connect.

Caron Butler may or may not be a Laker next season, and he knows it. He did a Q&A with his local paper in Racine, Wisconsin, where he talks about a host of NBA topics (including that the Bucks should draft Williams over Bogut).

I was at the press conference and I also was at the gym when (Phil) came in the next day. We were working out some draftees and he was telling me how he wanted to use me. He wanted me to continue to work on my ball handling. I'm going to handle the ball a lot, just like I did my first year in Miami (2002-03). It's kind of like Scottie Pippen played in the triangle offense, bringing the ball up and doing a lot of things with it, so I'm going to be able to use my versatility.

Sit Back and Enjoy

2005-06-23T11:59:00.000-07:00

Anything I say will detract from the drama. If you want a little history of NBA Finals game sevens, Hoopsanalyst has an interesting post up (but be warned, the Lakers have not faired well in these games historically). Just open a beer and be ready for what should be a fun game to watch.

Let’s Get Small

2005-06-22T12:46:00.000-07:00

Last season the Lakers’ weakest point was at the point — it was the worst cog offensively and the worst cog defensively. It is clearly one of the team’s pressing needs this summer. That doesn’t change with the arrival of Phil Jackson — what does change is who will be looked at. The Lakers don’t need a classic ball distributor (ala John Stockton) because ball-handling duties are more spread out in Jackson’s offense. But they still need someone who can defend. The good news is they may be able to get that through the draft — point guard is the deepest position in this year’s class. The bad news is everybody wants one. Teams drafting ahead of the Lakers such as Utah, Toronto, New Orleans and more need a point guard, too. That’s why, if the Lakers do decide to trade up, I think they will be looking at point guards — they will have their eye on someone and will be moving up to get him. So, to quote early Steve Martin, let’s get small. (As I wrote for the post on Bigs: This is my current list of who the Lakers should draft. This list is subject to change because, frankly, I haven't seen all these guys play (I just try to read a lot) and I've been known to change my mind. I can be swayed by good arguments/evidence.) 1) Deron Williams: He’s big (6-3, 210), tested out as quick as Raymond Felton in the Chicago pre-draft camp and he stepped up on the big stage in the NCAA Tournament this year. Oh, add to that he is best known for his defense, which is NBA ready. His shooting may be a step behind — he shot 36.4% from the college three-point line last season and scored 1.19 points per shot attempt, both good but not great college numbers — but he can score some and has shown a great work ethic. This kid screams “Phil Jackson-style” point guard. To get him, the Lakers will have to trade up because he will be gone by three or four. 2) Chris Paul: He is the consensus best point guard in the draft and has had his all-around game compared to Jason Kidd. He shot 47.4% from three-point range and scored 1.54 points per shot attempt. And lest your forget two years ago, he carried Georgia Tech to the NCAA Final Four. He’s quick and a solid defender. He’s a can’t miss type guy. He’s gone unless the Lakers trade up. 3) Raymond Felton: Here’s where it gets hard, I think the Lakers could go with Felton or Jarrett Jack if they stay at 10 (and if Felton is still on the board at that point). I’m putting Felton on top because of defense — he’s quick and showed in the NCAA Tournament this year he can stop just about anyone and that is something the Lakers need. The knock on his defense at the NBA level is Felton is just 6-0, but he is a strong 200 pounds — this is not a Chucky Atkins body, think more Derek Fisher’s build. He will not get pushed around much if he is posted up. Offensively, last season he started to develop a more consistent outside shot and hit 35.8% of his three pointers. Felton’s athleticism may fit better in a run-and-gun style, but he would be a big upgrade for the Lakers. 4) Jarrett Jack: Two years ago, when he had more talent around him, Jack was primarily a passer. This past season, he took on more of the scoring load. Basically, he can do what he wants offensively. He fits the Phil Jackson mold by being 6-3, 200. His defense is considered good, not great. Did have some turnover issues, but that may be less of a concern in the triangle where he would not be the only ball handler/distributor. Jack is solid everywhere if not spectacular anywhere, if the Lakers take him they will get a guy who can fit in quickly. ----------------------------- If the Lakers take a point guard in the first round, it will be one of those four. What follows are some point guards who may be around when the Lakers draft in the second round (they have picks 37 and 39, providing those aren’t traded). These guys are more projects but may make the team. Daniel Ewing: He comes out of Duke, so you know his fundamentals are solid. He’s 6-3, 185 and played both guard positions in college so he has some versatility. The good news is he is a tenacious defender and may someday become a defensive stopper off the bench. The downside is his offense is questionable and his ball handling average. He may develop into a point. I like the idea of taking him, maybe sending him to the NDBL for a year (maybe not) and trying to develop the offensive part of his game. If Phil wants defenders, this is a good second round pick. John Gilchrist: He’s 6-2, 200 pounds with a good all around game offensively and he could be a defensive stopper. Scouts say his game is that of a poor man’s Marbury. So, if he’s all that, why isn’t he listed in the upper part of the draft? Attitude. He had attitude problems in high school then was basically asked to leave the Maryland program. He seemed to quit the second half of this past season and Hoopsanalyst said he looked lazy. Does Phil (and Kobe, really) want a project on his hands? If so, this guy could be a real steal. Or, he could flame out. Travis Diener: You know, that last point guard to come out of Marquette wasn’t bad… but don’t confuse the two. At 6-0, 165 Diener is considered a bit small and frail, that said he was impressive at the Chicago camp, where he may have been the best point guard playing. His quickness is average at best, but he makes up for it with court IQ and effort. He has good shooting range, hitting 41% of his college three pointers. He may make a good NBA bench player. Nate Robinson: He was one of the most fun players to watch in the NCAA this past season and fans will love him in the NBA, but at 5-9 I just have a hard time seeing the Lakers drafting him. He’s quick enough to get to the hole offensively but his outside shot is questionable. If I have a running style team I take a shot on him, but that’s not the Lakers under Phil.

Draft Party at My Place

2005-06-21T17:38:00.000-07:00

I’d invite you all down to Redondo Beach, but then I’d have to clean up all my daughter’s toys in the living room and that’s just not going to happen. So, instead the goal is to have a live running commentary thread on the entire NBA Draft night here at FB&G. I had thought about keeping a live running blog going, but that lacks the interaction I’m hoping for. So, we’re going to do it in the comment threads — basically, this should look like a Dodger Thoughts game thread (not that we’re going to reach 30 posts, let alone 300, but that’s the idea). Not only will we talk about the Lakers picks but also we’ll mock whoever takes Bogut, bitch about the Bill Walton and more. So, here’s your chance to be a real quality geek (along with me), watching television and commenting on it on the Internet at the same time. I’ll open a thread next Tuesday (June 28), but I want you to be aware, give your wife/girlfriend money to go to the movies with her friends and clear out your schedule.

CBA Deal Done

2005-06-21T10:35:00.000-07:00

Update: I just saw this on ESPN about the new CBA:

Each team will be given a one-time option this summer to waive one player from its roster and receive luxury tax relief. The team will still have to pay the player and his salary will still count against the cap, but the team won't have to pay a luxury tax on his salary.

That means that the Lakers can waive Brian Grant, who no team will take, then will not have to pay luxury tax on his $14 million. That will help keep the Lakers under the tax threshold and may free them to go after free agents. Now, back to the regularly scheduled post..... ---------------------- ESPN is reporting that there will be a press conference today announcing a new deal between the players and owners that will avoid a lockout. Even better for us here in Southern California, it means that the Summer Pro League will go on as scheduled. Yesterday I linked to a story from Dan Rosenbaum about the CBA negotiations — he updated that on his own site with some thoughts on the proposed agreement (as presented by ESPN.com), here are some highlights:

The deal that Chad Ford is outlining, in my opinion, is a big, big win for the union. It appears much more favorable to the players than the current collective bargaining agreement and the deal I propose in this piece. If this pretty much is the current outline for the next deal, I would expect an explosive free agent market this summer. Teams should expect to pay substantially more for free agents than they did in the last few summers. The higher salary cap will result in more teams having more room under the salary cap and the change in how luxury and escrow taxes are distributed will greatly lessen the effect of luxury taxes on spending. Luxury and escrow tax distributions are equal for all 30 teams. There also is no “super” tax on high-spending teams. This is a huge concession by the owners. The distribution scheme in the current deal arguably reduced team spending more than the luxury tax itself did. Without the 300 or 400 percent effective tax rate on team salary just above the luxury tax threshold, teams will be more willing to pay the luxury tax. The league must have given in on this point due to pressure from its teams.

The new salary cap will be in the $50 million range. The Lakers already have $64.3 million in salary committed for next year (that number includes the $5 million for Divac that is unlikely to be paid in full and no money for Luke Walton or draft picks). If this is going to be an aggressive free agent market it will make it that much harder for the Lakers to make a run at players we may want but now will be overpaid. We will have to see how the new CBA affects Dr. Buss’s willingness to go over the luxury tax threshold to bring in players. Rosenbaum suggests that owners such as Buss may be more willing, but we shall see.

Fast Break

2005-06-20T12:13:00.000-07:00

For Father’s Day I got to sit and watch an entire NBA playoff game relatively uninterrupted (and thanks to TiVo, nothing is missed). And what a game to catch. Duncan doing his Shaq imitation from the free throw line, Horry looking young and a close game with drama. Now that is why I love this game. While watching I scribbled some notes on the Lakers and other things, so here they are: • If you’re Rasheed Wallace, wouldn’t one of your most painful memories be the 2000 Western Conference Finals, when your Trailblazers lost to the Lakers, including blowing a 15-point lead in game seven? Wouldn’t you remember what a key part of those games Robert Horry was in beating you? Wouldn’t that be seared into your brain even five years later? Then why do you leave him to double Manu in the corner and let him have an open three with the game on the line? • The underrated coaching move of game 5 was the Spurs putting Bowen on Billups in the fourth quarter. Billups had been eating Parker alive and he was the obvious go to guy — then when Bowen went on him the Pistons struggled. • Draft rumors are flying faster than a Jamaican sprinter. Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld again does the best wrap up in his new article. Among the things worth noting, he says that the Devean George, Slava Medvedenko and the 37th pick to the Indiana Pacers for Jonathan Bender and the 17th pick deal is done. He said the Lakers are talking several deals, including a couple with the Hornets that could net Jamaal Magloire and PJ Brown for Caron Butler and some last year contracts. He said that the Lakers are high on high schooler Gerald Green. He said a lot more, it’s a must read. • There are almost as many NBA Draft Web sites as blogs, and with just as many opinions. Here is who a number of them say the Lakers will take (assuming they stay at 10): Draft Express: Channing Frye Hoopshype: Fran Vazquez NBADraft.net: Charlie Villanueva Basketball draft central: Jarrett Jack Inside Hoops: Martynas Andriuskevicius Yahoo: Charlie Villanueva ESPN: Raymod Felton • I hope to have a point guards draft preview for the Laker up tomorrow, Wednesday at the latest. • Dan Rosenbaum — who was involved in the negotiations during the last round of CBA bargaining — has posted an in depth piece about the current NBA negotiations. He makes suggestions on keeping youth not ready out of the league and ways to reduce contract length that are innovative. Very interesting, but clear out some time on the schedule because it's not a short read. • Bill Simmons at ESPN.com has been ripping on using Rob Thomas’ highly annoying “This Is How A Heart Breaks” bumper music for the NBA Finals. He’s right. But what’s bugging me more is Coors Light taking a song that was good to start with — Love Train by the O'Jays — and poisoning it for me by turning it into a commercial with a train full of bad beer. That is the song that is stuck in my head — which wouldn't be so bad but now I associate it with swill beer and that’s what ticks me off. It was like when Sinatra’s “Just the way you look, tonight” became a Michelob commercial — why does Sinatra want to take a good song and associate it with that crap? (I always thought the “It’s not beer — it’s Michelob” slogan was ironically accurate.) • Look at how deep the Western Conference is right now and you see why it will be hard just for Phil and the Lakers to make the playoffs next year. Just off the top of my head: San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Denver and Houston will be the top five, and I might put Seattle there depending on what happens with their many free agents. Only two teams could potentially fall out and they are both pretty good — Sacramento and Memphis. Ready to swoop in are Minnesota, Golden State with Baron Davis, the Clippers and the Lakers. There are just few easy games in the West and who can stay healthy will be a big factor. • New Minnesota coach Dwayne Casey was one of the guys stats guru Dean Oliver worked well with in Seattle, according to a message board post from Oliver himself. Minnesota is a team with a lot of potential to very good again very soon.

Let’s Go Big

2005-06-18T14:47:00.000-07:00

Now that Phil is making a daily commute from Playa to Health South (with Jeannie in the passenger’s seat), we can start to focus on the draft. Expect changes — I’d be more surprised if the Lakers don’t make trades before and on draft day than if they stand pat. It’s going to take more than one summer to get this roster in shape, but I expect moves will start sooner rather than later. Everyone is on the same page that there are two glaring player needs for the Lakers — a point guard who can defend and a rebound-grabbing, shot blocking presence inside. Through the draft the Lakers can address one of those in the first round (whatever spot they draft from). This draft is deeper in point guards — after making this big man’s draft list, I realized there aren’t a lot of good bigs. I put together this list with Phil in mind — looking for someone to play the Dennis Rodman role in the triangle. It includes both centers and power forwards here because the idea of moving Chris Mihm to the four is not without some merit — he can run the floor and doesn’t have to get the ball with his back to the basket. So let’s talk bigs — this is my current draft of who the Lakers should draft if they go big at 10. This list is subject to change because, frankly, I haven't seen all these guys play (I just try to read a lot) and I've been known to change my mind. I can be swayed by good arguments/evidence. 1) Andrew Bogut: Thank god we don’t actually have to make a decision on whether or not this guy is the next Bill Walton, the next Brad Miller or the next Sam Bowie. He may have flopped in the Chicago pre-draft camp, but he’ll still go in the top two. Even if the Lakers move up he won’t be around, so I’m not going to deal with him. 2) Fran Vazquez: One good thing about guys who play in the top European leagues for a few years is, much like the guys who go to college, you get a good look at them. People who follow Europe are high on this guy. Don’t think Vazquez is the new Darko: he’s 22, 6-10 and 230 and comes ready to play in the NBA. He averaged 11.3 points and 5.8 rebounds in 20 minutes per game this season in Spain. His offense may not be up with his defense yet, but scouts say he has a solid jumper out to about 15 feet. Some players listed below may have more “upside” but here you are getting a good player who will be around for a while. The Lakers need sure more than potential right now. I’d take him if he fell to 10, but they should go after a point if they trade up. 3) Channing Frye: He’s got an NBA body — 6-11 and 250 with a good vertical — and put up good numbers (15.8 points, 7.6 rebound and 2.3 blocks a game) in a good system for a good coach in Arizona. However, those are not great numbers (particularly rebounds) and Frye is trying to shake his reputation as soft (he had a good workout in the Chicago predraft). I watched him a couple of times this year and rather than soft he just seems to just take parts of the game off — he just disappears for a while. Phil and Kobe may be able to correct that by riding him. Rumor is the Knicks are high on him at #8. 4) Ike Diogu: After the top three I think there’s a drop off, this is The last big guy I’d take at 10. A very polished offensive player — I watched a handful of his games this season and he was double and triple teamed every time he touched the ball, but he still scored in double digits every game. There were questions about his height, but he measured a legitimate 6-8 with the wingspan of someone 7-2, according to Chad Ford at ESPN. He averaged 9.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game this past year as well. The downside is he is not known as a great defender and is too slow to cover the fours he’ll see a lot of in the NBA. He’s not going to block many shots at the next level. I’d prefer someone else at 10, but it depends on who is left on the board, Diogu may be the best choice. 5) Andrew Bynum: If you’re going to take on a project, take on one that could be a star one day. Bynum is a legit 7-0, 300 pounds coming out of high school and has a lot of skill. He also is very raw at both ends of the court — if he goes to UConn for two years he may well be the #1 overall pick. If the rumored Laker trade with Indiana goes through and we get the #17 overall pick (and keep it), I’d consider Bynum strongly. The Lakers reportedly have worked him out privately so they may have an idea of what he can do. Not many physical specimens like this come along and he may be worth the wait. 6) Hakim Warrick: One of the best athletes in the draft and he has performed well on the biggest college stage (remember how good he was in Syracuse’s run to the title?). He’s very quick. The knock on him is he is a tweener — a 6-8, 215 power forward who is too small to be an NBA four but is not really a three. For the Lakers, he’s a good fit in the interchangeable triangle system Phil has talked about putting in, but he’s not going to grab a lot of board or block a lot of shots, filling those much-needed roles. I’d consider at 17. 7) Sean May: As he showed in the NCAA Tournament, he is very good on the block — he’s a polished scorer and will grab plenty of boards in the NBA. I think, in the right setting, he can have good NBA career. That said, I don’t see him fitting in with what the Lakers are trying to build — a 6-8 he’s not going to intimidate in the paint and certainly will struggle to guard the fours in the NBA. He can’t play the three. Again, I’d consider at 17, depends on who is still out there. 8-9) Charlie Villanueva and Chris Taft: I’ve lumped these two together because they present the same challenge — lottery talent that would be a great fit for the Lakers but questionable desire. Taft’s stock is dropping like a rock after some terrible workouts, so that makes Villanueva better by default, I guess. NBAdraft.net has the Lakers taking Charlie at 10. But I really watched Villanueva during the NCAA tourney and was very unimpressed — he was slow and looked lost defensively, looked confused by Vermont’s double teams and was outworked on the glass by lesser players. If some combination of Kobe/Phil/Shaw/Rambis/Mitch/their moms can motivate these guys they are great picks, but guys who can’t get up for the NCAA tourney have to be questioned. If there is nobody else good on the board at 17 maybe, but even then I’d rather have a guy who is a lesser athlete but will work hard when the paychecks start to come in.

Beating Dancers Into Plow Horses

2005-06-16T12:25:00.000-07:00

Update: If you're looking for more of what's next with the Lakers, Eric Pincus has his latest story up at Hoopsworld. Among the things he's reporting is that the rumored trade of Devean George, Slava and a second round pick to Indiana for the #17 pick and Jonathan Bender will happen before the draft. Now, back to my origional post... “This roster has too many dancers and not enough plow horses.” That was Phil Jackson’s comment about the Laker roster while being interviewed on 1540 The Ticket Wednesday by Jennie Buss and Kurt Rambis (Jackson had to face Larry King-quality softballs from that pair). While he did not get pressed for details, he did lay out some vision for the future. He talked several times about the need for defense and toughness, the need for plow horses to guard and get rebounds and not just score. Also, this will not be your year-2000 triangle offense, Jackson said that without Shaq there will be a lot more flexibility, diversity and new wrinkles in the Laker game plan. (As a side note, he said the triangle with Shaq was effective but predictable, the ball went into Shaq in the low block and what happened out of that was simplistic but hard to guard. The wide ranging potential of the offense will be explored now, he said.) Phil envisions a team with a number of interchangeable parts — a host of players between 6-5 and 6-10 — who can fill various roles on the team. As I said before, that sounds a lot like the early 90s Bulls to me. In that light, below is a list of players — some Lakers, some free agents and some potential draft picks — with a little speculation as to what the return of Phil and his new look triangle could mean. Kobe Bryant: One interesting thing Phil said about the much-discussed relationship between the two — in addition to the usual “there is a lot of trust built up” and that he and Kobe will be fine. What is important to the success of the team is how the rest of the teammates perceive the relationship between the two. Kobe is the leader on this team and if the other players see Kobe and Phil getting along and Kobe following Phil’s direction, they will fall right in line. Brian Grant: It took only a couple of minutes into Phil’s welcome back press conference to call him out. The 2002-03 Grant — with his 50.9% shooting percentage, 1.10 points per shot attempt and impressive 18.3% rebound rate — would be the perfect plow horse along the Laker baseline in the triangle. The problem is the Lakers have a $14 million a year contract with the knees of the 04-05 Grant. He may not start, but the Lakers need to get 20 minutes a night from him. My guess is what Phil wants out of Grant is to be a one-year stopgap — give us one more solid year. The following year that enormous last-year contract becomes trade bait. This year Phil needs it not to be dead weight. Grant may be working at it but I’m not sure how much Lakers can expect. Lamar Odom: He’s the other dancer Phil is going to ask a lot of. He is going to get put in better situations scoring — he’s got to respond. And his defense has got to improve. Phil is going to give Lamar a chance, but if he falls short he’s on the trading block at the end of the year if not earlier. Vlade Divac: Another potential stop gap if the Lakers can’t find a better and younger defender in free agency or the draft. The last seven games of the year, when the Lakers showcased Divac in the triangle, his passing from the high post made it hum, so having him back is not the worst idea. He may also be trade bait. Eric Snow: While we’re talking stopgaps, this is a name that has been bandied about. He is a tall (6-3) point who can be a solid defender and passes well (career 9.1 assists per 48 minutes), but is not a great long-range shooter (career 21.7% from three point range) and doesn’t get to the line a lot. Also, he is a 10-year veteran whose numbers dipped last year — was that a result of situation or age? Sasha Vujacic: He’s tall and an interchangeable part that can play back up for either guard position and his passing will fit the triangle. I’d love to see him get his chance, starting at about 15-20 minutes a game, but he’s got to learn to defend (that means getting stronger, too). If he is a defensive liability his minutes will fade, play well and they likely go up. Sasha, if you’re reading this, stop right now, go eat a steak and then head to the gym. Deron Williams: My guess is the point guard out of Illinois is the point guard Phil most wants out of the draft, but it’s only going to happen if the Lakers trade up. He’s 6-3, 200, can shoot and runs a team well, and played well in the NCAA Tournament. There are questions about his quickness, and with that ability to defend, but he did test well in Chicago, being as quick as Felton (according to ESPN). Raymond Felton: I think the Tar Heel point guard going to have a good NBA career, I love his quickness and athleticism, but that career will not be as a Laker. 6-0 is not big enough for Phil. Chucky Atkins: I think Phil might be willing to trade him for a rack of basketballs. I know I am. Earl Watson: Fast, fun, fan-friendly point guard. Also very short. Not going to happen in Phil’s world. Luke Walton: This may be an interesting dilemma. Phil obviously loves Walton’s hoops IQ and the way he fit in the triangle — when was the last time Jackson have that much playing time to a rookie? But, Walton is a free agent at a position the Lakers are already overloaded in. Also, Walton’s defense has never been spectacular, solid but nothing special. If they resign him he’s going to get a fair amount of playing time which means other guys (Devean George, Jumaine Jones, Slava) may be out the door in trades, or at least spend a lot more time in the Paul Shirley role (without the blog). Brian Cook: Maybe the best example of a dancer and not a plow horse, a 6-9 power forward who took 47.2% of his shots from beyond the three point arc. Now defense and rebounding matter most, so expect his minutes to drop. He’s also trade bait. Sean May: While some mock drafts have the Lakers looking at May, he is a low-post only guy who isn’t going to block a lot of shots in the NBA. I think he can have a decent NBA career, but doesn’t fit the mold of what (I think) Jackson wants to build.

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

2005-06-15T16:46:00.000-07:00

Since Phil was hired everyone and their cousin has thrown in their two cents (my pennies included). Here are some of my favorites comments (some with of my opinions thrown in because I couldn’t resist) plus an assortment of other links and thoughts. I have more change to throw in by the way on what Phil means, particularly about roster moves, and that begins with a post tomorrow (I’m working on it, but “the man” keeps expecting me to work for him, too). • First, take a break from all the Phil talk: Dr. J penned an article on his finals match up with the Lakers 25 years ago, when Magic burst into the national consciousness. This is a must read. I can’t thank Dan enough for sending me the link (the Sports Guy has it up too).

The series began pretty evenly, with my personal highlight being in the fourth quarter of Game Four, with us trailing 2-1 in the series. In what's now become a pretty well-documented move, I drove baseline, elevated, reached back behind the backboard with the ball and emerged on the opposite side of the basket to convert the layup. We ended up with a 105-102 win to tie the series, and our confidence was riding high.

• I’ve come to expect stuff I love from Eric Neel, and since he’s a Laker fan he didn’t disappoint with his ESPN.com Page 2 piece on Phil. • Tim Brown’s piece in the LA Times reminded me why I miss having him on the Laker beat (with all due respect to Brenham, who has been solid). Brown’s years with the team and good writing gave his coverage depth others lacked. • Ripping ESPN’s Chad Ford is like beating on a piñata without candy inside — it’s easy and not very rewarding. That said, I couldn’t resist when his first piece on the Phil hiring, written while in Italy, is speculation on when the Lakers will trade Kobe. I’d say he wins the Chad Ford Award for Irresponsible Sports Reporting — publishing the speculation of scouts on another continent — but I’ve already named the award after him.

I doubt Kobe gets moved this summer. Buss has invested too much in Kobe to dump him this early. But with Jackson back in the saddle in L.A., the chances that Kobe stays in L.A. long term don't look very good.

• Lamar Odom has great calves. • Did you know the NBA Finals are still going on despite Phil’s hiring? Duncan was atrocious in game three, a -24 on the night (the Spurs best runs came with him on the bench), while the Pistons backcourt of Billups and Hamilton stepped up. Here’s the question for game four — was Duncan just off or did the Pistons get to him? I’ll put my money on Duncan and the Spurs bouncing back, but it should be interesting. I’m actually enjoying this series, believe it or not. • I find this site oddly fascinating. People send in anonymous postcards of their most personal secrets.

The Chicago Bulls, circa 1993-94

2005-06-15T11:13:00.000-07:00

The knock on Phil Jackson has long been that he walked in to situations tailor made for championships — all he had to do was roll out the balls and stay out of the way. If you really think it’s that easy you should ask Del Harris about it, but that’s another discussion for another day. However, there is one season when Jackson coached a team that didn’t have overwhelmingly dominant talent — the 93-94 Bulls. Michael Jordan was off flailing at curveballs and the torch had been passed to Scottie Pippen and the rest of the “Jordanairs.” A look at that team will tell us about what Jackson may be able to do with a Laker roster that has talent but some serious deficits that will keep them from games in mid-June until they are fixed. The 93-94 Bulls team finished 55-27, but I think it’s safe to say that team was a little lucky — their Pythagorean win/loss (based on points scored and allowed) was 50-32. Still the team finished that year with the seventh best RPI in the league (for comparison, this past year’s Lakers were 20th). As you would expect without Jordan, the Bulls offense struggled — they averaged 103 points per 100 possessions, the 15th most efficient team in the league (the league average was 103.3). That is a good step behind last year’s Lakers, who had a number of good scoring options and averaged 104.6 per 100 possessions, seventh in the league. I think Phil Jackson has to look at pieces such as Kobe and Lamar and know he has a team that can score plenty. But the other side of the ball is a different story. That 93-94 Bulls team still played defense — they gave up 100.2 points per 100, the sixth best defensive team in the league despite losing one of the games all time great one-on-one defenders. Last year’s Lakers gave up 108 points per 100, 29th in the league (the average was 103.1). You can make an argument that player-for-player last year’s Laker team was the more talented of these two, but the Bulls had the more tenacious defenders (and a better system than whatever that was the Lakers were doing last year). The roster moves you see from the Lakers this off-season will be to bring in defenders — long guys like you see changing shots in the NBA Finals right now. The Bulls focal point player was the long Scottie Pippen, who had a 23.1 PER that season — very close to the 23.3 PER Kobe had this past season (Scottie had a better shooting percentage, 51.5% to 48.2% [eFG%] but Kobe got to the line more and had more points per shot attempt, 1.13 to 1.09). Pippen was a good defender — that season he was second in the league averaging 2.9 steals per game. After Scottie, the next man on the Bulls totem pole was Horace Grant — who averaged not only 21.7 points per 48 minutes (15.1 per game) but also pulled down 17.5% of the rebounds on the floor. Rebounds is one area this Bulls team was far better than the Lakers — Pippen was grabbing 13.3% of he rebounds in his extensive minutes, Scott Williamson was coming off the bench an grabbing 16.6% of the available rebounds in his 16 minutes a game. The best Laker last season was Lamar Odom at 15.9, followed by Chris Mihm at 15.1 — the team lacked a dominant glass cleaner. Other Bulls players of note were a rookie Toni Kukoc, who was averaging 21.6 points per 48 minutes and had a PER of 15.4, Steve Kerr was still hanging out at the three point line and there was BJ Armstrong, who poured in 14.8 points per game (but wasn’t terribly efficient in doing so). That Bulls team made the playoffs and in the first round swept past the franchise’s favorite patsies — Cleveland. Then in the next round it was a seven-game battle with Pat Riley’s knock-down, alley-fight New York Knicks (who went on to the finals that year). By the way, ask a Bulls fan and they'll tell you the Knicks didn't beat them, Hugh Hollins did with his phantom call on Hubert Davis' three late in game five. The Eastern Conference of those Bulls was not as deep as the West the Lakers will have to face next year, and 55 wins is a mighty long way up. But better defense and some roster moves to bring in rebounders and defenders will move the Lakers back toward the league’s elite. It may take a few years, but a direction to build a team in the mold of the early 90s Bulls (with Kobe in the Jordan role) is what I think we’ll see. (I could not have done this without the amazing basketball-reference.com site put together by Justin K. Thanks for everything you do.)

Not A Savior, But A Start

2005-06-14T11:35:00.000-07:00

Apparently, Phil Jackson is not a Thomas Wolfe fan. That’s okay, he can come home and myself and most Laker fans will welcome him (I’m celebrating this with a Duff beer tonight, maybe two). This is a great first step. In the disastrous aftermath of this rudderless past season I felt (and wrote) that charting an organizational direction had to be THE top priority — and Phil Jackson will provide that. He is someone who knows what he wants and will point the Lakers that way, and while there can be questions about the direction at least this organization has one again. However, unless he has learned to walk on water — or turn Chucky Atkins into a defender — he will need some time and help. Let’s start with the positives. I wrote about this before, Phil will bring defensive discipline to a team that desperately needed it last year. To briefly recap, the last time Phil came to Los Angeles he took at team that the year before was 24th in the league in defensive efficiency and made it the best in the league. He also made a major turnaround in Chicago when he took over there. If the Lakers had just an average defense last year they would have made the playoffs (then likely lost in the first round, but made the playoffs). Jackson will make the defense respectable. The other thing is the triangle offense — remember Tex Winter going on the radio at the start of last season saying this Laker squad was in many ways better suited to run the triangle than the championship teams? This is not a more talented team, but the triangle may spread the ball around better and leave Kobe shooting less than 17% of his shots with less than 3 seconds on the shot clock, like he did last year. Remember, the triangle is a spread the floor, take what the defense gives you type of offense, if run correctly the Lakers will do well in it. Despite all that, what Phil cannot do is make this team an instant contender. This team’s weaknesses do not go away with a new coach. We still cannot defend the point and we still don’t have a consistent shot blocking presence inside to punish the guards who do penetrate. We still need somebody who can clean the glass and defend the four. The draft alone will not solve these problems. Now, though, the real work to fill those holes can begin. We have a direction. And that is something worth celebrating.

He's Baaaack

2005-06-14T10:53:00.000-07:00

It's official, Phil Jackson will be announced as the Laker coach this afternoon at a 2 pm press conference at Staples Center.

Fast Break

2005-06-13T11:15:00.000-07:00

I’m just telling this story here because I can, if you want to read some basketball thoughts move on down to the bullet points below. Yesterday my wife and I hosted a small first birthday party for my daughter, just our families and a few of my daughter’s baby friends (or, more accurately, my wife’s mommy friends) having a picnic in a local park. Things are going great — babies are playing with toys (and not screaming much), adults are having conversations about things other than babies and all the Togo’s I thought I’d have to take home is being eaten. About 15 yards from us are another couple families picnicking in the park, and their kids (I’d guess second or third graders) are throwing a football around and it’s all very Norman Rockwell. Then one of the kids tries to punt the ball and it goes straight up into a tree — and hits a bee hive. Suddenly it’s like a seen from The Swarm in the park, with all the parents hustling their children away as fast as they can — including us — and me trying to do things like cover the fruit plate and anything else that may attract angry bees. Needless to say, a nice little family party came to a crashing halt. In a few years we’re going to look back on this party and really laugh, especially since nobody got stung. Right now it just seems a little surreal. • Laker coaching search update: Just hum the Jeopardy theme to yourself. • This little NBA Finals stat from Dan Rosenbaum (posted on the APBR boards): In game two, San Antonio outscored Detroit 61-10 on the combination of three pointers and free throws. Then there’s this stat about the soon-to-be Finals MVP: Manu’s eFG% in game two was 100%. Insane. He is abusing Prince. • Bill Plaschke takes a lot of flack in the blogsphere for his sports opinions. He usually deserves it. But I will say that his profiles/human interest stories are some of the best writing in the LA Times. If you haven’t read his piece on Gregg Popovich’s days as the coach at Pomona-Pitzer from Sunday, you need to. It will tell you a lot about the man and his coaching philosophy. • Nobody enjoyed that piece more than my wife, who was a basketball team statistician at Pomona at that time and knew all the people interviewed. • By the way, Pomona-Pitzer has one of the worst mascots in college athletics — the Sagehen. That's an animal that plays dead in the face of danger. • Hoopsanalyst has posted a piece on point guards in the draft that is fantastic. He likes Chris Paul one, followed by Jarrett Jack. As a side note, I want to talk some draft at FB&G in the upcoming days, but I’ve been holding back some because a coach/team direction is more important. I think the Lakers biggest off-season need is at the point, but who would get drafted/picked up there is probably more influenced by the coach than any other position (Phil likes his points tall, so would he want someone like Felton?). To get around this, I’m going to start with big men. When not being chased by bees I started working on something over the weekend that I hope to post tomorrow.

Tick…Tick…Tick…Tick…

2005-06-10T09:34:00.000-07:00

Apparently now we are all waiting for Phil Jackson to come down from Mt. Sinai (or maybe return from Magadha is the better analogy) and tell us what he is going to do. The best news of all is that this is going to happen by early next week, ending this painfully drawn out process (at least from the outside) one way or another. While we wait I had hoped to talk NBA Finals, I was excited to have a chance to get home last night and watch the entire first game. Then something came up at the day job and I was going to miss the fist quarter or so, but I could live with that. Then, while driving home I get a call from my wife saying the in-laws have invited themselves over for dinner. And I get to cook. So could I stop by the store on the way home while I was at it? Outside of plays here and there, I saw nothing. I can say this — the overnight 6.2 television rating the game got was exactly half what the 2000 Lakers vs. Portland Western Conference Finals got. I bet the ABC people are thrilled — NASCAR gets better numbers than that. Instead, here are a couple of links to check out: • Popcorn Machine has the game flow up. It shows Ben Wallace struggled to stop Duncan or anyone else while the big three for the Spurs all had good nights. Add to that the Spurs got a few quality minutes out of Big Dog off the bench. Some people will say that a bench is less important in the playoffs because the starters play more minutes, but big play off the bench was a key last night keeping those starters fresh while not losing production. • Hoopsanalyst has some good playoff thoughts up, plus talks contract negotiations and Tim Duncan’s place in history.

Fast Break

2005-06-09T10:27:00.000-07:00

Some day of Game One thoughts: • I have no idea what Phil Jackson is going to say tonight in his pre-game interview on ABC — he may say he’s taking the Lakers job, may say he wants to sit out a year, may dodge the question entirely, may say he wants to marry Jeannie. Well, probably not that last one. My guess is not he’s not going to say much of anything. If he does announce he took the job in that interview, it would be a big slap in the face of the Los Angeles media. To make the announcement in a national broadcast and not give the scoop to the local publications and stations would fly in the face of how things are traditionally done. That said, the Laker organization has had an obvious frustration with the Los Angeles media this past year — particularly area columnists who essentially took the Shaq side of the story in the end of the Laker dynasty. If Phil does announce on ABC, it will show just how pissed the organization is. • For those that want to know, here’s a quick rumor roundup: Laker team sources saying Phil takes the job today; Kobe’s people saying that is not the case, he is staying out for a year and Brian Shaw will be the next Laker coach. Buss had ego clashes with Phil and that’s an issue. Jeannie is now saying plans won't be announced. Everyone’s got an agenda, so take it all for what it’s worth. • If you want to see a perfect example of why the Laker organization is frustrated with the local media, check out JA Adande’s poorly thought out column in the LA Times from the end of the Heat/Pistons series. It’s not just a “the Lakers never should have traded Shaq” mentality (an opinion that is at least defensible) but comments like this:

It's interesting that owner Jerry Buss helped explain the Lakers' 34-48 season by lamenting injuries to Vlade Divac, Devean George and Lamar Odom but never considered the injuries to Karl Malone and even Horace Grant last year when deciding to break up the old team.

There are a couple of things wrong he, but here’s the big one — by the end of last season this team was going to break up whether Buss wanted it to or not. Either Shaq was going to go via trade or Kobe via free agency. They were not going to play together again. Buss’ only choice was which player to keep, not whether or not to break up the team. • While I’m venting, let me mention problem with Adande’s column and with the coverage of the end of the Shaq/Kobe era in general — what took that team down was less their egos and more the supporting pegs around them being knocked out. But that’s never discussed. Look at the other key members of the lineup from the first Laker title team: Glenn Rice, Ron Harper, Rick Fox, Robert Horry, Brian Shaw, Derek Fisher. As the team moved through the next five seasons the surrounding cast got much older and poor decisions were made by management — resigning Devean George and Slava to overpriced deals, drafting Kareem Rush instead of Tayshon Prince, expecting Horry and Fox to play bigger roles as their bodies aged, just to name a few. How did management address that problem — bring in two well-aged future Hall of Famers and make one more run at it. Both showed their age — Payton through his play and Malone through injuries — and so the team falls short because Kobe and Shaq can’t do it all on their own. If you’d seen smart moves — like you’ve seen in San Antonio — Kobe and Shaq may have stayed together because they were winning titles. We’ll never know because they weren’t given the chance. But read the local papers or listen to the radio and it’s Kobe’s fault. Or Shaq’s. Whatever. • Oh, about that game tonight. I think the most interesting part will be to see who is matched up on whom. A quick prediction for the series — look for Brent Barry to have a big one. At times the Spurs are going to shoot over the top of the Pistons defense and Barry is the guy who can do that best.

Smoke Signals

2005-06-07T20:41:00.000-07:00

There is no white smoke coming out of Staples Center, but according to the latest article from Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld we'll know in the next couple of days about Phil. Since Pincus wrote that article he said on a message board he has gotten additional information to say Phil will make an announcement on ESPN Thursday. After all the waiting I'd like a sign that is a little more certain, maybe some white smoke, but my guess is if you turn over the Magic 8 Ball it says "All Signs Are Good." Update: Reports early Wednesday night are that Phil will go on ESPN or ABC right before Game 1 tomorrow for an interview to "announce his intentions." Predicting what Phil will do is risky business, but I'll stick with my Magic 8 Ball guess.

Fast Break

2005-06-07T10:23:00.000-07:00

What, you expected some kind of coaching announcement? Here are some general thoughts while the Laker front office treads water. • That was a really entertaining game 7 between the Heat and Pistons — maybe not the up-and-down play that David Stern wants (and Phoenix delivers) but filled with drama. For my money it was the best game of the playoffs so far, and may be the best overall this post season when said and done. • Here’s an interesting note from that game from PopcornMachine.net and its game flow — the Piston with the best +/- in that game was Eldon Campbell (+7), the Heat player with the worst +/- was Zo (-11). No Piston was in the red for the entire game — while their bench has been maligned it was a key difference in that game. The Pistons are still pretty deep with good players. • Tim Duncan sat watching that game and I bet all he was thinking was, “Man, my ankle feels so much better after a week off.” • Let thee mainstream media howling begin — “This series is going to be unwatchable with two defensive-minded teams” — but the best team from each conference made it to the last dance. • I’ll still take the Spurs, let’s say in six. • If the Lakers really are close to announcing Phil Jackson as coach, I think they would have loved to have done it while Shaq was playing in the NBA Finals, just to pull the spotlight off him and make him answer Laker questions. • Here’s the new information out there on the Laker coaching situation: • No, that last blurb was not a typo. • More interesting stuff on the “Nash is MVP?” debate up at Hoopsanalyst.

Who Are They Rooting For?

2005-06-06T11:03:00.000-07:00

Big game seven tonight, with plenty of story lines and sub plots. To help paint the big picture, here’s a rundown of who the interested parties are rooting for: ABC Television executives: “Please give us Shaq and Wade. Please. We’re down on our hands and knees here.” David Stern: “I want whatever ABC wants.” The San Antonio Spurs: They’ve said all the right things — that they don’t care who they face — and in one aspect they are right because the Spurs should beat either of those teams. But you know they care. I think the Spurs would prefer the banged-up Heat, mostly for match up reasons. During the regular season the only teams that sort of gave the Spurs problems were teams that 1) played good shooting defense (the Heat and Pistons were almost identical here) or 2) shot well themselves (the Heat had the second best eFG% in the NBA). (As a side note here, what is true of the Spurs is basically all teams, shooting well and keeping your opponent from doing well is obviously Hoops 101 on winning, so teams don't do as well against teams that do those things.) Based on that, at first glance you might think the Heat would be a tougher series, but when you look at potential player matchups I think it’s easier to cover the Heat right now. Wade is the biggest problem, but he is slowed by the rib injury and Bowen will make him work for his points, and Parker provides more speed to create problems up top. Then there’s Shaq — the Spurs have 18 fouls to give with Tim Duncan (who will cover the four mostly but can change out), Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic, not to mention double team fouls from Horry and others. Shaq is a force inside, but one that can be slowed down now (unlike, for example, in 2000). For the Heat, the two best +/- players in the playoffs have been the two Joneses, but the Spurs fast-rotating team defense will take away some of their easy looks. On the other hand, the Pistons may not have a dominant force on offense but they do have a spread of options. Bowen can cover Rip Hamilton, Paker will haunt Billups, Duncan on Rasheed Wallace is another key. But then who stops Tayshaun Prince? The Pistons have more options and Larry Brown will put them in better situations. Tonight’s referees: Does anyone know what they’re thinking in this series? Jerry Buss: If you were on vacation in Europe, likely with a smoking-hot 20-something woman, would you care who won this game? He needs to care more about who is coaching his team, anyway. Me: I’m just rooting for a good game. These playoffs need one.

Fast Break

2005-06-03T14:09:00.000-07:00

For the record — I did not shoot Biggie Smalls, the LAPD was just trying to frame me. Now, on to some basketball thoughts. • Let me start out bragging, I think I am the Michael Jordan Mattel Classic Basketball. Sure, there are far more modern hoops video games complete with Amare Stoudemire’s 360 dunks of flaming basketballs, but I’ve been hooked on the Mattel game since I was in elementary school — where my friend John and I played all the way through recess ever day. I hadn’t seen the game in years but got a re-release as a gift from my brother last Christmas and I’m hooked again. I can make the little red LED light drive the lane like Kobe with the clock running down — I am unstoppable. There needs to be a world championship for this. • According to Larry Stewart at the LA Times, Joel Meyers is the new TV voice for Lakers. Hopefully he’ll have a more interesting season to call than the ousted Paul Sunderland did last year. • Whether you're optimistic about the Lakers this summer or pessimistic, Eric Pincus has a piece up at Hoopsworld that backs you up. This is the usual gret work from Eric, it will get you up to date on all the rumors out there. • Two potential Laker draft picks, international forwards Fran Vasquez and Tiago Splitter faced each other in a recent game and Draft City has the play-by-play. Not a lot there but what is basically confirms the existing rumors — Vasquez can come in now and play (with good defense and rebounding) but Splitter has more potential. Other reports out of the European playoffs rave about Vasquez. More and more mock drafts have Vasquez gone before the Lakers draft at 10. • Including the Hoopsworld piece above a couple of stories now have the Lakers looking to trade up in the draft. While a number of scenarios are out there, the only one that makes sense to me is trading Caron Butler and the 10 to New Orleans for the 4th overall pick. I don’t love it but if they can get Chris Paul the Lakers will have the point guard of their future, so it may be worth it (it’s going to be hard to resign Butler at the end of the year and if he’s gone we need to get something for him, and the Hornets need a three). This trade wouldn’t happen until draft day — if Bogut or Williams fall to them New Orleans isn’t giving up that pick. • Shaq, good on ya. • Looks like expected #1 pick Andrew Bogut and Kobe won’t be having a couple beers together soon:

Bogut was asked for specifics of the American attitude toward the game, what he does not like. Guess who's name came up? "There's no one I really hate, but Kobe [Bryant] had a demeanor of being very cocky," he said. "What happened with Shaq. . . . If I had a chance to play with Shaq or Tim, if they told me to buy them groceries, I don't care, I buy them groceries. It's a gift to play with somebody like that. Kobe is probably one of the guys that, everybody knows it, he's got that cocky arrogance to him, everything has to surround around him the whole time.

Remembering George Mikan

2005-06-02T12:44:00.000-07:00

Every time I’ve looked up into the rafters at Staples Center (and before that at the Forum) and seen the retired jerseys, I’ve been amazed at the legendary NBA talent that has played for the Lakers, many I’ve been fortunate to see play — Wilt, West, Baylor, Magic, Kareem, Goodrich, Worthy. But there’s always been one jersey missing — George Mikan’s 99. He led the Lakers to five titles, was the game’s first superstar and was a member of the NBA’s 50 greatest players of all time list. He was voted at the time as the best basketball player of the first half of last century. Now, that number will need to be retired posthumously as he passed away Wednesday, finally succumbing to a long-term battle with diabetes. Mikan played eight of his nine seasons with the Minneapolis Lakers, retiring before the team ever moved to the sunshine (which is why Jerry Buss has never let his number be retired by the team, he was never a Los Angeles Laker). Yet Mikan was the first in the tradition of dominant big man to don a Laker uniform. Back before World War II, the conventional wisdom was basketball was a sport best left to the small and quick. Then came the 6-10 Mikan, who was as athletic and coordinated as men a foot shorter, and he was intense. He could shoot over anyone in the league averaged 23.1 points per game in his career at a time when the average team scored in the mid 80s. In 1951 he averaged 28.3 PPG — 34% of the teams scoring. While he was at it he averaged 13.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists for his career. If you want to used the advanced stats (and you only can for the last few years of his career due to what stats were kept), in 1951-52 he had a PER of 26.6, followed by a 28.5 the next year and a 29 the year after that (for comparison, Neil Johnston was second in the NBA that last year with a PER of 25.8 — more than three points behind. That 29 is better than any NBA player had this past year, Garnett led the way with 28.8.). But to tie Mikan just to his stats would be to miss the big picture — like all the greats he changed the game. The reason there is a goaltending rule is George Mikan. The NBA widened the foul lane so he couldn't hang out so close to the basket. Some say he invented the hook shot, and while that may be in question he was the first to use it regularly and effectively. He was the games first big star and drew countless new fans to the game — when his Lakers came to play the Knicks at Madison Square Garden the marquee read “George Mikan vs. Knicks” (thanks to Gatinho for reminding me of that one). He played a hard-nosed style in a hard-nosed era and had 10 broken bones in his nine-year career, but that never slowed him down or the rush of people who came to see him play. Some people also forget that long after his legendary playing days, Mikan was the first commissioner of the ABA and is the person credited with coming up with the idea of the red, white and blue ball. He was inducted into the first class of the Basketball Hall of Fame back in 1959. He is a legend enshrined everywhere basketball greats are recognized. Except in the rafters at Staples Center.

So Few Things, So Much Time

2005-06-02T11:42:00.000-07:00

Wait, strike that, reverse it. • The latest Carnival of the NBA is up at the usually hockey (but I’ve got some time on my hands) Off-Wing Opinion. This is one of the most extensive carnivals to date with links to what NBA bloggers all over the Web are saying about the playoffs, Larry Brown, just how good Ginobli is and a phrenological study. • This is a must read: One of best discussions of the NBA’s culture clash — between the urban players/fan base and the suburban people and companies expected to shell out money for the expensive seats and luxury boxes — and how that tied into Nash’s MVP win is up over at Knickerblogger.

Undeniably constructed to run fast and jump high (but apparently not shoot straight), the Olympic team’s failure turned what was a simmering cultural conflict into a full-blown cultural crisis over how the game “should” be played.

This kind of work is why Knickerblogger is the gold standard for NBA blogs. • One of the interesting things about the hit counters for this site is they tell me what Google/Yahoo searches people use that bring them here. I haven’t kept the stats but if I had to guess I’d say the all time leader is some version of people trying to find out about Kobe’s shoes — the Air Zoom Huracahe 2K5. Recently Nike took a few people off its sweatshop Zoom LeBron II manufacturing line and had them make 1,000 pairs of Kobe’s shoes and those are available as of today. There are 500 pairs at Los Angeles area shoe stores or you can buy one of the 500 pairs offered online through the above link. It shows you just how far Kobe’s marketing stock has fallen that they are making and selling just 1,000 of these and doing so when he is not playing. • I really am not fond of all the bullet point entries on this site recently, it’s not my preferred style. That said, I’m not going to turn this site into a Phil Jackson Where’s Waldo (who is Phil having lunch with today?) and there has been little to analyze. Starting next week, when reports start coming out of the Chicago pre-draft camp, we’ll really start to do draft thoughts. • This sounds a like a sports talk radio bit, but the on-the-way NBA lockout frustrates me because it’s hard to watch millionaires battle billionaires over how to divide up the money I give them.

Reading for a Tuesday

2005-05-31T10:41:00.000-07:00

You know how it goes, take a day off and come in to extra work at the office. So, rather than write my own stuff today, let me pass along these three links worth checking out: 1) Did you know Don Nelson actually had a solid career playing in the NBA? Neither did I. The people at Hoopsanalyst have taken a closer look at Nelson's career and it's an interesting read. 2) If you haven't been to 82games.com and followed their efforts to improve the statistics kept for defense, the NY Times will sum it up for you. I can't tell you how much I am looking forward to seeing the results of this — this kind of work is desperately needed. 3) Mom's can go to far in trying to be cool to their teenagers. Way too far. (Rob at the baseball blog 6-4-2 found this, but I had to pass it along as well.)

Fast Break

2005-05-30T08:27:00.000-07:00

Some mostly Laker-related thoughts for a three-day weekend. • I’m not sure whether or not to be concerned about the apparent slow movement on coaching and other decisions within the Laker organization. Is the Laker front office a rudderless ship right now (which is what Eric Pincus said he heard), or is this just the pace of things while we wait for the NBA playoffs to end? Is Los Angeles a city of impatient people? (Watching how people drive on any trip on the 405 would lead you to say yes.) I really think it’s a matter of not being used to not being in the playoffs — we’re used to the season ending and the draft being a few weeks away, things moving very quickly. Now there is this long waiting period where little if anything appears to be happening, so we’re nervous. We’re still a month away from the lottery, so it seems too early to panic. • One thing that does worry me, which was part of a comment thread below where others expressed the same concern: Do the Lakers even have a Plan B if Jackson bows out? What’s the plan if after the upcoming summit if Jackson decides to sit out a year? • One decision that has been made, the Lakers are going to host training camp in Hawaii again this fall. I’m already hinting to my wife we should take a fall vacation and I hear Hawaii is nice that time of year… (Is there a time of year Hawaii isn’t nice?) • Apparently the Lakers worked out Charles Villenueva of UConn this past week. He and Chris Taft combine to create the biggest question in this draft — these guys have high lottery talent but played their last season in college with NDBL motivation. I’m leery of taking a guy who didn’t step up in college, especially the NCAA Tournament, and neither of these two did. That said, remember a few years ago Amare Stoudemire dropped to the ninth pick because people were concerned about his motivation coming out of high school. Sometimes the light bulb goes on. Do you draft the guy who could be very good but has motivation issues, or the guy who gets the most out of his talent but doesn’t have the same skills? • One ESPN mock draft has the Lakers taking Sean May at 10, which fits right in with the above question. I’ll be trying to do some more detailed draft stuff upcoming, but May worries me. He’s only 6-8 and not a shot blocker — he’ll be a fine pro but I see him as a career sixth/seventh/eighth man whose great college game never really translated to the NBA — not what the Lakers need. • The Lakers also are supposed to have worked out Raymond Felton. • If you can’t wait for some draft talk, there’s a great look at potential draft picks in the front court over at Knickerblogger. • Apparently Seattle point guard Antonio Daniels wants the full MLE and to start (according to the NY Post). I think Daniels, a 6-4 point, would be a great fit in the triangle (if that’s what the Lakers run next year). The Lakers should consider that price. He’ll get that somewhere, maybe Utah or Cleveland. • The Champions League Final where Liverpool beat AC Milan was one of the most entertaining matches I have ever seen. • I really hope you are not buying your Laker tickets on eBay.

Would You Give Shaq An Extension?

2005-05-27T10:31:00.000-07:00

I recently recieved an interesting email from Ryan, a thoughtful fan of Forum Blue who has written me before, and he asked an interesting question: Should Miami really shell out $25 -$30 million a year for another three years of Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq has one more year left on his deal that will pay him $30 million next year, but he wants another three after that, taking him up to age 36. Should Miami spend that money with a rising star like Dwyane Wade carrying so much of the load (and getting his own max deal before Shaq’s extension would be up)? What follows is an edited and slightly better thought out version of my response. I thought I’d repost it here because this is an interesting discussion. I will say this about Shaq’s current contract — he did it at the right time. His got more money and his pay increased faster because it was done under the old CBA eight years ago, and because teams can resign their own players for more than they make now. He can still make $30 mil per year in a new deal. I think you're right Shaq's skills and physical condition are deteriorating, but he is still a force on the court. You pointed out his per-game numbers are down from his peak years with the Lakers and rebounded only slightly this year. That’s mostly due to his minutes being down this season, something I think you’ll see drop faster as he starts rolling on the downside of the age curve. That said, his advanced statistical numbers were solid — his points per shot attempt were right at his career average of 1.17, his fG% was 60.1% and his rebound rate was a still good 17.7%. Even an older slower Shaq is unlike any other player in the league. The question is, is this Shaq worth what you are paying? I think it depends on the perspective of the owner doing the paying. From the Lakers perspective and in pure basketball terms, I think they sold high and got out at the right time Shaq was motivated and bounced back this year, although when you look at his season numbers this was still not the Shaq of 1999-2002. But that motivation will fade. You are right, paying Shaq $30 million or whatever will limit the players any team can put around Shaq to build for the future. The Lakers made their move with the future in mind, picturing being a contender again in 2007-08 or so when Shaq had faded (whether or not they can successfully execute that plan is another question entirely). But I don’t think the Heat are thinking that far down the road, and if I were Micky Arison, I wouldn’t be. First, they think they can win a title this year or in the following two and they are going for it. If you have a championship window you need to go for it (the question that plauges Laker fans was whether their window with this team had closed, I think it had but that is another debate). More importantly for Arison, I’d resign Shaq for $30 million because Shaq sells tickets. Mark Heisler pointed out in the LA Times last week that Miami used to block out parts of the arena with curtains because large areas went unsold — now they sell out every night. Heat merchandise outsells every other team in the NBA now. The owner is making a lot more money, the value of the franchise is going up, and $30 mil to Shaq is well worth the return to him. Arison is coming from a very different perspective than Buss, who has a few years to rebuild before ticket sales really fall and the team starts to take a serious financial hit (and they will never be as bad as the Heat were). That means Buss can worry more about the on-the-court issues than the financial ones. The bottom line, I think O'Neal will get overpaid for what he produces on the court, but for what he makes the Heat (or any second-tier team) off the court I would do it.

What Can You Get For A 10 These Days?

2005-05-24T18:10:00.000-07:00

There were no frozen envelopes or big surprises (unless you're a Bucks fan) — the Lakers will be drafting 10th this year. This is the Lakers’ first time in the lottery in 11 years and we fans are not quite sure what to expect, although some have visions of getting a starting point guard or a big man who will help anchor the franchise and fill most of Shaq’s shoes. Not likely — history shows that at 10 you get a good backup who could develop into a starter in a few years. However, every once in a while you can get lucky. To help get an idea of what we can expect, here are the last decade’s worth of number 10 picks. The number after them in parenthases is their first season Win Shares — the sabermetric baseball stat assigning percentage of wins to a player converted to basketball. (Basketball-Reference did the calculations so here is their description: Win Shares are assigned to players based on their offense, defense, and playing time. A Win Share is worth one-third of a team win. If a team wins 60 games, there are 180 Win Shares to distribute among the players.) 2004 Luke Jackson, Cleveland (0) 2003 Jarvis Hayes, Washington (4) 2002 Caron Butler, Miami (11) 2001 Joe Johnson, Boston (9) 2000 Kenyon Dooling, Clippers (4) 1999 Jason Terry, Atlanta (6) 1998 Paul Pierce, Boston (11) (lockout season) 1997 Danny Fortson, Milwaulke (4) 1996 Eric Dampier, Indiana, (4) 1995 Kurt Thomas, Miami, (10) Overall, you’re looking at a pretty solid group of players. There is one real franchise player, Paul Pierce, but mostly a group of guys you wouldn’t mind having as starters (Butler, Johnson, Fortson, Terry, Thomas). With Luke Jackson it’s a little early to tell — he had back surgery in January, not a good long term sign but he can bounce back. For those looking for immediate starters, notice few of those players contributed a lot that first year. The average win share for these players their first year was 6.3 (take out the injured Jackson and it is 7). For some comparison, that’s basically what the Lakers got out of Brian Cook this season. The best players in their first years, Butler and Pierce, had 11 win shares, which is about what the Lakers got out of Jumaine Jones and Chris Mihm this past season. For a more detailed description of what you can expect from each position in the draft, the Stat Pimp did a detailed analysis a couple of years back that says basically the same thing, but he uses wins over replacement as his measure (and a lot more math, because he's much, much better at that than I am). Yes, if you look below these 10th overall players in each draft you can find someone in retrospect you would rather have taken (except in the case of Pierce). That may be even tougher in this draft, which has no standouts and where the lottery is, in the words of John Hollinger today, “Pervis Ellison waiting to happen.” I’d like to think the Laker scouting is up to the challenge but even if they get a very good player it is likely there will be someone good passed over. The real question is can the Lakers get someone of quality who will be around for a while? The Lakers should be able to get a good player at 10, either a point guard or a big who can come off the bench this next season and maybe by their third year be a productive starter. Last time the Lakers drafted this high they got Eddie Jones, and I think that’s about what we should get (quality wise). But if you’re expecting an instant starter or perfect piece to fit with Kobe, you’re going to be more disapointed than if you spent money to see Monster In Law.

Fast Break

2005-05-23T10:55:00.000-07:00

Just a few random thoughts on a Monday. • Phoenix may have run into the one team they can’t just outscore. Knickerblogger pointed this out already, but the game was played at Phoenix’s tempo (98 possessions, right at their playoff and season average) and they shot 52.7% (eFG%). The problem is Phoenix let the Spurs shoot 57.5%. Steve Nash is going to have to play some defense because Parker can score more than just 29, Phoenix has to limit open three-point looks for Barry and Horry and others, and Stoudemire is going to have to do more than come from the weak side looking for a block. The problem is that is contrary to what they have done the majority of the season. Phoenix needs Joe Johnson back and Shawn Marion can shoot better than that, but at some point this series will be decided by their defense. Or lack thereof. • It should be interesting to see what defensive style the Pistons use on the Heat tonight. Does Larry Brown return to the one-on-one with Shaq, stop Wade/Kobe system he used against the Lakers last year? If that happens, can the Heat role and bench players respond in a way the Laker players could not last year? • Several interesting breakdowns of this series over at the very good Crazy From the Heat, including a statistical breakdown that gives the series to the Heat in seven. • I get all the love for Dwyane Wade, but now people are saying "he's the teammate Shaq's ever had, the best number two guy." Wade's been great in the playoffs, but so far he's looked good against Nets and the Wizards. Let's have a little perspective here. Let's see how Wade holds up against the Pistons and, if they can advance, the Spurs. Kobe has already won big series such as those -- several times. • I am hooked on the History Channel’s Breaking Vegas series. These are one-hour shows about people who come up with inventive ways to cheat and beat Las Vegas casinos — like the MIT teams that were popularized in Bringing Down the House. The best part is these people always follow the Scarface story arc, hitting it big then self-destructing spectacularly. • The draft lottery is tomorrow night with Jeannie Buss rolling the dice for the Lakers — come on baby, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes.

The Final Four

2005-05-21T23:46:00.000-07:00

Since about mid-season I think we all knew, and in some way hoped, it would come down to this. There were four teams that were serious contenders for the NBA crown and for a change two were in the West and two were in the East. Now we see who is the best. Here are a few thoughts on the upcoming series (if you just want Laker info scroll down to the second part of this post). Phoenix and San Antonio. What I find interesting about this match up is these two powerhouses had weaknesses exposed in the last round. San Antonio’s vaunted defense struggled when the Sonics played pick-and-roll well away from the basket, and they will get a steady diet of that from the Suns. Phoenix’s lack of depth was exposed (though not thoroughly exploited by Dallas) as was the fact you can shut down Stoudemire for a while and the Suns play inconsistent interior defense. Tony Parker's offensive numbers are pretty average over the course of the entire playoffs (a PER of just 14.63), he needs to step up and make Nash work at both ends. Coaching adjustments will be key in this series, but I think Popovich has more arrows in his quiver in terms of depth. Give me the Spurs in seven. Detroit and Miami. Detroit’s lack of depth and inconsistent scoring got them in trouble with Indiana, and Miami is a much better team. The Heat have held opponents to 43.5% (eFG%) in the playoffs, the best of any team in the post season, so they may be able to hold the Pistons way down. In fact, the Heat have looked like a juggernaut, but they have yet to play a team that matches up well with them — and Detroit does. Shaq and Zo have turned the ball over a fair amount in the playoffs (both averaging four turnovers per 40 minutes), and Detroit can put a lot more pressure on them. Wade struggled in the regular season against the Pistons, so Shaq will have to step up and I’m not sure he’s physically capable of that. The Pistons have been monsters on the offensive glass in the playoffs (grabbing 30.5% of their missed shots) so Miami needs to focus there. Shaq is the key to the series, and I think he’s got three good games in him at best, so give me the Pistons in seven. --------------------------------- Not much new on the Laker front, save for Tuesday night’s Draft Lottery. The Lakers have a 1.4% chance of landing the top spot, a 4.7% chance of landing in the top three. So, expect us to be drafting 10th. Eric Pincus has a new piece up at Hoopsworld with a few tidbits but nothing big to report. For a good breakdown of some of the guards in the upcoming draft, check out Knickerblogger’s breakdown. By the way, it’s early but if the Lakers do end up with the 10 pick, I’d lean toward Raymond Felton the point guard or Fran Vasquez the power forward. But individual workouts are just starting, so that could change.

Preakness Picks

2005-05-21T10:27:00.000-07:00

Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby but is getting no respect from the "experts. " He's not getting any here either — I think that race set up for him and he got a perfect ride out of Mike Smith, but that's not going to happen this time around. This is a speed-favoring track and I'll put my money elsewhere. (By the way, I wanted to get these picks up earlier but THE MAN is making me tote extra barges and lift extra bales this week.) 1) Afleet Alex. Yes I picked him in the Derby, but I'm not the kind of guy who learns from his mistakes. I still think he's the best of the three year olds. 2) High Fly. This is his type of race, it will set up much better for him. Second race off a layoff, which I like. 3) Closing Argument. The more I watched it, the more I liked his Derby effort (second). He's in the mix here.

Friday Afternoon Humor

2005-05-20T12:37:00.000-07:00

Came across a great one from brushback.com: Shaq Drops Out Of Playoffs To Focus On Insulting Lakers

We Have Seen The Enemy…..

2005-05-19T10:44:00.000-07:00

Apparently the NBA and players union are on their way to a lockout this summer. Even a one-month lockout could be bad news locally as it could water down the Summer Pro League in Long Beach, at least in terms of having a Laker (or Clipper or Warrior or…) team competing. With a new coach coming in, that summer league is something the Lakers really need for putting in the new system. (Update: I heard back from the organizers of the Summer Pro League and they said they would very likely have games with teams put together by agents looking to showcase clients, something that already accounts for a number of teams. However, there would be no teams representing NBA organizations if there is a lockout.) The good thing is the NBA is not the NHL — this is not a broken system where owners are loosing money and television ratings are nonexistent. The financial structure of the NBA works. Maybe not as well as everyone would like, but it works. Which is why I find it odd the negotiations reached the point they did so smoothly. The concessions the owners are asking for is not just something that will line their pockets — the owners want to be protected from themselves and not face the consequences of bad decisions. Let’s start with shortening contract lengths, currently free agents can sign max six-year deals with a new team, seven with their current team. The owners want that cut the three years and four years. Why? Not because the Lakers don’t want to keep Kobe around or Cleveland is worried about giving money to LeBron, but because the owners overspend and give huge deals to Allan Houston and Brian Grant and they want to be able to get out earlier. A better example would be this coming summer and the unrestricted free agent Ray Allen: Despite the fact he is 30 some team would have given him a six-year max deal. Then, four years from now when Allen’s considerable skills have started to seriously erode, they would be on the hook for a couple more years. I say they should be, they should face the consequences of unwise contract decisions. Offer a long-term deal to an old player — or one who had one good year and can’t continue to play on that level — and your team should be punished with the cap hit and contract. Bad management decisions should have consequences. The same is true of the idea of an age limit. What the owners want to do is take the pressure off themselves to scout and draft these young players, because many don’t work out. The owners love LeBron and Dwight Howard, what they don’t want are more Darko Milicics. Again, I say a team that drafts a high school player is taking a chance — usually high risk/high reward — and they should have to live with the consequences of that decision. The owners want to solve the situation by postponing the decision. I’m not sure if there will be a lockout and how long one would last, but the current NBA system works fairly well and should be able to be tweaked rather than have major changes made. And whatever changes are made, management decisions should have long-term consequences for their team.

End of Season Report Card: Center

2005-05-18T10:53:00.000-07:00

This is the last (finally!) of a series of season wrap-up posts for the Lakers (we’ve already done team management, point guard, shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards). Players in this post will be listed this way: Kobe Bryant (23.8/15.1/+2.8). Those numbers are: the player’s PER, his opponents PER for the season at his primary position, and his +/- averaged for 48 minutes. I stole this listing idea from Knickerblogger, and get the stats from his site and 82games.com. While none of these statistics is perfect, together they give a pretty good indication of what a player meant to a team. Laker fans, we can all admit it: As much as we were frustrated with the unmotivated Shaq in Los Angeles his last couple of years here, we knew there was going to be a big drop off once he left. Fat Shaq had a PER of 24.4 his last year in Laker colors, still higher than any Laker this year. That’s why the grades at the center are somewhat based on perception — no one was going to replace Shaq, the question was simply how far the drop off was going to be. Due to injuries, much of the burden fell on the shoulders of Chris Mihm (16.09/16.2/-2.1) and he handled it surprisingly well. Mihm played a career high 24.9 minutes per game and his usage rate (percentage of the offense run through him) went up from last year — usually when that happens a player’s efficiency goes down but Mihm’s went up. That said, with each positive with Mihm it is easy to find an area he still needs to improve. For example, Mihm shot a career best 50.7% (eFG%), and inside of 15 feet shot 58.7%. His points per shot attempt was 1.10, the third best rate on the Lakers (behind only Kobe and Jumaine Jones). That said, he has a glaring weakness shooting — he took 31% of his shots as jumpers from more than 15 feet out and on those he shot 32.8% — he needs to be near the basket or develop a consistent jumper. Mihm’s rebound rate this season was a respectable 15.1 (percent of available rebounds grabbed), second best on the team this year (Odom was the best). He also was the team’s best offensive rebounder, averaging 4.2 per 40 minutes. His rebound rate is down from his career numbers — 17.6 last season and a very good 19.8 the year before — but I think that decline in percentage is due more to scheme and playing time more than anything: This season he started 75 games, far more than any other season, meaning he was playing against better rebounders and talent; he also had no real help down low, with the rather thin and perimeter play of Lamar Odom at the four; the Lakers infatuation with the three-pointer early in the year led to longer rebounds that, while statistically count in his rebound rate, were not real opportunities for him due to longer rebounds. One other concern about Mihm was his Roberto Duran-like “manas de piedra” — he averaged 2.4 turnovers per 40 minutes compared to just 1.1 assists. He dropped a lot of balls inside and needs to work on reducing turnovers inside (turnovers that come from the center position are killers). Mihm showed a lot of potential this year, flashes (particularly at home) where he looked like he can be a solid center for the Lakers for years. Maybe the biggest problem was that he was a starter playing less than 25 minutes per game — minutes that were cut short because of his foul trouble. Mihm averaged 6.1 fouls per 48 minutes this year and it was frustrating to watch him pick them up — there were a lot of fouls on the offensive end going over the back or a loose ball foul; fouls picked up trying to stop point guards driving the lane past questionable perimeter defense; and just fouls picked up in the course of play. Mihm has always been a foul sponge — for his career he averages 6.9 fouls per 48 minutes and in the 2003-04 season it was 7.7. One way to look at this is that Mihm’s unimpressive 6.1 per 48 this year was his best ever — he is getting better. He needs to keep doing that. Based mostly on perception, I’d grade Mihm a B- for the season. His defense needs to get better and the Lakers need to use him better — he needs a strong inside presence along side him to remove some of the burden (opponent centers shot 50% against him). He can be a solid complimentary player, but he cannot hold down the middle himself. The problem is that when Mihm left the floor the level of play really dropped off. Brian Grant (10.19/18.9/-4.6) has played most of his career out of position, a natural power forward forced to be a center — he used to be good enough to overcome that, but not anymore. Grant hurts the offense because he is not a threat to score — he averaged just 7.4 shots per 40 minutes, which meant about three a game. When he did shoot he was efficient, hitting 49.3% (eFG%) and with a points per shot attempt of 1.08, he just didn’t shoot much. Grants rebound rate was 9.0. Think about that for a second — with 100% of the rebounds available and 10 players on the floor, an average rebounder can grab 10, or have a rebound rate of 10.0. Now, it doesn’t work out that way, you don’t expect your point guard to mix it up and pull down boards, but you do expect your big men to do that and pull down a higher percentage. Grant is theoretically one of those big men, but he pulled down just 9 rebounds out of 100 when he was on the floor. Defensively, opponent centers shot 50.2% against Grant. I’ll be generous and give Grant a D. Grant is coming back next year — his $14.4 million a year contract is not going anywhere (he might be able to be packaged for a trade during the 2006-07 season at the trading deadline, with a team looking for a big expiring contract, but I doubt he could be moved before then). The key for the Lakers is to find a role for him that works — 10 minutes a game backing up the four might work. He can’t do much more than that. One of the big off-season decisions for the Lakers will be what to do with Vlade Divac (10.74/20.5/-7.7). While his raw numbers for the season are actually worse than Grant’s, Vlade had a small sample size of just 15 games and playing an average of 8.7 minutes in those games. But, he played more in the Lakers final seven games of the season, working in the triangle (where his passing skills from the post would be a good fit) and in those games he averaged 7.7 assists per 48 minutes, 14.45 points per 48, 11.9 rebounds with 6.2 offensive rebounds per 48. All good numbers. If the new Laker coach is Phil and the triangle is going to stay, Divac could be a good fit as a backup center (if not, Divac may be gone for sure). He is due $5.4 million next year but can be bought out for $2 million. There are two big questions. First is his health — if you are just going to get 13 games out of him he has to be let go, but if he can play an average of 15-18 minutes a game for 70+ games in the backup role, that may be a good deal. The other question is who can you get to replace him — if you buy Divac out then can you get someone as good for $3.4 million to fill in that role? Those are some of the first questions that must be answered when the new coach comes in. There is no doubt the Lakers need a stronger presence inside, particularly defensively. That does not necessarily mean a new center — if a strong four can be brought in, I think you’ll see Mihm’s game take another step forward as he is asked to do less. Mihm is still young and could be a solid center for years to come, which is the wake of Shaq leaving is more than I expected this season.

Earning My Lunch Money

2005-05-16T11:49:00.000-07:00

Bunch of thoughts from a bunch of different things this past weekend. • Let’s get the Phil Jackson stuff out of the way (I’m growing weary of the Buss/Jackson dance the same way I was weary of the Shaq/Kobe “As The Basketball Turns” soap opera). Phil Jackson spoke to the LA Times and said, “the current roster is not appealing at all” and then turned around and said. “There's no doubt this team was much more talented than their record showed.” In a Zen way, however, those contradictory statements are both true. In a radio interview Sunday on TJ Simers program, Buss said the same things he did at his last interview — Phil is at the top of a very short list of coaching candidates. The one new bit of information is that the new coach will not be a current college coach (whew) or a current assistant. That narrows the field for those looking ahead. Buss told a number of media he wanted a decision made by May 15, then Jackson tells the Times he is in no rush to make any kind of decision. It’s all negotiations through the press. Forget May 15, the real deadline is closer to June 15, a couple of weeks before the draft. Sadly, that could mean another month of posturing and negotiations through the media. • On a more interesting note, can we talk about how much fun the NBA playoffs have become? I thought we’d have to wait a round for things to pick up. My new favorite series is Seattle and San Antonio because of the great coaching job by Nate McMillan and his staff (including a guy I look up to) — it’s a gutsy move to go after Tim Duncan’s defense. In game three, the Sonics moved their pick and roll farther away from the basket and when Duncan jumped out the Sonics used their quick guards to drive past him, which led to a lot of easy points in the paint. The Spurs adjusted the next game but the Sonics were one step ahead, having their guards not drive all the way to the hole but rather hit the 12 to 18-foot jumper (a renaissance, at least for a series, of the lost art of the mid-range jumper). On defense, the Sonics have packed it in on Tony Parker and dared him to beat them with his jumper — he shot just 40.5% (eFG%) during the regular season from more than 15 feet out, and in the playoffs that has fallen to 36.7%. Add to that that the Sonics have a host of big bodies to throw inside and bang around and this gets interesting. I’ll still take the Spurs, but the Sonics have been better than I thought the way they limped into the playoffs. • When was the last time you watched a series as entertaining as Dallas and Phoenix? Dan Rosenbaum from 82games.com did a great breakdown of how these two teams got here on Sports Illustrated’s Web site, one of the must reads of the week. • Who do you think was better, the 1992-93 high octane Suns or the 2004-05 run-and-gun Suns? The answers Hoopsanalyst got surprised me. • Heading into this weekend, TNT’s NBA playoff ratings were close to last year’s, however ABC’s are down by a third. My read would be that the real NBA fans are still watching, but the casual fans drawn in the by the Laker dynasty/circus have tuned out. • If you want to get a standard mainstream media member’s perspective on the state of the Lakers, as well as the Dodgers and more, the Times JA Adande has a long interview up with LAist. • Jeannie Buss will be representing the Lakers at the lottery, rumor is. Good choice. She is the best face for the organization — and I don’t just mean her looks.

Carnival of the NBA

2005-05-16T09:23:00.000-07:00

NBA blogs are catching on like, well, blogs, with more and more popping up each week. A number of the best new ones are listed in the new Carnival of the NBA up at Bulls Blog. A lot of great stuff in there and a chance to read what some very clever writers are saying.

If Not Phil, Then .....

2005-05-14T00:34:00.000-07:00

I’m not really comfortable with publishing rumors in this blog, even on a juicy topic such as if Phil Jackson is returning or, if not, trying to discern from the outside who or what the obstacle is. I’m not privy to inside information, which is why I’ve focused this blog on the discernable, things you can get from stats and observation. I post — or more accurately, repost — what I think is the best inside information from people I think do it right, but I’m not comfortable just passing along rumors. Right now the Lakers are at a crossroads — good enough that competitiveness at the least and being a contender at best is within their grasp with some smart steps over a couple of years; but with enough question marks that many more seasons like the one we just saw could easily be fallen into with a one more Rudy T.-like misstep. That’s why my first report card was on team management — they are the ones that need to set a team direction. That starts with hiring a coach. And, if plan #1 falls through and there is no Phil, then who is next? I think we can safely rule out John Wooden, after that everything else is speculation and I’m unsure where the Laker management will look. What follows is a short list of possibilities, with commentary, intended not as rumors but as food for thought. Flip Saunders. We know the Lakers have contacted him. So has everyone else with an opening (except Minnesota). Last season he helped Minnesota finally get over the hump and into the Western Conference finals, but this year he got fired because Sprewell and Cassell got older. He has experience with a superstar and building a team around him in Kevin Garnett. The one warning I have about Saunders — in the breakthrough 03-04 season his team was ranked sixth in the league in defensive efficiency, but the years before that they were 16, 15, 15, and 12. I’m not sold on how defensive minded a coach he is. Larry Brown. Unquestionably a great coach whose teams play defense. Questionable whether he will coach anywhere next year as there appear to be health questions around him. If he does coach, you’re going to have to give up picks to get him out of Detroit, if Brown even wants to get out of Detroit. Not likely to happen. Eric Musselman. Some team is going to get him, and I think some team will be happy with him. At first glance people will look at his past and say he coached two years in Golden State with just a .457 winning percentage and never reached the playoffs. But the three previous years that team’s winning percentage was .231 and the roster he had was unimpressive. No coach did well there, until they got Barron Davis anyway, but he was the best of the bunch. Kurt Rambis. He spent years on the bench coaching along side Phil Jackson, is popular with Laker fans, and returned to the bench this season to help bail the team out (a Herculean task). His last stint as coach is not remembered fondly but the team was 24-13 and reached the second round of the playoffs (where they were swept by San Antonio). That Laker team was second in the league in offensive efficiency but 24th on defense. Tom Izzo/Roy Williams/Jim Calhoun/any college coach. This happens and you’ll be able to find me at Our Lady of the Angels lighting every candle I can find. Michael Cooper. An easy sell to Laker fans, but in a short stint in Denver this season he didn’t show much. That said, outside of the WNBA titles there’s not much to judge him on.

President Jackson?

2005-05-12T09:33:00.000-07:00

According to Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld, everything is set for Phil Jackson to return as head coach of the Lakers except for one detail — his title.

In his "State of the Lakers" press conference last week, Dr. Buss acknowledged Laker General Manager Mitch Kupchak and Assistant General Manager Jimmy Buss as his key advisors. I am told that Jackson does not mind their roles in personnel decisions, but he requires "there to be a clear line of authority" ensuring that he answers directly and solely to Dr. Buss.

Pincus, the guy covering the Lakers with the most reliable inside information, said that Buss has planned to slowly turn over the reins of his franchise to his son Jimmy, making giving Jackson a title of authority over the younger Buss a potential deal killer. It's worth a read, plus Pincus throws in a wise opinion at the end (that matches my first thoughts when reading this). Update: I usually ignore what Peter Vecsey writes in the NY Post because he strikes me as a rumormonger without a filter. Which is what you should expect from the Post. However, his column today backs everything Pincus said but with a more aggressive slant -- Vecsey says the real problem is Jimmy Buss.

The way I hear it, Jim Buss basically has been in charge of the Lakers since they got "swept in five games" by the Pistons in last June's Finals. So much so that he hired Rudy Tomjanovich on his own, without Jeanie's knowledge or expertise (her job is to oversee all contracts) for $30 million over five years.

Again, I'd say it's Vecsey, so take what he said with a full shaker of salt. However, in a message board today Pincus said that Vecsey went farther than he did in his story, but Pincus has a relationship with the Lakers to protect that Vecsey does not, freeing the New Yorker to post more details. Check it out for yourself and decide. The greatest strength of the Laker organization over the years has been wise ownership that hired smart basketball people (Sharman, West) to make decisions rather than do that themselves. Moving away from that model would be very unwise.

End of Season Report Card: Power Forwards

2005-05-11T13:18:00.000-07:00

This is the fifth in a series of season wrap-up posts for the Lakers (we’ve already done team management, point guard, shooting guards and small forwards).Players in this post will be listed this way: Kobe Bryant (23.8/15.1/+2.8). Those numbers are: the player’s PER, his opponents PER for the season at his primary position, and his +/- averaged for 48 minutes. I stole this listing idea from Knickerblogger, and get the stats from his site and 82games.com. While none of these statistics is perfect, together they give a pretty good indication of what a player meant to a team. It’s a question you ask yourself after particularly disappointing movies — was the acting that bad or were the actors miscast and lacking direction? That’s the nagging question left about Lamar Odom (17.65/17.6/+1.9) after this season: Is he not as good as the flashes he shows, or was he just miscast and misdirected in whatever the Laker offense was this year? Odom’s numbers weren’t bad at all, he shot 49.6% eFG% and scored 1.08 points per shot attempt, both numbers that were up from his “breakthrough” year in Miami the year before. On top of that, he averaged 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes with a rebound rate of 15.9% (percentage of available rebounds grabbed while was on the floor), both the highest numbers on the Laker and up from last year. Many Laker observers, myself included, think Odom was better suited to the three than the four, but he played inside well — 52% of Odom’s shots came from within 15 feet and he shot 58% on those. His PER while playing the four this season was 19, while when he played the three it was 16.8. Overall, his numbers were better when at the four, although part of that was due to teammates around him and the situations in which he was asked to play the three. More importantly, Odom could not begin to provide the defensive play the Lakers needed at the four. Opponents shot 48.1% against Odom when he played the four and scored an average of 19.1 points per 48 minutes. Odom’s win shares this year were 12, down from 22 last year (although due to injury Odom only played 64 games this year, that said his win percentage was down 16%). While Odom’s numbers were good, his game never meshed with Kobe’s — both wanted the ball on the perimeter so they could penetrate. Odom had the lowest percentage of the offense run through him in his career (19.7 usage rate, down from 22.6 last year). He never seemed comfortable on offense, deferring to Kobe. That is, until Kobe went out and Odom stepped up his aggressiveness and played well. Overall, I give Odom a C. If a coach can find a way to make Odom and Kobe mesh they could be a powerful combination — and the next coach may have to, as Odom’s contract makes him hard to move. He is due $11.5 million next season and that escalates each year through 2009. Part of the problem the Lakers (and Odom) had at the four is they had no good option behind him. First there was Brian Cook (14.42/15.8/+8.7). More than any other Laker, Cook’s basic numbers can be deceiving — if next season our back up four shot 50.9% (eFG%) and put up a +8.7 (per 48 minutes) I’d be thrilled. And we need to give Cook credit, the Lakers were better with him on the floor than off. The problem was Cook was a power forward in name only, TNT’s Steve Kerr at one point in the season called him the “tallest shooting guard in the league.” Cook was rarely near the basket — 47.2% of his shot attempts were three pointers, 82% of his shots were jump shots outside of 15 feet (and he had to be assisted on 92% of those shots), he drew fouls on just 2.8% of his shots, and his rebound rate was 11.2 (percent of rebounds grabbed while he was on the floor, a very low number for a four). He averaged one blocked shot per 40 minutes played, meaning he was not the defensive intimidator needed inside. Cook’s ability to hit the three point shot made him a favorite of Rudy T. early in the season, but in the triangle he looked lost and his minutes dropped. If the next coach is looking for a four to pull opposing defenders away from the basket, Cook’s the man. Otherwise, he needs to be more of an inside player or be used as the backup small forward (which is a bad idea, he can’t defend the quick threes in the league). The other backup four was Slava Medvedenko (12.12/14.4/+0.7). Due to an injury prior to the start of the season Slava was behind the learning curve in Rudy T.’s system and saw very few minutes early on in the year and played only 423 minutes all season, the fewest since his rookie year. While his minutes were down, his averages per minute shooting numbers were similar to previous years — he averaged 18.7 points per 48 minutes (exact same as the previous season), his eFG% was 45.5% (compared to 44.1%), and his points per shot attempt was 0.98 (0.96 last season). Slava’s rebounding numbers were down, his rebound rate fell to 10.5 from 13.3 last season. Slava’s defense is notoriously poor, but his oPER of 14.4 for this season isn’t bad. However, it was 16.3 last season and 23.2 the season before that — either Slava is becoming a good defender or the limited minutes he played this season against mostly the end of the bench guys masked his deficiencies. I think it’s the latter. What’s wrong with Slava is not so much his game — it is what it is — but the $3 million per year he makes. That is way too much for what he brings to the table. Slava, maybe more than any other Laker, is hoping Phil Jackson comes back because Jackson did a good job of putting Slava in situations where he could succeed. The four is one place the Lakers need to upgrade this off-season, one of the two glaring holes (along with point guard). Odom may be able to play the four, but then you need an All-Star center and defender behind him, and I don’t see that coming. Mitch has his work cut out for him this off-season to plug this hole.

Wednesday Morning Reading

2005-05-11T10:16:00.000-07:00

I’m finishing up the end of the season report on power forwards, but if you want Laker news let me point you to a couple of things. Eric Pincus of Hoopsworld is on Phil Jackson watch but there is little new news to report. That said, it’s a good breakdown of where things stand. For those of you looking for the new wave of NBA stats for the playoffs, Knickerblogger has set up an NBA playoff stat page that is worth checking out. In case you missed it, T.J. Simers of the LA Times laid this season’s Laker problems at the feet of Shaq in his Sunday column. Simers is the biggest name in a growing mass media understanding of what really happened in LA at the end of the dynasty — that this was not just Kobe’s fault. Eric Neel mentioned it in a recent ESPN.com piece — comparing Shaq’s last two years in LA to what Vince Carter did in Toronto. My belief has always been that Shaq and Kobe deserve equal parts of the blame for the fact they couldn’t get along, with Buss getting some blame for not finding a way to get them on the same page. I think that’s always come through in this blog — although it was best expressed in a piece I did for Knickerblogger. That said, my goal with this blog has long been to stay out of the soap opera that surrounds this team and to focus on the future and on the court (which is a little harder when there is no on-the-court action). So no more about the past, but I thought the slight shift in perception is worth noting. (Of course, if you read the USA Today piece on Shaq or watched ESPN’s Outside the Lines yesterday, you’d see the love affair with Shaq in the media is far from over.)

Three Things

2005-05-09T23:54:00.000-07:00

1) Steve Nash named MVP. I know I’m a little late to this debate, but I really never thought he’d win it. He had an amazing offensive season, but I don’t see how he can be MVP because of his defense, or lack thereof. Opposing point guards shot 46.4% (eFG%). Nash’s opposing point guards got 24% of their shots in paint having driven by Nash — that’s a higher percentage than even Chucky Atkins (23%) — and that was with Amare Stoudemire behind him as an intimidator. He had more turnovers than he created in a night (losing that battle by 1 per 48 minutes) and he scored just two more points per 48 minutes than his counterpart (for comparison Nowitzki won that scoring battle by 12.6, Garnett by 9.8 and Shaq by 15.6). Personally, I’d put Nash behind Stoudemire on my MVP list (Amare had a higher PER by 5 points). Nash makes my top five but he’s not the winner. I think Nash has seen it properly and said so in his comments — he won this for the way the way the Suns played as a team more than his personal efforts. 2) Lakers raise some season ticket prices. Only the most expensive tickets in the house went up in price, and I suppose those are the people who can most easily afford it, but it would have been a goodwill gesture to keep all the prices the same after that sad season. That would be a much better apology than a town hall meeting. 3) There’s only one second-round playoff match I think will be interesting, Phoenix and Dallas. I picked Dallas to win that one before the playoffs because the Mavs played pretty good defense this season — then they promptly went out in game one and stunk up the joint. I think game two will be a better indication of how this series will go, with the Mavs needing to do a better job defending the three and playing better on Stoudemire (if that can be done). Of course, if you look at my ability to pick a winner you might not want to put money on the Mavs. On the bright side, this should be the best final four the NBA has had in a long time. I'm not the only person not enthralled with the second round matchups, there are others.

Why Phil?

2005-05-09T10:14:00.000-07:00

Everybody wants him, although the Lakers appear the frontrunner. He’s got nine rings and the respect of some of the great players of the game. He’s got an aura. But what is it that got Phil Jackson all this? What does he give his teams on the court that has brought him this success? More importantly, what can we expect him to bring the Lakers (or maybe the Knicks) if he gets signed? While much of the attention focuses on the triangle offense, what he brings first and foremost is defense. The year before Jackson arrived in Los Angeles, the 1998-99 season, the Lakers were 24th in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.1 points per 100 possessions. In Jackson’s first year that fell to 95.6, the best rate in the league. They continued to have a top-flight defense throughout Jackson’s tenure (although the championship 2000-01 season is not good as a whole, in part due to injuries, for the last 10 games of the season and the playoffs the Lakers were the best team in the league again). At the same time, the take-what-the-defense-gives-you triangle offense was put in place in Los Angeles. In the 98-99 season, the Lakers averaged 104.6 points per 100 possessions, the next season in the triangle they averaged 104.6. Defense won that first title (with a helpful fourth-quarter collapse by Portland). The triangle offense takes time to learn properly, offensive architect Tex Winter always said — in 2000-01 the Lakers averaged 106.3 points per 100 (second in the league) and in 01-02 it was 107.1 (again second, this time to Dallas). Jackson’s defensive turnaround was not just in Los Angeles trend. The year before Jackson took over the Bulls franchise they were 19th in the league in defensive efficiency, the next year they were sixth and won Jackson his first ring as a coach. Last season, the Lakers were 29th in the league in defensive efficiency with a horrifying 108 (points per 100). If Jackson could have the same impact as last time on the Laker defense, they would give up 102.5 points per 100, which would be 13th in the league — not great but a huge improvement. There would also be some optimism for the offense because guys like Odom, Bulter, Mihm and whoever else remains on the roster will have run the triangle for a while and already be on the learning curve. Remember, in early season interviews Tex Winter said he thought the current Laker roster was better suited to run the triangle than the old one (but the old one had more talent). Phil Jackson’s arrival in Los Angeles, if it happens, will not mean instant title contention — but it should mean instant defensive improvement, and with that some hope for the playoffs and the future.

Kentucky Derby Picks

2005-05-06T11:14:00.000-07:00

Go ahead and laugh, but if you read my old blog last year and put my three picks in an exacta box you would have won (I did). For the record, I hit the exacta for the Preakness as well, but missed on the Belmont. For the 2005 race I’ll take: 1) Afleet Alex: Built like a classic derby horse, put up great a Beyer number in his last race (108) and with the good closing kick that will win this year. 2) Bandini: Another horse that can close and had a good last outing, has looked good in workouts and should be suited for Churchill. 3) Greeley's Galaxy: He’s been getting better and better each run and should be in position to finish in the money if he gets a good ride. What about the favorite, Bellamy Road? Put aside the fact I have a hard time picking a horse that is owned by George Steinbrenner, I think the Wood was a bit of a fluke —he’s good but not that good. More importantly, this race sets up poorly for him. This is a horse that likes to be out front but Spanish Chestnut is a rabbit and the pace is going to be fast, pushed by several horses, which is why I have closers picked above. Churchill has long favored closers anyway. If Bellamy Road wins, this may be a super horse who will have a shot at the triple crown (the Preakness is his type of race). If I were trying to hit a trifecta or superfecta (and I am), I’d put in Bellamy Road along with Noble Causeway.

Fast Break Friday

2005-05-06T10:29:00.000-07:00

Just a few quick thoughts from the guy with a blog about a team without a real owner… • The big news is official! No, that THAT big news. But Paul Sunderland is officially out as Laker broadcaster, proving that you don’t want to be the guy who follows Chick Hearn, you want to be the guy who follows the guy who follows Chick Hearn. I hope Sunderland lands on his feet somewhere, he was good and better than many out there. Joel Meyers is the likely guy to fill the spot, but other names are being mentioned. I liked Joel Meyers on radio, but that is a more freewheeling medium, on television you use a lot fewer words, just basically writing captions for the pictures. I’m sure Meyers can do that fine, but then I thought Sunderland did. • Last night, in a crucial moment, it was Steve Javie who gave Paul Pierce a second technical and ejected him in Indiana. I posted a note about this last month — from the 2001-02 season through last year, Javie averaged an ejection ever 6.9 games. Coincidence? • If the Lakers are looking for another under-appreciated free-agent big man (ala Chris Mihm), and they are, I submit Chris Anderson. He had a PER of 18.85 last season and pulled down 17% of the available rebounds when he was on the floor (a good number). He shot 53.4%, is young, athletic and can run the floor and his numbers got better this year as he got more playing time. The question is only how much will he want — he maid $1.76 million last year. If the price tag isn’t too high, this might be a very good pickup. • The first 100,000 times I saw the promo for Into The West I thought it sounded interesting. That’s fading. • Anything that can tie the NBA and Springfield sanitation commissioner Ray Patterson together gets a link. • I’m really looking forward to the Washington/Chicago game seven and the Dallas/Houston game seven this weekend. The last Washington/Chicago tilt was one of the most entertaining games I’ve seen in a long time.

No News But Plenty Of Opinions

2005-05-05T11:04:00.000-07:00

What was interesting about Laker owner Dr. Jerry Buss’ “state of the team” press event yesterday was not what he said — there was nothing new in his comments — but rather the reaction of the local media to this no news event. In case you missed it, you can read about the event. But really, all Dr. Buss said was that he thinks this team can compete for a title again in two or three years, he wants to hire a new coach by the middle of this month and Phil Jackson is a candidate, Kobe doesn’t have a say in the choice, Mitch Kupchak is doing a fine job, and he doesn’t regret trading Shaq because Shaq was overweight and not motivated while in LA. I think this press event can be summed by the words of Officer Barbrady, “Nothing to see here, move along.” But open the newspaper this morning and apparently Buss has no idea how to run a franchise. Usually I don’t like to spend space on this blog criticizing local media because: 1) The beat guys by and large do a good job and the columnists are supposed to be personalities that sell papers by grabbing your attention; 2) I’ve got better things to do with my time than reading Plaschke and correcting his mistakes. Today, however, I’ll make an exception. The winner of the “I know better than the guy with eight championship trophies behind him” award goes to Doug Krikorian in the Long Beach Press Telegram.

The only good thing Mitch Kupchak has done since Jerry West departed the organization is, apparently, make a good impression on Buss and make a million bucks a year for himself. Kupchak hasn't made one deal worth even mentioning here, except the Shaquille O'Neal disaster with Miami.

My biggest problem with the columnists in Los Angeles’ papers is that they have no sense of what they wrote before, they care only about what they are feeling right now. (Same with radio talk show hosts, and Krikorian counts as both.) Back on July 11, 2003, just five days before the official signing of Karl Malone and Gary Payton as Lakers, Krikorian wrote a column that the headline summed up well, “Laker’s Kupchak On Quite A Roll.” Krikorian wrote a number of columns around that time saying Mitch had done well, and while that Laker team did not win a title the blame for that does not fall on Kupchak — he assembled a team that could and should have won it. And that’s just one instance, it isn’t that hard to find other times Krikorian praised Kupchak in print. The fact of the matter is Kupchak has been both good and bad, but perspective and history didn’t mesh with what Krikorian wanted to write. Krikorian goes on and on, talking about how Jackson isn’t the answer to winning instantly (even though Buss essentially said as much, saying the team was a few years away) but in Krikorian’s world what is happening right now is all that matters. There can be no plan for the future — if they can’t win it all next season he has no use for them. For the Times J.A. Adande, all this Jackson talk was getting in the way of a column bashing Buss for trading Shaq.

As long as Jackson's name is in the mix — or better yet, he's on the sidelines — the Lakers can avoid discussion of the ill-advised trade and the calamitous season that followed.

On Monday ESPN.com’s Scoop Jackson was on an internet radio show dedicated to sports blogs last week, Sports Bloggers Live. His interview is worth listening to (so is the interview at 15 minutes in with Knickerblogger). Scoop talks about how Shaq makes hypocrites out of sports writers — columnists nationwide jumped all over Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady earlier this year because they took games off, but Shaq took two years off in Los Angeles and nobody said anything. The reason, Scoop said, is the media loves Shaq because he’s quotable and he’s fun to be around (he did dine with some media members while on the road with the Lakers). Shaq gets a free pass, Scoop admits. Again, it takes time for to judge big moves. The 2007-08 season is when I think we’ll know how the Shaq trade turned out. If Shaq is still playing and a dominant force for a Miami team that is a championship contender, while the Lakers limp along, then it will have been a huge miscalculation. But if Shaq is gone while the Lakers have rebuilt into a contender, Adande, Simmers and Krikorian will be writing columns about Buss’ brilliant foresight. That’s what they’ll be feeling at that moment. Here's a thought for the day: Buss is a poker player, do you really think he laid all his cards on the table with the media?

End of Season Report Card: Small Forwards

2005-05-04T11:13:00.000-07:00

This is the fourth in a series of season wrap-up posts for the Lakers (we’ve already done team management, point guard and shooting guards).Players in this post will be listed this way: Kobe Bryant (23.8/15.1/+2.8). Those numbers are: the player’s PER, his opponents PER for the season at his primary position, and his +/- averaged for 48 minutes. I stole this listing idea from Knickerblogger, and get the stats from his site and 82games.com. While none of these statistics is perfect, together they give a pretty good indication of what a player meant to a team. For a position where the Lakers had more players than they could possibly use, they got very little production from the three. As a team, the PER for this position was an average 14.9, while the team opponents PER was 18.4. That -3.5 differential in PER was worse than any position on the floor except point guard. Part of that was Caron Butler (16.10/20/-4.0) but he was really a man of two seasons — the vast majority of the season and the games after Lamar Odom went down. For that first “season," Butler appeared flummoxed while waiting in line for his shots behind Kobe, Lamar and Atkins. In spite of that he averaged 17.4 points per 40 minutes, the second best rate on the team. For the season Butler shot a pedestrian 46.4% (eFG%) and averaged 1.06 points per shot attempt. All that changed when Odom went down late in the season. Butler suddenly was shooting 49.7% and averaging 1.12 points per shot attempt. The reason is Butler has to drive to the basket to be effective, and that role in the offense went to Kobe and Odom. Butler took 57% of his shots as jump shots and shot just 39.1% (eFG%) on those. But when he drove to the hole his shooting percentage jumped — 56% for shots inside 15 feet — and a much higher percentage on the 8% of his shots that were dunks. For all the talk about how Kobe’s game didn’t mesh with Odom’s this past season, part of the offensive struggles of the Lakers this season was that it’s three best players all wanted to drive the lane. Defensively, Butler, more than any other Laker, was someone who could have been a good defensive player but what hurt by the lack of defensive system. Butler is a good athlete, but opponent three guards shot 52.4% eFG while he was on the floor. He hurt the team defensively, and for that reason I’d grade him a C for the entire season. If Odom were gone next season and a better defensive system were in place I think Butler could thrive. That said, Butler is a last-year contract and Odom is not, meaning Butler is more valuable on the trade market. (By the way, I'm lumping Odom in the power forwards review, even though he should play the three.) The first Laker off the bench for much of the year was Jumaine Jones (13.35/17.7/+3.8), who turned out to be a pleasant surprise as part of the deal with Boston. For the first part of the year he led the team in +/- (he finished third) and provided a spark off the bench shooting 53.7% (eFG%), the highest percentage on the team. He is another Laker who fell in love with the three point shot — 53.7% of his attempts were from beyond the arc, where he shot 39%. His points per shot attempt were 1.11, third best on the team. Jones’ ability to come off the bench hot, hit an outside shot consistently and grab some rebounds (12.3% of the available boards while he was on the floor) made him one of the few players on the Lakers this season to find and fit in a role. His defense is not spectacular and his efficiency went down when he was thrust into a starting role (and the amount of the offense that went through him went up), but he can be a solid sixth or seventh man for years in Los Angeles. I’d give him a B- (the minus only because he struggled on defense, too). On the other hand, Luke Walton (11.62/18.1/-5.1) never found a role or seemed to fit on this year’s Laker team. Part of the reason is he has played out of position a lot — while the 6’8” Walton is a natural three, he played 72% of the time on the floor as a four. His rebounds did improve this season (he grabbed 10.4% of the available rebounds), particularly on the offensive end, but Walton is not a power forward. While his points per game was up, Walton’s efficiency went down as he struggled with the three-point shooting Lakers early in the season — Walton shot 26.2% from beyond the arc. (On the 37% of his shots that were inside 15 feet but not dunks or tip-ins, he shot 52.2%.) Walton’s eFG% fell to 45.6% (from 46.7%) and his points per shot attempt fell to 0.98 (from 1.01). Neither of those are big drop offs, but in a season where Laker fans thought Walton would break out, a step backward, however small, was disheartening. For that, Walton gets a C-. The Lakers need to make a decision about whether to resign Walton, who is an unrestricted free agent. That will be one of the first decisions for the new coach, whoever that is, and will likely depend on the offensive system run. We already know Phil Jackson liked how Walton worked in the triangle, but another coach might have other ideas. If the Lakers want to shoot a lot of threes, Walton is not the best choice. The other thing that could make Luke tough to resign is that he could fit very well in some systems and a smart GM may recognize that and offer a contract (say, $2 million per year) that the Lakers don't want to match. It’s almost impossible to give an accurate assessment of Devean George (10.89/18.6/-8.6), who played 15 games after coming off an injury. That said, his numbers in those 15 games were pretty comparable to his career averages — his PER was down slightly from last season’s 11.5, but not dramatically; his eFG% was 45.7%, right between last season’s 46.5% and his career 44.8%; his points per shot attempt of 0.98 is the same as last season and close to his career of 0.96; he grabbed 9.9% of the available rebounds, close to his career average of 9.8%. However, because of the short season I’d grade him an incomplete. In my opinion, there is no player the Lakers can get more value in trading this off-season than George. Those statistics listed above for George are pedestrian, signs of a guy who should be coming off the bench somewhere — but that is not perception of George around the league. He is seen as long and athletic and a solid starter (he was when there were four hall of famers around him). Trading is about getting more value in return than you send off, and George is one player that gives the Lakers the chance to do that.

Fast Break

2005-05-02T11:28:00.000-07:00

Lots of things I want to get to today, so, in an act of a lazy blogger, out come the bullet points. • My favorite playoff series to watch so far has been Houston and Dallas. Tracy McGrady has been getting all the props, and deservedly so — he played the four just 1% of the time in the regular season, then in the playoffs has stepped up in that role and played solid D on Nowitzki (as much as anyone can slow the German down). But don’t forget about Yao Ming, who has started to play with the aggressiveness he usually just reserves for playing against Shaq. Ming is shooting 72.5% from the field in four games, is scoring 32.97 points per 48 minutes (up from 28.74 during the regular season), is pulling down 5.8 offensive rebounds per 48 (up from 4.1) and is blocking 3.8 shots (up from 3.1). Houston’s stars have stepped up in the post season. • Let’s get the Phil Jackson update out of the way. The New York Post is reporting Cleveland is no longer in the running. And this was a surprise to….. ah, nobody. On Sunday, the LA Times dedicated New Yorker-length column inches to stories and opinions about Phil’s potential return. Here is the kernel of truth in all of it:

(Shaq) O'Neal, who is trying to lead Miami to its first NBA championship, took the time before a recent playoff game to ask a reporter what was going to happen with Jackson. The answer: Only Jackson knows, and he is saying little.

• In honor of the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy being the top grossing film of the weekend — the answer is 42. • Coaching move of the first round goes to Gregg Popovich for bringing Manu Ginobili off the bench. It takes guts to sit your second best player at the start of games, but it has worked. ESPN’s John Hollinger wrote about this last week — Barry has much better numbers when he starts than when he comes off the bench, but Ginobili plays at the same level either way. Start Barry and he’s played better (62.5% eFG in the playoffs, averaging 12.47 points per 48) plus Ginobili leads a bench Denver can’t match. Apparently Popovich learned something while out at Pomona. • I work with two Chelsea fans and they are going to be unbearable this week. At least my team knocked them out of the FA Cup. • I know it was never going to happen, but watching Carlos Arroyo in the little playing time he has received in Detroit during the playoffs reminded me I think he would have been a nice fit in Laker colors. He’s averaging 10.3 assists and 3.7 points per 48 in the playoffs (and 6 fouls).

End Of Season Report Card: Shooting Guards

2005-04-29T12:41:00.000-07:00

Welcome to all of the visitors from Instapundit, make yourself at home. This is a Laker blog but we talk all of the NBA here. Check out the links on the left for other great NBA blogs and sites as well. That said, this is the wrap up post for another position on the Lakers (we’ve already done team management and point guard), and since there are more visitors here than ever let’s talk about who everyone wants to talk about: Kobe. These player-related posts will have players listed this way: Kobe Bryant (23.8/15.1/+2.8). Those numbers are: the player’s PER, his opponents PER for the season at his primary position, and his +/- averaged for 48 minutes. I stole this listing idea from Knickerblogger, and get the stats from his site and 82games.com. While none of these statistics is perfect, together they give a pretty good indication of what a player meant to a team. Kobe must be a humbled man after the past two seasons he’s had — this was to be his team and it fell way short of expectations. He is taking blame for things both his fault and beyond his control, which comes with the territory of it being “your team.” But on the court, the problems with this team were not all at Kobe’s feet. Kobe (23.8/15.1/+2.8) was very good — his PER was seventh in the league and down just slightly from last year (23.7). He had an eFG% of 48.2%, which is up from last season (46.8%) and back above his career average (48%). He had a career high in points per shot attempt, 1.13, largely because he got to the free throw line more than any year, drawing fouls on 16% of his shot attempts (10.1 free throws attempted per game this season, two per game more than last season). Kobe took more jumpers than ever before — 71% of his shots were jump shots, last year that was 66%. Kobe, in the face of being the main focus of the opposition, settled for the outside shot more often, he needs not to do that. Some of those jump shots came because he was forced to bail out the shaky Laker offense way too much — 17% of Kobe’s shots came with three seconds or less left on the 24-second shot clock. That’s an insanely high percentage, but we saw it all season: After passing the ball around for 16 seconds, Chucky Atkins would find Kobe the ball with time running down and the rest of the Lakers would stand around while he was asked to create. Certainly, part of the reason for those offensive breakdowns was Kobe himself. If there was one Laker who played outside of the offensive system this season (or should we say, both offensive systems), it was Bryant. Then there was his defense, which started out strong but slipped as the season went along. Part of this was due to injuries — after the mid-season ankle injury his defense was never as good, his quickness just half a step slower. (Kobe played way too many minutes this season, averaging 40.7, which is one reason he played tired at times and never got healthy.) He finished the season with an oPER of 15.1, basically right at the league average (15) but much worse than last season (13.8). (As a side note, part of that was a lack of interior protection — if you beat Kobe off the dribble this season you could get to the hole, if you beat him last season Shaq was waiting for you.) The big question with Kobe this season is: Did he, as the focal point of the team, make everyone around him better? That’s a mixed bag. Chucky Atkins (13.72/19.1/+1.6) and Chris Mihm (16.09/16.2/-2.1) had career years. But those are role players. The guy he needed to mesh best with, Lamar Odom (17.65/17.6/+1.9), played better with Kobe out — Odom deferred to Kobe and Kobe never did a consistent job of getting Odom involved. Part of talking Kobe is also talking leadership — here is the one place I think he can grow. The reports out of practices were that he was more Bobby Knight than supportive mentor, and that aggressive style wears thin on many professional players. That said, at the end of the season he appeared to bond well with Caron Butler (16.1/20/-4) — it is possible Kobe is learning to use the carrot and the stick. I’d grade Kobe out as a B this year, but hope that he takes it as would a driven straight-A student who earned his first B. He needs to assess what went wrong in his own mind and, hopefully, fully realize that he has to play within the offense (whatever it is), get teammates involved and lead by example first and foremost. I think he understands these things on an intellectual level, but doing them at a gut level with adrenalin flowing is another thing. There is no question about Kobe’s work ethic — he will come back ready to play. He needs to come back ready to lead. One guy who could take some of the minute load off Kobe next year is Sasha Vujacic (9.13/21.3/+5.2). There may be no player who had more written about him on this site this year than Sasha, and it’s because the rookie showed great flashes of potential (remember when he asked for a clear out so he could take Kevin Garnett one-one-one, then beat him to the hole for two). The problem was, those were followed by moments of indecision, poor defense and streaky shooting. If it is Phil Jackson who coaches the Lakers next year, Sasha is the kind of tall guard he likes and that could mean more playing time. But first and foremost, Sasha’s defense must improve — he was solid playing the zone (which he played more in Europe) but struggled in man to man. He never really came close to figuring out how to get around a good pick — he lost his man almost every time. That said, he did show improvement as the year went on. Sasha has amazing passing skills, but to really take advantage of those he has to become a more consistent threat to score himself. Sasha shot just 34.9% eFG% on jump shots this season, and that accounted for 79% of his attempts. The limited number of minutes played by Sasha this season did not help his development — he needs to play summer league and in just about every pick-up game he can find. He needs to live in the gym. If he does all that, maybe next year he can become a more consistent part of the rotation — which would make we fans happy.

Carnival of the NBA

2005-04-28T12:24:00.000-07:00

There ain’t no Carnival like a playoff Carnival. The Carnival of NBA blogs has made a stop in Los Angeles, where the Staples Center sits as empty as Jennifer Aniston’s heart. If you don’t know what a carnival is read this (from Matt at Bulls Blog, who started the traveling roadshow), otherwise come along for the First Round playoff edition of the Carnival. Out East, Crazy from the Heat is enjoying thrashing New Jersey and thinks a Little League-style mercy rule should be evoked before game three. He’s got a point — if you can’t stop Zo how you gonna stop a now-motivated Shaq? Also look for a big stats-based post on the site in the next couple of days about the Heat. The other thrashing out East is Detroit over Philadelphia and that makes the Piston bloggers happy. While Knickerblogger may not have his horse in this year’s race, he likes Detroit and the Heat to battle it out in the Eastern Finals. Jeff and his legions of commenters at Celtics Blog want to know where was Al Jefferson and the rest of the bench during game two? Good question. That said, game three is tonight and the words of the day for Celtic fans are ”don’t panic.”Meanwhile, the Pacer Nation is loving the last magical days of Reggie Miller. After too long an absence, Bulls Blog is not only enjoying returning the playoffs but winning — just like the good old days. In the West, Spurs Blog thinks everything is right with the world now that the series is even. A second loss and the sun may have set in the east. As you might expect, Nugget fans and bloggers are now the ones concerned. The people over at Supersonics vs. The World want to know what has gotten into Jerome James? The good people at Supersonics Soul think they have the answer. The bigger question in Seattle is what has gotten into Radmanovic’s hair? Not everybody made the playoffs and that means plenty of non-playoff talk is out there on the Web. Everybody loves playing with bubblewrap, including the people at Hornets 24/7 who are looking back at the best quotes about the team during the year. (Warning, this may not be up until Friday, but it’s worth checking back for.) Scott at Raptorblog feels like the more things change the more they stay the same. Father Knickerbocker is is rehashing the Knicks season in detail. The Timberwolves Blog is checking out the playoffs. And Golden State blog The City can’t wait for next year’s playoffs to start because they think Barron can lead them to the promised land.

Thursday Morning Reading

2005-04-28T10:19:00.000-07:00

Two stories worth reading to pass along, although both completely different. The first is the latest piece by Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld. He says that Phil is likely and there are several trade possibilities discussed.

Jonathan Bender and the 17th pick have been rumored to be on their way to LA for Devean George and either Slava Medvedenko or Brian Cook. What’s not clear is the picks LA has to send in return. LA probably sends over the 2007 1st round pick, but that's speculation.

The Hoopsworld piece also talks mock draft and has the Lakers taking Jerrett Jack, the point guard out of Georgia Tech at 10. Personally, the way his draft broke, I would have preferred Fran Vasquez. That said, I still say all trade and draft talk is premature until a coach is signed on the dotted line — we need a team philosophy first, then we can get players to fit it. Second, very interesting and disturbing story I found through Ben Maller, about youth basketballl:

Clark Francis, publisher of The Hoop Scoop, a Louisville, Ky.-based scouting service that has pushed the envelope on ranking young players, last spring pushed it to its lowest point yet: fourth-graders. Kevin Ferrell, then a 10-year-old, 4-foot-10-inch point guard from Lakeside Elementary in Warren Township, has a crossover dribble, can hit a running jumper in the lane and snaps off one-handed bounce passes that hit teammates in stride. He topped Francis' national list. And soon the pressure began.

The Three Phil Jackson Questions

2005-04-27T10:36:00.000-07:00

Update: Without getting into details, I spoke with a friend who has good contacts within the Laker organization and the word is the Lakers organization is very confident Phil will be the next coach. I made that call after reading the reliable Eric Pincus from Hoopsworld say in several message boards today that he is of the impression that a Jackson deal is close. Nothing is certain until papers are signed and Kobe and Phil talk, but this may be closer to reality than a dream. The only way there could be more rumors swirling through the media about Phil Jackson is if he had something to do with Britney's pregnancy. He met with Jerry Buss, but not with Kobe Bryant. The Knicks think they have a shot, Cleveland hopes they have a shot. Some Laker fans think Phil is the team's only shot and the respectable Eric Pincus said he could even be on board by Friday. Before Jackson signs on the dotted line with the Lakers, three big hurdles have to be cleared, and I'm not sure all of them can be. None of this is new, but with all the hype I thought it should be restated. Here they are, in the order from least to biggest problem. 1) Phil wants to be paid about $10 million a year. This may be already decided — that's a huge check for Buss to write, but if that well-publicized number were abhorrent to Buss I seriously doubt the conversation would have gotten this far. There's another way for Buss to look at this: Last year he was scheduled to pay Rudy T. about $6 million for the season, in Jackson's last season with the Lakers he made about $6 million. NBA financial analysts say that every win earns a team about an additional $250,000 in revenue. By that math, if Jackson (and some new players) can bring the Lakers 16 more wins — turning the Lakers back into a 50-win team — the additional revenue would offset the increase in coaching salary. Not that getting to 50 wins would be doable, even for Jackson, but if you think he can do it the money is less of an issue. 2) Relationships need to be mended. When people talk about the fallout from "the book," the assumption is we're talking about Kobe. And that certainly needs to be dealt with. Has the last season been humbling enough for Kobe to work with Jackson again with an open mind? Is Jackson willing to put his past problems with Kobe aside and start fresh? The two men would need to have a clear-the-air talk, which may or may not be enough. But it's not just Kobe. I didn't read Jackson's book (and those that did may be able to speak better to this), but the impression is Mitch Kupchak does not come off well. Can he and Jackson work together again? Is Buss, who told Jackson the team needed to go in another direction, ready and willing to bring Phil back into the fold? There are a lot of relationships that need mending. 3) Does Jackson want to coach again? It's one thing to be wanted, it's another to want it yourself. Jackson may enjoy the courting process right now, but does he have the fire back, the willingness to put in the hours needed prepare for the second night of a back-to-back in Toronto in February? Before the courting process started, friends of Jackson's said it was 50/50 he would come back at all. Maybe the excitement of the playoffs starting and all the interest shown him has changed that percentage, but if his heart is not completely in it he needs to take a step back. Coaching in the NBA is an unbelievable grind, and if he is not physically and mentally up to it he is not going to do any team any good by taking the job just for the check. That's three big hurdles to get over. If they are cleared, Jackson might be back on the Laker bench next year and the team would be better for it. But we're a long way from dreaming of next year's playoffs now.

End of the Season Report Card: Point Guards

2005-04-26T14:20:00.000-07:00

This is the second in a series over the next couple of weeks looking at this Laker team in depth and possible moves for the future. The first post looked at team management. (These player-related posts will have players listed this way: Kobe Bryant (23.8/15.1/+2.8). Those numbers are: the player’s PER, his opponents PER for the season at his primary position, and his +/- averaged for 48 minutes. I stole this listing idea from Knickerblogger, and get the stats from his site and 82games.com. While none of these statistics is perfect, together they give a pretty good indication of what a player meant to a team.) No position became the symbol of Laker frustration this past season, and no position took harsher critiques, than point guard. There’s a reason for that — they sucked. The Lakers got a PER of 12.9 as a team from that position, the lowest of any spot on the floor, but opponents PER was 18.9, making it also the Lakers worst spot defensively. No player was more of a microcosm of the entire Laker season than Chucky Atkins (13.72/19.1/+1.6), and no player became more of a scapegoat for the team’s problems among fans. Offensively Atkins fell in love with the three-point shot — 50% of his shot attempts this year were from beyond the arc. While his shooting was good — 52.3% (eFG%) and 1.12 points per shot attempt — he was not good at moving the ball around, averaging just 4.9 assists per 40 minutes. In fact, he needed to be set up — 60% of his baskets were off an assist. He settled for jumpers and penetrated little, drawing fouls on just 5.4% of his shot attempts. Then there was his defense — Ole! Atkins opponents average 20.7 points per 48 minutes and shot 49.6% (eFG%). Those opponents blew past him on the perimeter and got 23% of their shots inside the paint. Atkins averaged just one steal per 40 minutes played. Nightly he was a liability on the defensive end, something evident whether you looked at the statistics or just watched with the naked eye. Part of the problem was the Laker brass didn’t think there was a viable backup at point. Tierre Brown (9.71/18.7/-1.9) was certainly not the answer. While quicker and more willing to penetrate — 35% of his shots came in the paint — Brown also turned the ball over 2.8 times per 40 minutes, the third worst number on the team (and the worst number belonged to Kobe, but he handled the ball the most). Brown did not shoot well, shooting 39.7% on the season and averaging just .87 points per shot attempt. His defense was slightly better than Atkins, but not enough to make a difference — against Brown opponents averaged 19.7 points per 48 minutes and shot 45.7%. He averaged just 1.2 steals per 40 minutes. Overall, I give the Lakers a D at the position this past season. And it is one position the Lakers absolutely must to address in the off-season — but how to go about that will depend on the preferences of the new coach. While the league may be trending toward smaller, quicker guards, Phil Jackson has long been partial to taller guards. One answer may already be on the roster in Sasha Vujacic (9.13/21.3/+5.2). He showed flashes this year but also plenty of immaturity (a more detailed breakdown of Sasha will be part of the shooting guard recap, since that’s where he played most of his time). Whether he will work depends on: 1) The offensive system being run; 2) Sasha getting better at man-to-man defense, particularly his footwork; 3) Becoming a more consistent jump shooter. There are a number of veteran point guards available via free agency whatever direction the Lakers choose — Earl Watson if you want to go small, Marco Jaric if you go big. It may be difficult for the Lakers to afford either of those or an Antonio Daniels. Also available as unrestricted free agency are Jeff McInnis from Cleveland and former Laker Tyronn Lue (Lue’s statistics per 48 minutes this season compare well with Akins, but Lue made just $1.65 million, which is a much better price for someone in a back up role). This is also considered a deep draft for point guards. The Lakers will not get Chris Paul from Wake Forest without a lottery miracle, however someone like Raymond Felton from North Carolina or Deron Williams from Illinois could be around. If you want a someone who comes defensive-ready, there’s Georgia Tech’s Jarrett Jack (but not at #10, that’s too high for him). The Lakers need to make changes at the one, but don’t assume Chucky is gone. For all his flaws, Atkins could be a spark off the bench with his shooting — he hit 38.7% of his three point attempts. He just needs to play 12-15 minutes a game, not the 35.4 he averaged this season. Another reason to keep Atkins is he is in the last year of his deal, earning $4.5 million, making his very good trade bait. But that trade could happen this summer as well, and no Lakers fans are going to shed a tear if Atkins is gone. Brown likely is gone to make room for whoever is coming in.

Notes From The Weekend

2005-04-25T11:08:00.000-07:00

I watched some NBA playoff games, read what I could about the Lakers and went to the LA Times Festival of Books. Here are some thoughts: • Phil Jackson Watch: The Lakers are meeting Tuesday with Jackson to talk coaching, according to Joel Meyers. Phil also is scheduled to talk to the New York Knicks in the next week or so. Personally, if I were Jackson I would meet with everyone I could, even if I knew where I wanted to coach, just to drive up my price. • Do you really think Isaiah Thomas would give up the roster control Phil Jackson would demand? • Kobe’s wrist, which bothered him the last couple weeks of the season, does not have anything seriously wrong with it. • I guess what Laker play-by-play Paul Sunderland will be doing next fall depends on whom you ask. As passed along here, Bob Kaiser in the Press Telegram said a few weeks ago that he was toast. Then last Friday Larry Stewart in the Times said no decision would be made until May. My guess is management is looking to see who is out there before making a decision. Stewart also said:

Word is the Lakers are considering a change because the ratings are down. Earth to Lakers: Maybe the team's performance had something to do with that.

• How ‘bout those Nuggets? I still have to like San Antonio over seven games, but what if this were a five-game series like the “old” days? Same thing with the Houston/Dallas series, I think the Mav’s depth will win out in seven but if this were a five-game series Mark Cuban would and should be a lot more nervous. • By the way, the rest of my playoff picks (based on my first round selections) are: Western Conference, second round, Dallas over Phoenix in seven, San Antonio over Sacramento in five. Western Conference Finals: San Antonio over Dallas in six. Eastern Conference, second round: Miami over Chicago in five, Detroit over Boston in five. Eastern Conference Finals, Detroit over Miami in six. NBA Finals, San Antonio over Detroit in seven. • There are T-shirts on sale in the Miami arena that say, “Thank you, Kobe.” That’s pretty funny. • My wife and I got to the LA Times Festival of Books early Sunday so our daughter could see Bob the Builder. Turns out he’s just like a real contractor — he show’s up late and only works for about half as long as expected. • Other highlights from the Festival include getting a book signed by Gore Vidal (I had to get his new book, but also had him sign my copy of Lincoln) and a very funny speech by Eric Idle. By the way (and not that anyone organizing the festival reads this), but at the large political panels (such as the one we saw in Royce Hall), don’t let the public ask questions. People at the mike either give a speech, plug some other book or just generally spout nonsense — you’re lucky if one out of 10 people actually ask a good question. I came to hear the people on the panels, let them talk. • Mike G. over at the APBRmetrics board posted recently this chart showing the Lakers true shooting percentages as compared to points per game — and it showed that the Lakers who took the shots pretty much were they guys who should have taken the shots. I’d like to see Odom and Butler getter a higher TS%, but all in all this isn’t that bad. That said, the offense wasn’t the problem. TS% . . player . . . . . . PPG .563 Bryant,Kobe . . 27.6 .558 Atkins,Chucky . 13.6 .556 Jones,Jumaine .. 7.6 .552 Mihm,Chris . . . . 9.8 .539 Grant,Brian . . . . 3.8 .539 Odom,Lamar . . 15.2 .528 Butler,Caron . .. 15.5 .522 Cook,Brian . . . . 6.4 .437 Brown,Tierre . . . 4.4 (True Shooting Percentage is half of points per shot attempt, a stat that credits people for three pointers and free throws in addition to basic made baskets. Some stats people prefer TS% to PSA because they see the stat as more “digestible” as a percentage. I don’t have a preference. The league average this season was about .529.) • Wild, unsubstantiated rumors of the day: The Lakers sending Devean George, Slava and both our second-round picks to Indiana for Jonathon Bender and the 17th overall pick. There’s also the rumor the Lakers are trying to revive the Carlos Boozer deal with Caron, Chucky Atkins and more going to Utah — I’d love to see that, but I’d also love to see myself driving a Porsche. Both seem highly unlikely.

The Playoffs: Round One

2005-04-22T11:40:00.000-07:00

Normally at this time of year in Los Angeles Laker flags start popping up on cars like cherry blossoms in Washington DC. Everywhere you turned people were wearing Laker gear, talking playoffs and showing some civic pride. This year we get the “news” that Phil Jackson is a viable coaching candidate. Shocking. Today, I’m wearing my Dodger jersey (and if I had one, a “DePodesta was right” T-shirt, something the entire LA Times sports staff should be forced to don). At the gas station this morning two people were wearing Dodger hats. Last night at the grocery store I saw people wearing Dodger shirts. It’s great to see — if we don’t have the Lakers at least we have one team overachieving. That said, I’m still going to be watching the NBA playoffs. Here are some first round thoughts and predictions. Please feel free to contribute your own. Western Conference Phoenix and Memphis. Jerry West is brilliant, but for the past two years Bryan Colangelo has been better. Phoenix in four. San Antonio and Denver. This is going to be interesting, if San Antonio were healthy it would be one thing but they are not. George Karl will try to exploit this — he has enough big bodies (even if they don’t play defense) to throw at Tim Duncan, then Manu Ginobili will get run until he drops. San Antonio catches a break with the number of days off in the first round. The franchise that produced the greatest first-round upset in history will come close again, but I’ll take the Spurs in seven. Seattle and Sacramento. Paging Hawkeye Pierce. We may even need Frank Burns to attend to the walking wounded in this series. All season long the Sonics were the darlings of we fans of the new thinking in NBA stats, but injuries and more have pulled the team apart. Sacramento is not better without Chris Webber, but they’re not worse either. Seattle is 2-8 in their last 10 games, with teams shooting 55% (eFG%) against them. I can’t pick a team that cold, so I’ll take the upset of Sacramento in six. Dallas and Houston. I like Houston, but I like Dallas more. The Mavs are a solid all around team and Houston, with its average offense (15th in the league in offensive efficiency) is not there yet. I’ll take Dallas in six. Eastern Conference Miami and New Jersey. The Nets come in playing their best basketball of the year, 8-2 in their last 10 and Vince Carter averaging 39.75 points per 48 minutes in that span. On the other side of the ledger, Shaq is not 100% and it may take a couple of games for the team to gel around him again. You think that means I’ll call an upset? Miami in six. Detroit and Philadelphia. There may be no team playing better right now than Detroit. The Sixers come in hot as well, having one 8 of their last 10, but Tayshaun Prince can shut down Iverson. Detroit in five. Boston and Indiana. If there is one series I have no feel for it’s this one. Whose star is going to hit the bigger clutch shots — Paul Pierce or Reggie Miller? I’ll take Pierce. Celtics in seven. Chicago and Washington. If Deng and Curry were healthy this would be a no-brainer, but instead we get the battle of the backcourts. I think the difference here is defense — on the season Chicago has been the second most efficient defense in the league (97.4 points per 100 possessions) and in the last 10 games, without Deng and Curry, that has fallen to 96.5. Meanwhile Washington on the season gave up 103.9 and in the last 10 — with their playoff lives hanging in the balance — it was 110.4. It’s still close, Arenas will have some big games, but give me Chicago in seven.

End Of The Season Report Card: Management

2005-04-21T12:35:00.001-07:00

There are many paths to enlightenment. Be sure to take one with a heart.

-Lao Tzu

I was worried at first when I heard Mitch Kupchak say there was no set blueprint for the rebuilding of the Lakers. But the more I thought about it, the more I saw a Zen-like wisdom in the idea of being flexible — there is not one path back to the championship. It can be done running or through Phil’s slowed-down triangle, and with Kobe as the core player you have options because his game has so many facets. I’m less concerned with what specific actions Mitch takes than that there are actions — he is on the clock. I’m not sure we’ve ever really seen what Mitch can do. When he took over for Jerry West it was Phil Jackson that ultimately had the say over player moves. Mitch was the guy in charge when Karl Malone and Gary Payton to put on Laker uniforms — a move we all thought guaranteed a championship — but again that was more about Phil, Kobe and Shaq than it was Mitch. Then, after last season, owner Jerry Buss tells Mitch to trade Shaq and make sure he did it fast enough to resign Kobe, tying his hands to make a good deal and forcing him to take the best of bad options. The Mitch/Jerry Buss tandem did make one big mistake this past off-season — saying they wanted a running team then hiring Rudy T. As was pointed out during the season, the penetrate-and-dish-for-three offense of Rudy T. was exactly what should have been expected. Rudy T. was an odd coaching choice for what the Lakers’ stated goals and talent were — with a point/forward like Lamar, plus Kobe, Butler and Mihm this is a team that could have run. That said, Mitch and no one else expected Rudy T. would have no apparent defensive system and then would need to step down because the stress of the job was too much. So my grade for the past season is an Incomplete. Now they have to retake the class — they have the chance to start the rebuilding and do it right. That’s not to say it’s going to be easy. As I and many others have preached since day one, this rebuilding must start with a coach and a team philosophy. In a radio interview on 570 am yesterday afternoon, Mitch said that Phil Jackson’s name was at the top of the list of candidates, although that was the only name on the list he discussed. Whether it’s Phil or someone else, who is the coach and what offensive and defensive systems will be run will determine Mitch’s next moves — the point guard Phil would want for the triangle is different than what Flip Saunders would want if he wants to make the Lakers a running team. Or, in another example, Phil very likely would want Luke Walton back, other coaches may be lukewarm. Whatever moves the Lakers make, Mitch said to look more for trades than free agent signings. This makes sense — the Lakers already have more than $69 million in salary committed for next year and this is not New York, they aren’t just going to add salary. The big question with trades is: Do you break up the trio of Kobe, Lamar and Caron? To get something in a trade the Lakers are going to have to give up something, and if they want a significant trade Lamar or Butler will have to go. The end of the year play between Kobe and Caron has many Laker fans thinking it is Lamar who should go — but it is Butler that is by far the more tradable asset. Odom will make $10 million next year and is signed through 2009, Butler is in the last year of a deal paying him $2.4. Last year contracts are the coin of the realm for trades in today’s NBA, and unlike at last year’s trading deadline Mitch has several at his disposal now — Atkins, Butler, George, Vlade, Slava and Jumaine Jones. Slava and Vlade have little trade value, but the rest could be moved more easily — certainly more easily than Odom. Kupchak also will have his best draft position ever — likely 10th. By the way, if you’re dreaming of Chris Paul running the point for the Lakers, know that they have a 1.4% chance of the top pick and a 4% chance of landing in the top three. It’s not going to happen — can you imagine the outcry and wailing that the system is fixed if the Lakers got the top pick? The best mock drafts out there have the Lakers getting someone like Chris Taft out of Pittsburgh (an Ebby Calvin 'Nuke' LaLoosh at the four — $1 million body and a 5¢ head). Most likely the Lakers will get a guy who can contribute off the bench but not be a starter or star. All of this is a lot to ask of Mitch, to rebuild this team back into a good playoff team in just one year, especially in the very deep Western Conference. But that’s the job he signed up for, and if he wants to keep it he’s going to have to get a passing grade next year.

On Tap: This Is The End, My Friends

2005-04-20T11:50:00.000-07:00

This has been a hard season to be a Laker fan. A hard season to watch if you love basketball. Back in October we entered the season with muted expectations after the trade of Shaq, but this was not a team without talent. I thought — we all thought — that as the season wore on this team would get more used to each other’s games, more used to what Rudy T. wanted as a coach and by the end of the season we would be above .500, in the playoffs somewhere and we would have an idea of how to build for the future. Tonight is the last game of the season and those ideas — and that plan for the future — have been obliterated. The rest of the league (and countless fans, media members and bloggers) have reveled in our fall and offered a swift kick on the way down. Tonight we play a poor Portland team that can we relate to — we are both without a coach for next year, with a talented but underachieving rosters, and apparently without blueprints for making things better. I’ll watch tonight’s game hoping that the team that apparently has given up can find a little effort, give us something to hang our hat on heading into the off-season. What has been the most frustrating thing about this season were the flashes — flashes of team defense (they were rare), flashes of offensive cohesion, flashes of the team we thought we’d have. I'd love to see one of those flashes tonight. But what I expect to see tonight is what I have seen (and not seen) all season — a lack of interest on defense, no Vlade (due to the suspension this time), Kobe being given the ball with six seconds on the 24 and told to get the shot off by himself, Chucky Atkins being Chucky Atkins, and a substitution pattern that will be bewildering. All I can hope is that we see some progress tonight. And this off-season. --------------------------------------- While tonight is the end of the Lakers’ season, it is far from the end of this blog. I started this less than six months ago and already we are past 12,000 total hits (and that was after a first month where nobody came) and readership is growing despite the Lakers demise. Thank you all for taking the time to come here — and especially all of your comments. This site has a core of great and intelligent commenters that I sincerely enjoy and hope will expand over the summer and into next season. This should be an interesting summer — a new coach, the draft, the Long Beach Summer Pro League (which I will be at a fair amount of), and plenty of roster changes. We’ll be watching and talking playoffs at this site too, because we are basketball fans not just Laker fans. Thanks again — you have made this fun for me and I look forward to the wild ride ahead.

New Carnival of the NBA

2005-04-20T10:06:00.000-07:00

The letter of the day is K, as in Knickerblogger, who came up with an interesting way to put to put together the latest Carnival of the NBA post, then blamed it on an 80s band. Whatever reason he uses, it's still a good way to find out what else NBA bloggers are saying.

Season Grades Start Coming In

2005-04-19T11:46:00.000-07:00

The first season grade for the team is in and it’s from Chad “I’ll go public with rumors faster than Hacksaw” Ford on ESPN Insider. Without giving out specifics of pay-per-view content, he blames everything on Kobe, including saying he forced Rudy T. into retirement. That made me more suspect of Ford than before, if that was possible. Then he gave the team a C- for the season, which sounds about right to me. (I chalk him being right up to the "a broken clock is right twice a day" theory.) The way I see it, the Lakers are that kid in class who did very well then suddenly had big changes that disrupted his life at home, and when that happened his grades fell. That’s to be expected. What you really want to see is the kid not continue the downward spiral and turn into a laughingstock but shake out of it and return to form. In the case of the Lakers that return to form will not be instantaneous, but there needs to be substantial progress next season. That means smart moves in the off-season, starting with bringing a top-flight coach. In the coming days I’ll be doing more of an in-depth end-of-season report card/look to the future, starting with team management (likely on Thursday). I hadn’t planned to give an overall grade, but C- seems right to me.

On Tap: The Golden State Warriors

2005-04-18T12:27:00.000-07:00

Yesterday against Dallas the Lakers made a fourth quarter run — +13 — with an interesting lineup: Kobe, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Jumaine Jones and Devean George. This is a lineup of guys essentially all the same height, between 6’6” and 6’8”, something Isaiah Thomas might love. Yet it was a group that was able to defend (even Nowitzki) and pass the ball around, two things we have seen little of this season. On the flip side, it was guys Laker fans have high hopes for in Caron Butler (-16) and Chris Mihm (-18) that held the team back for a night. I’m not advocating this new lineup as a starting five, just pointing out something that shows this team has the depth to be successful. With this Laker team we are all watching the games and looking ahead: Can Sasha grow into a good NBA player? (The last two games his defense has been much better, he’s only 20 and with continued work he can become a competent defender. A more consistent jumper would be a nice thing to develop, too.) Are Butler and George part of the long-term future of the Lakers or just the best trade bait? (Can they be both?) Will Slava ever see the court and was his signing Mitch’s biggest error? This team can be turned around, if you want to see what just the right player can do check out tonight’s opponent, Golden State. They were bottom feeders who brought in Barron Davis to create one of the league’s best backcourts and they are 16-10 since. When healthy, there is no question Davis is one of the best points in the league, what has worked in the Bay Area is that he has paired well with Jason Richardson, who can use his quick shot to take advantage of Davis’ passing skills. In the last 10 games Davis has averaged 28.6 points per 48 minutes, 12.5 assists and 2.9 steals (both also per 48). Those assists have raised a number of players scoring averages — Mickael Pietrus has jumped from a season average of 22.48 points per 48 to 27.4 in the last 10 games. By the way, since we all hear a lot of "Why didn't the Lakers get Davis?", I don’t think Davis and Kobe could have blended their games any better than Kobe and Odom. All three of those players like to have the ball in their hands to start plays and two guards who both want the ball all the time is a recipe for disaster. That was moot though, I don't think the Lakers had what New Orleans wanted in a trade. Golden State will join the Lakers in the hunt for an inside presence this off-season — Adonal Foyle is not the answer (but he is pretty expensive and under contract through 2009). Get any help inside and they are a team poised to be much better next year. That is one of the big challenges in the West — Minnesota, Golden State, the Clippers and the Lakers all should be better next year and be playoff contenders. The East, while it has some good teams at the top, is simply not as deep. We’ll see how Sasha’s improved defense stacks up against a very good back court tonight in the Bay Area. We’ll see if a same-size lineup gets on the court tonight, and what it can do.

Monday Morning Reading

2005-04-18T11:22:00.000-07:00

Two quick things to read this morning. First, don’t assume all Laker teams are doing poorly. Second, another great article from Eric Pincus at Hoopsworld — 15 things to think about. One quote to whet your appetite:

Teams aren't going to go out of their way to send talent to the Lakers. In fact they'll probably do their best not to help the Lakers, unless LA is giving them the absolute best offer. In other words, LA will probably have to overpay to get a deal done.

Not The Worst Ever

2005-04-17T11:04:00.000-07:00

With just three games left in the season, counting today’s likely loss to Dallas (how much fun will this game be to watch with both Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant questionable?), The Daily News’ Steve Dilbeck started the first of many Laker season wrap ups and report cards (including starting here on Thursday). His assessment: This is the worst Laker team ever. Is it really? If you look at the numbers, does this team rate out worse than every other Laker team in history? It’s certainly right up there. But when you look at the numbers the worst Los Angeles Laker team is the 74-75 team. When I went looking for the worst team, I narrowed the field down using two criteria — having less than 40 wins and missing the playoffs. That alone left us with just three Los Angeles Laker teams (and one from Minneapolis, the 57-58 squad): this 2004-05 squad (currently 34-45), the 93-94 team (33-49) and the 74-75 team (30-52). Let’s break them down. We’ll start on offense, the one area this season’s team has not been bad. The current Lakers have an offensive efficiency of 104.9 (points per 100 possessions), ranking them 8th in the NBA this year. The 93-94 team had a rating of 101.4, which had them 19th in the league (out of 27 teams). The 74-75 squad had a rating of just 93.4, but you have to keep in mind the league average that season was just 95.1. (Teams averaged a lot more possessions per game back then, the Lakers averaged 109 per game that season and the league average was 107.2. For comparison, the Lakers are averaging 93.8 possessions per game this season and the league median is 93.85 — and that’s up from last season.) All that said, the 74-75 squad was 15th out of 18 teams in the league in offensive rating. As for shooting, this year’s Lakers are shooting a solid 48.5% (eFG%), which ranks them 11th in the league. The 93-94 squad, with Vlade Divac leading the way, shot worse at 46.5%. The Gail Goodrich-led 74-75 team shot 45%, however that is straight shooting percentage, no three-point line then. (You can’t really compare shooting percentages now and then because of the three pointer — this year’s Laker team is shooting just 43.8% with traditional shooting percentage, but they’ve taken 1,763 three pointers, the vast majority of which would not have been taken that far away without the line). Defense was bad on all these teams. This year’s version of the Lakers has a defesive efficiency rating of 107.6 (again, points per 100 possessions), which has them 29th, or next to last in the league. The 93-94 team had a rating of 106, which was 19th in the league. The 74-75 team was the worst defensive team in the NBA that year, with an efficency of 97.4. We can use another measure over time, RPI. This year’s Laker team has an RPI of .491, 19th in the league. The 93-94 squad was .471, 18th that season. The 74-75 team, .463, second to last in the league/ So to recap, the 74-75 team was last in the league defensively and third from the bottom of the league in offense. Something else that should be familiar to current Lakers fans — that 74-75 team didn’t take care of the ball well, losing the nightly turnover battle by an average of 2.2, and they couldn’t keep teams off the offensive glass, allowing opponents to grab 34% of their missed shots (and we thought the 2004-05 Lakers were bad at 29%). Sadly, this year’s edition of the Lakers can be part of the “worst Laker team ever” conversation. But they don’t win the title. (As a side note, this piece would not have been possible without the great basketball-reference site.) -------------------------- By the way, I hope the best for Kobe and his wife. As someone who was watching some of the last season's NBA finals games from his wife’s labor room (she said it was okay, she said it would help distract her from the pain, but the game was pretty painful itself), I get just how scary a pregnancy can be. While my wife’s pregnancy was not near as difficult as what Kobe and his wife are going through, it had moments where I have never been more frightened, true life-threateneing moments. Take your time, be with your wife Kobe. Be a family, that’s what is important. Don’t listen to what others tell you and come back when you’re ready. (By the way, any bets on who the first idiot talk radio guy is who says “Kobe should be playing” is?)

The NBA's Image

2005-04-15T12:51:00.000-07:00

One of the fun things about having a blog is you get interesting email, like the one I got from Ryan, an University of Illinois freshman doing a paper on the NBA’s “image problem” and looking for comments on topics ranging from the proposed age limit to the glory days of the 1980s. We can question whether I was the right person to ask, but it got me to clarify my thoughts about issues around the game I have mulled over for a while. I wrote Ryan back with a lengthy commentary on the image issue, and have decided to post it here as well (with a few edits). Please add your thoughts as well. I see the NBA’s “identity crisis” as more of a culture clash than a series of on-the-court concerns, and it mirrors a clash taking place throughout society but this one is amplified because of the media attention focused on the NBA. On one hand you have the vast majority of the players and a large part of the broader-base of fans watching from home being more urban, younger and part of a “hip-hop generation” (I use that for lack of a better identifying term). But for the most part they are not the ones who can afford to be season ticket holders and they are not the corporate sponsors — that is a group that is white, middle to upper class, older and unsure of all things hip hop. (I accept that these are rather broad categories and certainly not a total picture, but I think it does paint a generally accurate picture.) NBA marketing people try to walk a fine line here, catering to both groups while trying to offend no one. When it comes to their biggest stages, they play it safe — at the All Star game this year the halftime musical line up looked like the Country Music Awards. The only “hip” artists were crossover acts like Outkast. But the NBA is in bed with rap and the hip hop crowd — remember that the vast majority of rap albums are bought by white youth — even if it tries to play that relationship down. Those who do not like the new style may harken back to the “golden era” of Jordan, but he was the first guy to wear his shorts long and had “Air Jordans” out before having your own shoe was common. Jordan ushered in the NBA’s hip-hop relationship. Now, that’s not to say that the NBA and its players don’t bring a fair amount of this “image problem” on themselves. There’s a well-known list here — topped by the fight earlier this season in Detroit — of players acting foolishly at best, like criminals at worst. And the Olympics disaster/style of game plays into this perception. The NBA game has evolved into one of isolation plays rather than the “team play” we think should win. (Even if that perception is flawed — the winner of the NBA title last season was the best team, if healthy the Spurs will be favorites this year because they are the best team. My Lakers had Shaq and Kobe, but won because of the team around them of good, fundamental role players.) By the way, the Olympic loss falls only somewhat on the players and more on the NBA/USA Basketball for the team they assembled. They put together an NBA All-Star team that could sell jerseys with little consideration for the way the game is played internationally. The closer three-point line and wider base of the lane makes it very different than the NBA. We needed Michael Redd and shooters, but put together a team of isolation players. One thing that contributes to this image problem — not just in the NBA but also in all major professional sports — is the money. It’s not just what the players earn so much as it makes them hard to relate to for the average fan. Ken Burns in his Baseball documentary noted that in the 1960s the average major league baseball player made six times what the average American worker made. Now, the average NBA player make $3.7 million a year, about 123 times what an average American worker earns. I’m not sure that the NBA will every get back to the image it had in the 1980s, but I’m not sure it wants to. The fact of the matter is, the league, the owners, the players are all making far more money now and that’s what will drive this. If you say that is driving away fans long term, I counter that in a couple of years when LeBron James is approaching Jordanesqe popularity and is competing for titles, the television ratings and popularity of the sport will be back near all time highs. This is cyclical. Ratings for the playoffs will be down this season not because of the level of play but because the love them/hate them Lakers with Shaq and Kobe won’t be playing in the finals. As for the proposed age limit, that’s a band-aid fix on the issue of fundamental play. Better fundamental play is going to have to come from high schools, youth leagues and work its way on up. But I can’t see the NBA seriously putting in the age limit — I think it’s a negotiating ploy for the ongoing CBA negotiations — because it’s the former high schoolers who are selling tickets (and shoes and jerseys) right now. Garnett, McGrady, James, Stoudemire, Kobe and the list goes on and on to Dwight Howard in Orlando, drafted last year — they are the future of the NBA, hip hop or not.

Forum Blue and Gold

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Need A Hoops Fix?

A Time Of Innocence

Why Are You Reading This?

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Good Steps For Team USA

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Are You Ready For Some Football?

Thoughts Through A Hangover

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Wilt, 1962, Reviewed

Aaron McKie: A Quick Look

Light Reading

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Derek Anderson, a Closer Look

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Point Guards and Other Thoughts

Looking Back at Kurt Rambis

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Summer League Stats

And The Point Is…

Summer League Notes, And More

Kwame Comes To Town

Bad Idea Jeans

SPL Game 3 and Other Notes

Summer League Games 1 & 2

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Waiving Hello

Looking At Antonio Daniels

Should He Stay Or Should He Go Now?

Draft Notes

Laker Draft: First Impression

Draft Party: Going Big and Young

Rumors Gone Wild

The Others

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Sit Back and Enjoy

Let’s Get Small

Draft Party at My Place

CBA Deal Done

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Let’s Go Big

Beating Dancers Into Plow Horses

More Reading

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

The Chicago Bulls, circa 1993-94

Not A Savior, But A Start

He's Baaaack

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Tick…Tick…Tick…Tick…

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Smoke Signals

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Who Are They Rooting For?

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Remembering George Mikan

So Few Things, So Much Time

Reading for a Tuesday

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Would You Give Shaq An Extension?

What Can You Get For A 10 These Days?

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The Final Four

Preakness Picks

Friday Afternoon Humor

We Have Seen The Enemy…..

End of Season Report Card: Center

Earning My Lunch Money

Carnival of the NBA

If Not Phil, Then .....

President Jackson?

End of Season Report Card: Power Forwards

Wednesday Morning Reading

Three Things